Prediction Competition - April 2024

[carolus]

Apr 16, 2024 15:04:20 GMT Tony Otim said:

Apr 16, 2024 12:21:48 GMT iainbhx said:

I don't know much, I asked the MiL about the area as she lives in Pembrokeshire but she doesn't know it well, I've been to a couple of places in the ward but just as a tourist. I noted that Indos had always won here and in the predecessor wards but on a quick check I'd not see a Tory candidate but some Pembroke Indos are basically Condependents. I discounted the candidates who lived in the fleshpots of Haverfordwest, as I imagine it's a place for either very local people or younger retirees. That left three, the Tory did decently as an Indo, has a facebook support group, was born and brought up on a farm in the ward and is a community councillor. The Indo who used to be a Green now lives in the ward but has only moved in the last few years, I think and didn't do that well as a Green. So I worked on that.

That was pretty much my thinking although I guessed (probably erroneously) that the Con label may be an active drag on the vote compared to being an indy under current circumstances...

I thought it might be drag, but there do appear to be pictures of a group of Conservative campaigners out and about, including Stephen Crabb, so I thought that'd probably be worth a few votes.

[batman]

well he stands to lose his seat as things stand & probably he is keen to claw Labour's lead back a bit even though his party is almost an empty shell at the moment.

[andrewp]

I found a bit of online presence/ support for Simister, so I seem to have put him a bit higher than most people have, and I considered putting him to win until I saw he was from Haverfordwest.

It was one of those where putting 20/20/20/20/20 was tempting and any one of the 5 winning wouldn’t be a surprise

[manchesterman]

Forgot about this...despite reading Tony's reminder and making a post-it note for myself ..which I promptly forgot about!

[robbienicoll]

11 entries for the Tuesday contest, all correct but with Right Leaning picking up 5 faults for posting late.

St Ishmaels, Pembrokeshire: 7 No Description (Jenkins) win, with batman, iainbhx, johnloony and kevinf Conservative gain.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hMb2iViR-PfQmlfxBaZAWzTuBv28W_r_SNR_Pfb7evI/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[carlton43]

Apr 16, 2024 18:52:09 GMT manchesterman said:

Forgot about this...despite reading Tony's reminder and making a post-it note for myself ..which I promptly forgot about!

Now that is a statement of yours that I can very readily believe.

[kevinf]

I genuinely thought I’d be the only one risking a Con gain…

[iainbhx]

Good lord, I got the order right.

[Tony Otim]

East Cambs: LD 44.3; Lab 29.8; Con 25.9
Waverley: Farnham 32.4; LD 30.8; Lab 25.4; Con 11.4

[kevinf]

East Cambridgeshire
LD 53, Lab 25, Con 22
Waverley
FR 32, LD 28, Lab 23, Con 17

[Robert Waller]

East Cambs: LD 51; Lab 26; Con 23


Waverley: Farnham 35; LD 32; Lab 20; Con 13

[andrewp]

East Cambs. LD 51 Con 23 Lab 26

Waverley. Res 35 LD 28 Lab 23 Con 14

[corradino]

East Cambs, Ely West: LD 45, Lab 30, Con 25.

Waverley, Farnham Castle: FR 31, LD 29, Lab 27, Con 13.

[carolus]

East Cambridgeshire, Ely West:
LD 50, Con 25, Lab 25

Waverley, Farnham Castle:
LD 35, FR 30, Lab 20, Con 15

[peterl]

East Cambridgeshire, Ely West: LD 48, Con 30, Lab 22

Waverley, Farnham Castle: LD 33, FR 31, Lab 26, Con 10

[manchesterman]

East Cambs: LD 53; Con 25; Lab 22


Waverley: LD 35; FR 30; Lab 21; Con 14

[rightleaning]

East Cambridgeshire, Ely West: LD 50, Con 27, Lab 23
Waverley, Farnham Castle: FR 33, LD 30, Lab 25, Con 12

[iainbhx]

East Cambridgeshire DC, Ely West: LDm 48 Lab 27 Con 25
Waverley DC, Farnham Castle: LDm 31 Res 30 Lab 25 Con 14

[casualobserver]

Very surprised to see the clumping of predictions for East Cambs around a substantial LD hold.

Given the political impact we’ve seen (especially in by-elections) over the last couple of years in and around Cambridge from the proposed Cambridge Congestion charge (hastily abandoned by Labour and the LibDems when they saw how electorally unpopular it was) along with other anti-car measures, I’d have thought that at least one punter may have gone for a Conservative victory there.

[robbienicoll]

12 entries for the Thursday portion of the week, all on time and correct.

Ely West, East Cambridgeshire: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 14.5% (Tony Otim) to 36% (batman).

Farnham Castle, Waverley: 7 Farnham Residents hold, with batman, carolus, iainbhx, manchesterman and peterl Liberal Democrat gain.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hMb2iViR-PfQmlfxBaZAWzTuBv28W_r_SNR_Pfb7evI/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!