Prediction Competition - April 2024

[Robert Waller]

While we are waiting for Robbie, who has said he is otherwise engaged for a few days ...

I think congratulations are due to iainbhx who clearly read Cornwall best, and andrewp likewise for Uckfield. I (along with Tony Otim) predicted the C hold in Desborough and I believe that makes up the top four for the week.

[robbienicoll]

And back!

12 entries to open the month, with manchesterman returning, all on time and correct.

Looe West, Pelynt, Lansallos and Lanteglos, Cornwall: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 18% (iainbhx) to 45% (batman). Iainbhx was closest here with 20.8 faults.

Desborough, North Northamptonshire: 9 Labour gain from Conservative, with kevinf, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Conservative hold. Robert and Kevinf share the individual win with 18.0 faults.

Uckfield New Town, Wealden: 8 Labour gain from Independent, with andrewp, manchesterman, peterl and Right Leaning Independent (French) win. Close here, with manchesterman just ahead on 3.5, andrewp in second on 4.5 and Right Leaning third on 5.5.

Full results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oXXWF7tZrhBa-unLQ_ySoKLP8ooZpdBcYtO7nBgR1oc/edit?usp=sharing.
 

[Tony Otim]

Apr 7, 2024 19:49:12 GMT robbienicoll said:

And back!

12 entries to open the month, with manchesterman returning, all on time and correct.

Looe West, Pelynt, Lansallos and Lanteglos, Cornwall: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 18% (iainbhx) to 45% (batman). Iainbhx was closest here with 20.8 faults.

Desborough, North Northamptonshire: 9 Labour gain from Conservative, with kevinf, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Conservative hold. Robert and Tony share the individual win with 18.0 faults.

Uckfield New Town, Wealden: 8 Labour gain from Independent, with andrewp, manchesterman, peterl and Right Leaning Independent (French) win. Close here, with manchesterman just ahead on 3.5, andrewp in second on 4.5 and Right Leaning third on 5.5.

Full results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oXXWF7tZrhBa-unLQ_ySoKLP8ooZpdBcYtO7nBgR1oc/edit?usp=sharing.
 

I think this should be Robert and Kevin sharing the win for that particular contest.

Congratulations to Robert and Andrew for equal first for the week.

[manchesterman]

Disappointed in my Uckfield prediction of Ind to win by 1 vote when he actually won by 4!

[batman]

you're slipping

[Tony Otim]

Highland: SNP 30.8; McDonald 23.4; Con 16.4; LD 12.4; Lab 9.3; Grn 4.4; Alba 2.6; Sov 0.7 (Ind McDonald win on transfers)
N Yorks: LD 49.8; Con 32.1; Grn 8.4; Lab 6.5; RefUK 3.2

[kevinf]

Highland
SNP 35, Con 21, Ind 20, Lab 8, LD 7.5, Green 4.5, Alba 3.5, Sov 0.5
N Yorks
LD 42, Con 25, Ref 12, Green 11, Lab 10

[johnloony]

Highland: SNP 33 Ind 22 Con 18 LD 10 Lab 9 Grn 4 Alba 3 Sov 1
N Yorks: LD 46 Con 29 Grn 10 Lab 8 RefUK 7

I was lazy so I just took the midpoints of the other two predictions
and rounded up or down a bit to make it add up properly

[manchesterman]

Highland: SNP 32; McDonald 22; Con 22; LD 10; Lab 8; Grn 3; Alba 2.5; Sov 0.5 (Ind McDonald win on transfers)

N Yorks: LD 45; Con 32; Grn 8; Lab 8; RefUK 7

[carolus]

Highland, Inverness South:
SNP 32, Ind 22, LD 17, Con 16, Lab 6, Green 4, Alba 2, Sov 1. Ind on tranfers.

North Yorkshire, Stray, Woodlands & Hookstone:
LD 45, Con 32, Lab 12, Green 6, Reform UK 5

[Robert Waller]

Highland: SNP 30; McDonald 23; Con 17; LD 15; Lab 8; Grn 5; Alba 1.5; Sovereign 0.5 (Ind McDonald win on transfers)

N Yorks: LD 52; Con 31; Grn 6; Lab 7; RefUK 4

[batman]

HIGHLAND, Inverness S : SNP 33 Ind 26 C 14 LD 10 Lab 9 Green 5 Alba 2 Sov 1. Ind win on transfers

N.YORKSHIRE, Stray, Woodlands & Hookstone : LD 55 C 30 Lab 7 Green 5 RefUK 3

[andrewp]

Highland. SNP 31 Ind 25.5 Con 16, LD 13 Lab 8 Green 5 Alba 1 Sov 0.5 Ind win.

North Yorkshire, LD 53 Con 27 Green 8 Lab 8 RefUK 4

[corradino]

Highland, Inverness South: SNP 32, Ind 20, Con 14, LD 13, Lab 11, Green 8, Alba 1.5, Sov 0.5. Ind wins by a whisker on transfers.

N. Yorkshire, Stray etc: LD 41, Con 31, Lab 14, Green 8, Reform 7.

[peterl]

Highland, Inverness South: SNP 31, Ind 25, LD 15, Con 10, Lab 9, Green 7, Alba 2, Sov 1. Ind wins on transfers.

N. Yorkshire, Stray etc: LD 43, Con 27, Lab 15, Green 10, Reform 5.

[iainbhx]

HIGHLAND UA, Inverness South: SNP 30 Ind 27 Con 14.5 LDm 11 Lab 9.5 Green 5.5 Alba 2 Sov 0.5. Ind win on transfers

NORTH YORKSHIRE UA, Stray, Woodlands & Hookstone: LDm 45 Con 35 Grn 10 Lab 6 RefUK 4

[rightleaning]

HIGHLAND, Inverness S : SNP 31, Ind 28, C 16, LD 10, Lab 7, Green 6, Alba 1, Sov 1. Ind win on transfers
N.YORKSHIRE, Stray, Woodlands & Hookstone : LD 51, C 32, Lab 9, Green 5 RefUK 3

[robbienicoll]

12 entries this week, all on time but with corradino picking up 1 fault for going over in North Yorkshire.

Inverness South, Highland: 100% with SNP ahead on first preferences, then with 10 Independent (McDonald) gain from Liberal Democrats after transfers, and johnloony and kevinf SNP gain after transfers.

Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone, North Yorkshire: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (corradino and iainbhx) to 26% (andrewp).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UWafqzCporRc3cnTl2IyfDwQMCOS_vwEzW4GrfLkNGs/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Congrats to Tony Otim for the week, but it's all very close!

[manchesterman]

Apr 11, 2024 23:11:24 GMT robbienicoll said:

12 entries this week, all on time but with corradino picking up 1 fault for going over in North Yorkshire.

Inverness South, Highland: 100% with SNP ahead on first preferences, then with 9 Independent (McDonald) gain from Liberal Democrats after transfers, and johnloony, kevinf and manchesterman SNP gain after transfers.

Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone, North Yorkshire: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (corradino and iainbhx) to 26% (andrewp).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UWafqzCporRc3cnTl2IyfDwQMCOS_vwEzW4GrfLkNGs/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

Point of order please Robbie.  I've been penalised on the database for SNP win after transfers, whereas I correctly predicted an Indy win after transfers   Not that it makes up for a poor effort by me in Inverness.  Did better in N. Yorks though!