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Post by rcronald on May 30, 2024 9:53:01 GMT
It looks like the ANC is going to need both the EFF and the MK to govern in Gauteng
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 30, 2024 10:09:48 GMT
Updated projection: ANC - 50% DA - 21% EFF - 13% PA - 11% FF+ - 3% MK - 1% So touch and go for a majority in Northern Cape. No detailed projection yet, but Dawie Scholtz / News 24 have said that the ANC will (predictably - they won 50.1% last time) lose its majority in Gauteng However, a ragbag of small parties won't help - some of them are corrupt or bizarre! Some? But I suspect that you are little unfair in picking on the small parties for that. |
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Post by rcronald on May 30, 2024 10:12:14 GMT
However, a ragbag of small parties won't help - some of them are corrupt or bizarre! Some? But I suspect that you are little unfair in picking on the small parties for that. ANC-Corrupt DA-Bizarre EFF-Bizarre MK-Corrupt and Bizarre |
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johng
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Post by johng on May 30, 2024 10:43:15 GMT
CSIR's first national projection: ANC - 42% (-16%) DA - 22% (+1%) MK - 13% (new) EFF - 9% (-2%) PA - 2% (new) Democratic Alliance have recovered with whites and possibly made a little ground with blacks (though I may be jumping the gun on that last point), but have bled badly to the PA with their Coloured base.
News24's projections are very similar.
ANC: 42,3% (-15,2)
DA: 21,8% (+1)
MK: 13,6% (New)
EFF: 9% (-1,8)
IFP: 3,5% (-)
PA: 2,2% (+2)
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iain
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Post by iain on May 30, 2024 11:18:16 GMT
Mpumalanga projection:
ANC - 52% (-19%)
MK - 17% (new)
EFF - 13% (0%)
DA - 12% (+2%)
FF+ - 2% (0%)
Shockingly strong showing for MK here (though Zulus do make up about a quarter of the population).
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iain
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Post by iain on May 30, 2024 15:10:08 GMT
Gauteng projection:
ANC - 35% (-15%)
DA - 27% (0%)
EFF - 12% (-3%)
MK - 10% (new)
ActionSA - 4% (new)
FF+ - 3% (-1%)
PA - 2% (+2%)
IFP - 1% (0%)
Rise - 1% (new)
BOSA - 1% (new)
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iain
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Post by iain on May 30, 2024 18:14:43 GMT
And the penultimate two state projections:
North West:
ANC - 59% (-3%)
EFF - 17% (-2%)
DA - 13% (+2%)
FF+ - 3% (-1%)
MK - 2% (new)
ActionSA - 1% (new)
Limpopo:
ANC - 74% (-2%)
EFF - 13% (-2%)
DA - 7% (+2%)
MK - 1% (new)
FF+ - 1% (0%)
ActionSA - 1% (new)
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iain
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Post by iain on May 31, 2024 8:23:16 GMT
And, finally, a projection for KwaZulu Natal:
MK - 44% (new)
ANC - 18% (-36%)
IFP - 18% (+2%)
DA - 14% (0%)
EFF - 2% (-8%)
Meanwhile, the ANC have fallen below 50% in Northern Cape projections and are hovering at 50.4% in Mpumalanga.
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Post by rcronald on May 31, 2024 12:05:10 GMT
All of the votes from the Northern Cape are in, and the ANC has (probably) lost its majority there for the first time since 1994 (when NP won an absolute majority there).
ANC- 49.31% (-8.23%)
DA- 21.21% (-4.3%)
EFF- 13.23% (+3.52%)
PA- 8.64% (+8.64%)
VA+- 1.83% (-0.85%)
NCCM- 1.63% (+1.63%)
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Post by rcronald on May 31, 2024 12:29:09 GMT
Since MK is unlikely to get a majority in KwaZulu-Natal, who’s their most likely coalition partner out of the 3 other major parties in the province? Or do we expect an anti-MK coalition between IFP,INC, and DA?
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on May 31, 2024 12:44:57 GMT
Since MK is unlikely to get a majority in KwaZulu-Natal, who’s their most likely coalition partner out of the 3 other major parties in the province? Or do we expect an anti-MK coalition between IFP,INC, and DA? I don't know! IFP and DA are right wing, but the ANC is not. MK are the largest group, but else exists? EFF? |
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Post by rcronald on May 31, 2024 12:46:25 GMT
Since MK is unlikely to get a majority in KwaZulu-Natal, who’s their most likely coalition partner out of the 3 other major parties in the province? Or do we expect an anti-MK coalition between IFP,INC, and DA? I don't know! IFP and DA are right wing, but the ANC is not. MK are the largest group, but else exists? EFF? EFF is too small in KwaZulu-Natal, and from what I understand, the ANC and MK despise each other. |
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Post by rcronald on May 31, 2024 12:50:14 GMT
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 31, 2024 21:17:12 GMT
Is MK just picking up the old Inkatha vote?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 31, 2024 21:36:14 GMT
Is MK just picking up the old Inkatha vote? There will be a lot of crossover, but given the scale of their victory it will include a good number of otherwise loyal ANC voters. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on May 31, 2024 21:53:37 GMT
Is MK just picking up the old Inkatha vote? There will be a lot of crossover, but given the scale of their victory it will include a good number of otherwise loyal ANC voters. Yes - Inkatha has reduced when Buthelezi was a larger group and the ANC lost out because Zuma - in other words, is a Zulu. So they voted Zulus. |
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johng
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Post by johng on May 31, 2024 23:33:52 GMT
Since MK is unlikely to get a majority in KwaZulu-Natal, who’s their most likely coalition partner out of the 3 other major parties in the province? Or do we expect an anti-MK coalition between IFP,INC, and DA? I don't know! IFP and DA are right wing, but the ANC is not. MK are the largest group, but else exists? EFF? Given this is South Africa, being far left/ right or being white/ black nationalist is pretty irrelevant when forming a coalition.
So for KZN, expect anyone and everyone other than ANC.
It a big positive for ZA that the ANC has finally lost its majority, but it could also be a big negative given what comes next. It's going to be a tough time going forward I think.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on May 31, 2024 23:41:41 GMT
I don't know! IFP and DA are right wing, but the ANC is not. MK are the largest group, but else exists? EFF? Given this is South Africa, being far left/ right or being white/ black nationalist is pretty irrelevant when forming a coalition. So for KZN, expect anyone and everyone other than ANC.
It a big positive for ZA that the ANC has finally lost its majority, but it could also be a big negative given what comes next. It's going to be a tough time going forward I think.
Yes. Trouble is, MK can't really sort a coalition with IFP/DA, particularly economic views. |
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johng
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Post by johng on May 31, 2024 23:57:02 GMT
Given this is South Africa, being far left/ right or being white/ black nationalist is pretty irrelevant when forming a coalition. So for KZN, expect anyone and everyone other than ANC.
It a big positive for ZA that the ANC has finally lost its majority, but it could also be a big negative given what comes next. It's going to be a tough time going forward I think.
Yes. Trouble is, MK can't really sort a coalition with IFP/DA, particularly economic views.
The big issue for DA and IFP is Zuma rather than economic views. That's not to downplay that they are worlds apart economically, but that's reality.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 1, 2024 3:31:56 GMT
Is MK just picking up the old Inkatha vote? Based on the municipal map, (surprisingly) not really… *That is unless you are talking about their pre-Zuma vote, which then would only be partially true. |
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