South African General Election 2024

[matureleft]

It’s on 29 May. 

An interesting FT piece on what’s happening. Zuma has established a party primarily aimed at Zulu voters and promoting anti-foreigner sentiments. That theme has also been picked up by some other opposition parties.

[Merseymike]

Yes. No doubt the KwaZulu-Natal faction could do well - but Zuma clearly is corrupt.

The question is whether ANC get 50% although the myriad of parties end up squabbling and keep power.

[The Bishop]

I expect the ANC will win again - but it is likely they record their lowest vote share yet, and it is very possibly their last election before losing power.

[johng]

It's looks like the most interesting election in South Africa since the end of apartheid.

Current polls suggest the ANC might finally lose their majority. Though it will likely be chaos post-election if it happens in a country which desperately needs stability.

Though it's important to remember that South African municipal coalitions have brought some very disparate groups together (grand anti-ANC coalitions with black nationalists, white nationalists, the left and right all together are not unheard of). I can imagine that a lot of those parties aren't too keen on Zuma's new outfit - though Zuma himself has been banned from standing for parliament.

Another interesting note is that the EFF and Julius Malema have taken a significant 'woke' turn of late. They are probably the most pro-immigrant and pro-LGBT of the larger parties. Though with the limelight elsewhere, Malema may pivot to a more firebrand style of messaging.

[maxque]

Mar 31, 2024 13:09:48 GMT johng said:

It's looks like the most interesting election in South Africa since the end of apartheid.

Current polls suggest the ANC might finally lose their majority. Though it will likely be chaos post-election if it is the case which desperately needs stability.

Though it's important to remember that South African municipal coalitions have brought some very disparate groups together (grand anti-ANC coalitions with black nationalists, white nationalists, the left and right all together are not unheard of). I can imagine that a lot of those parties aren't too keen on Zuma's new outfit - though Zuma himself has been banned from standing for parliament.

Another interesting note is that the EFF and Julius Malema have taken a significant 'woke' turn of late. They are probably the most pro-immigrant and pro-LGBT of the larger parties. Though with the limelight elsewhere, Malema may pivot to a more firebrand style of messaging.

I'm pretty sure Johannesburg ended up being run by an Islamist party who got 1% at the election, at some point (as a compromise candidate).

[johnloony]

Mar 31, 2024 13:09:48 GMT johng said:

It's looks like the most interesting election in South Africa since the end of apartheid.

Current polls suggest the ANC might finally lose their majority. Though it will likely be chaos post-election if it happens in a country which desperately needs stability.

Though it's important to remember that South African municipal coalitions have brought some very disparate groups together (grand anti-ANC coalitions with black nationalists, white nationalists, the left and right all together are not unheard of). I can imagine that a lot of those parties aren't too keen on Zuma's new outfit - though Zuma himself has been banned from standing for parliament.

Another interesting note is that the EFF and Julius Malema have taken a significant 'woke' turn of late. They are probably the most pro-immigrant and pro-LGBT of the larger parties. Though with the limelight elsewhere, Malema may pivot to a more firebrand style of messaging.

After the recent programme on Channel 4 about Orania (presented by Ade Adepitan), I researched it a bit and found that there was a non-negligible number of votes for the EFF cast in Orania (even though it is an entirely white Afrikaner town). As I understand it, people are allowed to go and vote in a general election in whatever place they like, and a number of EFF supporters went to Orania to do so just out of principle and/or taking the piss.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Mar 31, 2024 11:21:30 GMT The Bishop said:

I expect the ANC will win again - but it is likely they record their lowest vote share yet, and it is very possibly their last election before losing power.

If they surrender power willingly. I reckon there's a few who'd push to be like Trump and refuse to go. After all, a lot of the committed democrats, and there never really were all that many, are gone. They've corrupted the economy and the merger of MK and SADF makes the military a bit dodgy. There is a darker undercurrent to that party than accepted.

[uthacalthing]

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orania

Gavin Haynes from Vice News said that, "If you're a certain way inclined, Orania is probably a nice place to live. It's very neighbourly. It's also one of the dullest, most achingly pointless places in Christendom".[82]

What a fascinating place. I would hate it but I see lots to admire. Is it racist and why is that such a big deal? Don't racists have rights?

I think it is the evolution of people who were once racists, maybe still are but have moved on from their defeat and are now cultural holdouts, not unlike the Wee Frees in Lewis and the Pakistanis in Bradford, although better than either because they are not benefit junkies. I see a similarity with the Aboriginal Homestead movement in Northern Territory Australia and a different similarity with Liberland (not in) Serbia/Croatia

The intolerance of this politically well-informed Forum will show through, Orania will not be popular.

It is of course composed entirely on migrants, in this case Afrikaans migrants. Migrants are on balance better people in every regard than the people they migrated from. They have get up and go so they got up and went. They have values and principles. This is true of Hugenots and HK Chinese as it is of Mexicans and Afrikaaners. Poland is full of lazy twats who could not be bothered moving to Aberdeen. 

I wish Orania well 

[johnloony]

Mar 31, 2024 18:18:53 GMT uthacalthing said:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orania

Gavin Haynes from Vice News said that, "If you're a certain way inclined, Orania is probably a nice place to live. It's very neighbourly. It's also one of the dullest, most achingly pointless places in Christendom".[82]

What a fascinating place. I would hate it but I see lots to admire. Is it racist and why is that such a big deal? Don't racists have rights?

I think it is the evolution of people who were once racists, maybe still are but have moved on from their defeat and are now cultural holdouts, not unlike the Wee Frees in Lewis and the Pakistanis in Bradford, although better than either because they are not benefit junkies. I see a similarity with the Aboriginal Homestead movement in Northern Territory Australia and a different similarity with Liberland (not in) Serbia/Croatia

The intolerance of this politically well-informed Forum will show through, Orania will not be popular.

It is of course composed entirely on migrants, in this case Afrikaans migrants. Migrants are on balance better people in every regard than the people they migrated from. They have get up and go so they got up and went. They have values and principles. This is true of Hugenots and HK Chinese as it is of Mexicans and Afrikaaners. Poland is full of lazy twats who could not be bothered moving to Aberdeen. 

I wish Orania well 

The big big big huge huge huge difference between Orania and the old Apartheid system (which, in the programme, Ade Adepitan unfortunately skimmed over as if it was only a trivial difference rather than fundamental) is that Orania minds its own buisness, and the people there do their own menial labour snd grim jobs. They don’t import or exploit black labour, or force black people to live in ghettos or shanty towns.

Under Apartheid, the original idea was that races were supposed to be “separate but equal”, and the white politicians forgot or ignored the “but equal” bit. Some perverted the idea to proclaim white supremacy. The Oranians, on the other hands, were explicit in their interviews in saying that other racial groups are welcome to look after themselves and form their own communities.

I sent them 1,000 Rand (c.£44) but my motives were not necessarily solely for the purpose of maintaining the Oranian system

[uthacalthing]

People invariably see life through the prism of their own circumstances. Empathy is in short supply.

It is almost universally accepted that the objective of Apathied was to oppress the black man and this is an understandable error. The objective of Apartheid had very little to do with the black man. The objective of Apartheid, seen through the prism of those who enacted it was to protect the status of the white man. The black majority was a mere detail to be worked around.

Orania is a far better informed and morally justifiable mechanism to seek the preservation of the Afrikaner Culture.

Who are those Oddball Americans with horse-drawn carts and no buttons?

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Mar 31, 2024 19:46:12 GMT uthacalthing said:

People invariably see life through the prism of their own circumstances. Empathy is in short supply.

It is almost universally accepted that the objective of Apathied was to oppress the black man and this is an understandable error. The objective of Apartheid had very little to do with the black man. The objective of Apartheid, seen through the prism of those who enacted it was to protect the status of the white man. The black majority was a mere detail to be worked around.

Orania is a far better informed and morally justifiable mechanism to seek the preservation of the Afrikaner Culture.

Who are those Oddball Americans with horse-drawn carts and no buttons?

The Amish

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Though, it is interesting that technology is slowly encroaching on them in some minor ways. Their horse drawn carts have to have battery operated low voltage lights, for instance. As seen here:

[uthacalthing]

Mar 31, 2024 20:34:45 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

The Amish

Thank you

So dear forum.

Do we believe in a world where minority cultures are allowed to survive and where people who do not wish to be part of your inclusive society are permitted to exclude themselves from it?

The "uncontacted" peoples of the Amazon and New Guinea
The Homestead people of Aboriginal Australia
The Amish
The Wee Frees and their kindred brethren in the USA
Orania.

[uthacalthing]

Mar 31, 2024 20:37:44 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Though, it is interesting that technology is slowly encroaching on them in some minor ways. Their horse drawn carts have to have battery operated low voltage lights, for instance. As seen here:

danszczesny.substack.com/p/the-great-horse-manure-crisis-of

if these people had their way we would be knee deep in horse dung. 

[johnloony]

Mar 31, 2024 20:42:14 GMT uthacalthing said:

Mar 31, 2024 20:34:45 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

The Amish

Thank you

So dear forum.

Do we believe in a world where minority cultures are allowed to survive and where people who do not wish to be part of your inclusive society are permitted to exclude themselves from it?

The "uncontacted" peoples of the Amazon and New Guinea
The Homestead people of Aboriginal Australia
The Amish
The Wee Frees and their kindred brethren in the USA
Orania.

North Sentinel island, which is the nearest equivalent we have to a neighbouring planet with intelligent aliens

[markgoodair]

Increasing looking like the ANC will have their worst ever election result and may well lose their majority .

[Terry Weldon]

May 23, 2024 15:09:01 GMT markgoodair said:

Increasing looking like the ANC will have their worst ever election result and may well lose their majority .

Almost certainly they will lose their majority and will be forced into a coalition. The big question is, with whom? One possibility would be with the two rabble rousing populist parties, Economic Freedom Fighters and Zuma's MK (Mkhonto we Sizwe, "Spear of the Nation"). Both are willing to use violence for political ends, and both have been as much mired in corruption allegations as the ANC  

Alternatively, they could join up with the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance - but that may not go down too well with the DA's own supporters, who are hoping that a broad based anti ANC coalition could scrape together a majority of their own.  As a former S African who began my own political activity in 1970 Cape Town, knocking on doors for Helen Suzman's Progressive Party (which later morphed in the Progressive Federal Party, the Democratic Party and then the DA), I feel the DA has in recent years rather lost its way, and has not fully embraced the need to embrace diversity and correct the wrongs of the past. 

In this election, I'm particularly interested in three smaller parties that have attracted some serious talent, and have a degree of support across racial boundaries: Rise Mzansi, Action SA, and BOSA (Build One South Africa). They won't get too much support this time, but if they can make at least some inroads and then perform well in parliament, they could be a force in 2029.

[uthacalthing]

Mar 31, 2024 20:42:14 GMT uthacalthing said:

Mar 31, 2024 20:34:45 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

The Amish

Thank you

So dear forum.

Do we believe in a world where minority cultures are allowed to survive and where people who do not wish to be part of your inclusive society are permitted to exclude themselves from it?

The "uncontacted" peoples of the Amazon and New Guinea
The Homestead people of Aboriginal Australia
The Amish
The Wee Frees and their kindred brethren in the USA
Orania.

My thanks to johnloony for being willing to engage. The rest of you muttering under your breath, not so much. 

[Sandy]

May 29, 2024 5:38:19 GMT uthacalthing said:

Mar 31, 2024 20:42:14 GMT uthacalthing said:

Thank you

So dear forum.

Do we believe in a world where minority cultures are allowed to survive and where people who do not wish to be part of your inclusive society are permitted to exclude themselves from it?

The "uncontacted" peoples of the Amazon and New Guinea
The Homestead people of Aboriginal Australia
The Amish
The Wee Frees and their kindred brethren in the USA
Orania.

My thanks to johnloony for being willing to engage. The rest of you muttering under your breath, not so much. 

What are you senselessly wittering about now?

[johng]

May 23, 2024 15:09:01 GMT markgoodair said:

Increasing looking like the ANC will have their worst ever election result and may well lose their majority .

That still looks likely on election day.

As the country lurches from one crisis the the next, it was only a matter of time before the ANC's grip over the electorate began to soften.

Don't forget, a majority of today's voters were too young to vote 1994.