stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 2:42:18 GMT
North Down
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Post by boondock on Mar 14, 2024 15:13:10 GMT
Tim collins former lieutenant colonel in the RIR has been selected by UUP. A good personality for the UUP to get but can't see him getting many votes here all the sensible voters will be piling in behind Farry.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 18, 2024 10:29:25 GMT
Tim collins former lieutenant colonel in the RIR has been selected by UUP. A good personality for the UUP to get but can't see him getting many votes here all the sensible voters will be piling in behind Farry. Would Alex Easton stand a chance of winning if the DUP didn’t stand a candidate? He was elected easily as an independent at the last Assembly election and would be free from any issues the DUP brand caused his previous attempts With Farry there might be some thoughts in voters around such a strongly unionist area being represented by a non-unionist, even with the more liberal leanings that there clearly are |
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Post by boondock on Mar 18, 2024 15:35:39 GMT
Easton is very popular in the area and would have a chance if he was a DUP backed independent, however he suffered a tragedy not long ago were his parents died in a house fire so I don't know if he would be putting himself forward this time. As for Farry being non-unionist I don't think it matters for a large section of North Down but I'm sure it will be used against him in the run up to the vote
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 18, 2024 17:29:38 GMT
Easton is very popular in the area and would have a chance if he was a DUP backed independent, however he suffered a tragedy not long ago were his parents died in a house fire so I don't know if he would be putting himself forward this time. As for Farry being non-unionist I don't think it matters for a large section of North Down but I'm sure it will be used against him in the run up to the vote Yes I remember hearing that, horrible thing to happen and he must still feel traumatised I know voting along those lines is obviously diminishing in Northern Ireland but unionism has had a tough last few elections and Donaldson seems to be trying to reach out to more moderate unionism again. Alliance will be pushing for Belfast East as usual, after the last Westminster and Assembly elections they also are in a good position to challenge for Lagan Valley, East Antrim and Strangford. With talk of border polls it just strikes me that those communities could get a bit nervous at the message it sends if unionist Westminster representation gets reduced to something like four or five seats |
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right
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Post by right on Mar 20, 2024 11:16:31 GMT
Tim collins former lieutenant colonel in the RIR has been selected by UUP. A good personality for the UUP to get but can't see him getting many votes here all the sensible voters will be piling in behind Farry. Sensible unionists are still unionists, and Farry and the Alliance generally have taken the Alliance into a green direction. That's tying DUP types in knots as Alliance voters are not seeing that. But that's a mater of time, and that time is unlikely to be before this election. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 20, 2024 11:52:44 GMT
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Apr 20, 2024 19:52:40 GMT
Absolute car crash with no discernible understanding of politics in Northern Ireland (or of who's voting Alliance or why). |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 20, 2024 20:46:29 GMT
Is there is a town called Canterbury in Northern Ireland or that man lives in Kent? |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Apr 20, 2024 20:58:35 GMT
Is there is a town called Canterbury in Northern Ireland or that man lives in Kent? He has lived in England for about forty years and shows no sign of having updated his priors since he left. Certainly the views in the article could have been beamed in from the bar of Crawfordsburn Golf Club circa 1978. He has, however, promised to buy a house in North Down if he wins.
The thing is that the UUP has a weakness for military officer types and while Beattie is from a fairly ordinary background and seems to have a grasp of the realities, you previously had former submarine commander Steve Aiken who seems to display the aftereffects of prolonged oxygen deprivation and Collins - whose reputation has essentially been trading off a speech before the second Gulf War for the last two decades - makes Submarine Steve look like a political genius.
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Post by irish observer on Apr 21, 2024 16:36:32 GMT
Agree with Obsie's analysis here. I would see Farry hold with an increased majority. DUP best candidate I would think they could run would be Weir who is ex-UUP but who won't be running and they've never held the seat ever.
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Apr 21, 2024 23:54:31 GMT
There is also the issue that Alliance voters - even North Down Alliance voters - are a good deal less likely to be susceptible to a Green Scare these days than their predecessors in the Crawfordsburn Golf Club bar in 1978 would have been.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 22, 2024 14:19:18 GMT
I'd also point out that in NI it's not the councils who deal with potholes - roads are handled by the Department for Infrastructure.
And I'm sceptical that an argument warning that immigration will cause a collapse in public services is going to be convincing in NI, where the same collapse has occurred with substantially less immigration.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 23, 2024 12:53:45 GMT
Agree with Obsie's analysis here. I would see Farry hold with an increased majority. DUP best candidate I would think they could run would be Weir who is ex-UUP but who won't be running and they've never held the seat ever. I think the DUP will stand aside for Alex Easton if he wants to run |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 24, 2024 8:52:24 GMT
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 28, 2024 15:24:36 GMT
Certainly makes things interesting
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 28, 2024 15:40:54 GMT
Certainly makes things interesting Alliance will win. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 28, 2024 15:42:53 GMT
Certainly makes things interesting Alliance will win. Quite possibly but I don’t think it’s a certainty |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 28, 2024 15:48:13 GMT
Well - at least two Unionists (UUP, Independent), maybe another two (DUP, TUV).
Alliance will easily win.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 28, 2024 16:06:36 GMT
Well - at least two Unionists (UUP, Independent), maybe another two (DUP, TUV). Alliance will easily win. Well Easton clearly has a strong personal vote, he was easily re-elected to the Assembly as an independent and North Down has a history of electing independents and minor party figures. True he failed to gain the seat in 2019 but there was clearly an anti-Brexit and DUP backlash so not having the party label could help him win some votes from Alliance There’s more than a good chance the DUP will stand aside for Easton given his history in the party, as we’ve seen things are not going well with the UUP candidate and it’s difficult to be certain what the TUV will do |
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