Prediction Competition - April 2024

[Tony Otim]

Apr 12, 2024 12:28:20 GMT Robert Waller said:

Congrats to Tony Otim for the week, but it's all very close!

And to yourself, sir, for the lead in the month to date.

[Tony Otim]

Everyone remember that there's a contest on Tuesday next week.

[iainbhx]

Apr 12, 2024 16:55:57 GMT Tony Otim said:

Everyone remember that there's a contest on Tuesday next week.

God help us, a five way race in Little England beyond Wales, 2 of which are Indos and 2 of which are No description. It does have one of the quietest and most lovely, if a little hard to access, beaches in the area. I'd send the MiL for a recce but she just says its all refinery workers and very local people. Lots of good stuff for Andrew though.

[kevinf]

As you will know from my results, I really have no idea what I’m doing here…but I need a dramatic win to go up the table, so..
Pembrokeshire
Con 28, Ind Simister 26, Ind Harwood 22, ND Jenkins 13, ND Worsley 11

[johnloony]

PEMBROKESHIRE: Con 20.2 IndH 20.1 (-)J 20.0 IndS 19.9 (-)W 19.8
EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE: LD 50 Lab 29.9 Con 20.1
WAVERLEY: FR 39.7 Lab 30.1 LD 20.1 Con 10.1

[Tony Otim]

Pembrokeshire: Jenkins 32.1; Harwood 22.1; Con 19.8; Worsley 14.1; Simister 11.9

[Robert Waller]

Pembrokeshire: Jenkins 34; Harwood 20; Con 26; Worsley 10; Simister 10

[andrewp]

Damn the Conservatives for contesting this one and putting it into the competition 😂

Jenkins 28 Simister 24 Con 24 Harwood 13 Worsley 11

[batman]

PEMBROKESHIRE, St Ishmaels : C 27 Simister 22 Jenkins 21 Harwood 16 Worsley 14

E.CAMBRIDGESHIRE, Ely W.: LD 58 C 22 Lab 20

WAVERLEY, Farnham Castle : LD 34 Lab 27 R 25 C 14

[corradino]

Pembrokeshire, St Ishmaels: Jenkins 36, Con 25, Harwood 17, Simister 14, Worsley 8.

[iainbhx]

Hmm. God that was hard work.

Con George 29 ND Jenkins 26 Ind Harwood 21 Ind Simister 14 ND Worsley 10

[peterl]

Pembrokeshire: Jenkins 30; Harwood 24; Con 18; Worsley 15; Simister 13

[johnloony]

Apr 15, 2024 21:06:07 GMT andrewp said:

Damn the Conservatives for contesting this one and putting it into the competition 😂

Jenkins 28 Simister 24 Con 24 Harwood 13 Worsley 11

I think they should be in the competition even when it’s all independent candidates and no parties.

[carolus]

Pembrokeshire, St Ishamaels:
No Description (Jenkins) 35, Con 30, Ind (Harwood) 15, No Description (Worsley) 10, Ind (Simister) 10

[rightleaning]

Whoops a bit late
Pembrokeshire, St Ishamaels: No Description (Jenkins) 38, Con 28, Ind (Harwood) 17, No Description (Worsley) 10, Ind (Simister) 7

[batman]

If anyone has any insight as opposed to guesswork I will be quite surprised, re Pembrokeshire anyway.

[iainbhx]

Apr 16, 2024 11:35:26 GMT batman said:

If anyone has any insight as opposed to guesswork I will be quite surprised, re Pembrokeshire anyway.

I don't know much, I asked the MiL about the area as she lives in Pembrokeshire but she doesn't know it well, I've been to a couple of places in the ward but just as a tourist. I noted that Indos had always won here and in the predecessor wards but on a quick check I'd not see a Tory candidate but some Pembroke Indos are basically Condependents. I discounted the candidates who lived in the fleshpots of Haverfordwest, as I imagine it's a place for either very local people or younger retirees. That left three, the Tory did decently as an Indo, has a facebook support group, was born and brought up on a farm in the ward and is a community councillor. The Indo who used to be a Green now lives in the ward but has only moved in the last few years, I think and didn't do that well as a Green. So I worked on that.

[finsobruce]

Apr 16, 2024 12:21:48 GMT iainbhx said:

Apr 16, 2024 11:35:26 GMT batman said:

If anyone has any insight as opposed to guesswork I will be quite surprised, re Pembrokeshire anyway.

I don't know much, I asked the MiL about the area as she lives in Pembrokeshire but she doesn't know it well, I've been to a couple of places in the ward but just as a tourist. I noted that Indos had always won here and in the predecessor wards but on a quick check I'd not see a Tory candidate but some Pembroke Indos are basically Condependents. I discounted the candidates who lived in the fleshpots of Haverfordwest, as I imagine it's a place for either very local people or younger retirees. That left three, the Tory did decently as an Indo, has a facebook support group, was born and brought up on a farm in the ward and is a community councillor. The Indo who used to be a Green now lives in the ward but has only moved in the last few years, I think and didn't do that well as a Green. So I worked on that.

 

[iainbhx]

Apr 16, 2024 12:23:57 GMT finsobruce said:

Apr 16, 2024 12:21:48 GMT iainbhx said:

I don't know much, I asked the MiL about the area as she lives in Pembrokeshire but she doesn't know it well, I've been to a couple of places in the ward but just as a tourist. I noted that Indos had always won here and in the predecessor wards but on a quick check I'd not see a Tory candidate but some Pembroke Indos are basically Condependents. I discounted the candidates who lived in the fleshpots of Haverfordwest, as I imagine it's a place for either very local people or younger retirees. That left three, the Tory did decently as an Indo, has a facebook support group, was born and brought up on a farm in the ward and is a community councillor. The Indo who used to be a Green now lives in the ward but has only moved in the last few years, I think and didn't do that well as a Green. So I worked on that.

 

I may be guilty of transferring the attitudes of elderly relations from small villages and hamlets in Cardiganshire to those in small villages and hamlets in Little England beyond Wales. I have heard people refer to Carmarthen as the Big City (one relative went once, too big, didn't like it) and Swansea was regarded as somewhere akin to Sodom and Gomorrah.

[Tony Otim]

Apr 16, 2024 12:21:48 GMT iainbhx said:

Apr 16, 2024 11:35:26 GMT batman said:

If anyone has any insight as opposed to guesswork I will be quite surprised, re Pembrokeshire anyway.

I don't know much, I asked the MiL about the area as she lives in Pembrokeshire but she doesn't know it well, I've been to a couple of places in the ward but just as a tourist. I noted that Indos had always won here and in the predecessor wards but on a quick check I'd not see a Tory candidate but some Pembroke Indos are basically Condependents. I discounted the candidates who lived in the fleshpots of Haverfordwest, as I imagine it's a place for either very local people or younger retirees. That left three, the Tory did decently as an Indo, has a facebook support group, was born and brought up on a farm in the ward and is a community councillor. The Indo who used to be a Green now lives in the ward but has only moved in the last few years, I think and didn't do that well as a Green. So I worked on that.

That was pretty much my thinking although I guessed (probably erroneously) that the Con label may be an active drag on the vote compared to being an indy under current circumstances...