North Down

[stb12]

Jul 5, 2024 4:18:28 GMT thinwhiteduke said:

Independent gain, 7k majority.

Wow, not even close

[rcronald]

It looks like I somehow voted for every winner in NI…

[eastmidlandsright]

One of the best results of the night. After 23 years this constituency has finally been recovered.

[stb12]

Jul 5, 2024 14:15:27 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

One of the best results of the night. After 23 years this constituency has finally been recovered.

Take it you mean in the political spectrum sense? Sylvia Hermon may have been more on the left but she was still very much a unionist MP

[eastmidlandsright]

Jul 5, 2024 14:18:45 GMT stb12 said:

Jul 5, 2024 14:15:27 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

One of the best results of the night. After 23 years this constituency has finally been recovered.

Take it you mean in the political spectrum sense? Sylvia Hermon may have been more on the left but she was still very much a unionist MP

With Unionists like Lady Hermon you might as well elect nationalists. 

[stb12]

Jul 5, 2024 14:22:15 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

Jul 5, 2024 14:18:45 GMT stb12 said:

Take it you mean in the political spectrum sense? Sylvia Hermon may have been more on the left but she was still very much a unionist MP

With Unionists like Lady Hermon you might as well elect nationalists. 

I can't think of any particular votes or positions she took that were damaging to the union (albeit i'm not claiming to be an expert on records like that). Surely it's as legitimate to be a Unionist but on the centre left?

[irish observer]

Alliance have to make a decision for the future here. Easton is basically well-established politician but basically ex-Dup with DUP endorsement and TUV endorsement who all said get rid of Farry as he's not safe on the Union. So Alliance attitude straight away is Easton isn't a real Independent but some-one else's proxy. Its all about how you market a message.

[Smartie]

Jul 5, 2024 14:22:15 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

Jul 5, 2024 14:18:45 GMT stb12 said:

Take it you mean in the political spectrum sense? Sylvia Hermon may have been more on the left but she was still very much a unionist MP

With Unionists like Lady Hermon you might as well elect nationalists. 

Not true, one of NI’s biggest failings of its unionist working class communities is the lack of left wing / left of centre unionism. Whilst North Down is not a working class seat, Hermon was a centerist/ left of centre unionist. The unionist establishment in the DUP/UUP/TUV/UKU have all failed working class Protestants particularly the men in the society they have provided for them in their 100 years of dominance. As a working class man that saddens me.

[stb12]

Jul 6, 2024 15:37:18 GMT irish observer said:

Alliance have to make a decision for the future here. Easton is basically well-established politician but basically ex-Dup with DUP endorsement and TUV endorsement who all said get rid of Farry as he's not safe on the Union. So Alliance attitude straight away is Easton isn't a real Independent but some-one else's proxy. Its all about how you market a message.

I believe North Down demographically is still the most unionist constituency in Northern Ireland, closely followed by Belfast East and both of course have had Alliance strength for some time

With the talk of a border poll and Sinn Féin’s continuing status as the largest party there is likely to be some nervousness in these places about electing a non-unionist now, I thought Easton had more of a chance than most seemed to think without the DUP brand baggage and the anti-Brexit protest probably dying down somewhat. But I still wouldn’t have thought he’d win quite so easily

With Gavin Robinson having built a moderate image for himself as well it may be difficult for Alliance going forward in these two places unless they can really change the image of Robinson and Easton as you say

[irish observer]

Remember North Down was the most pro-Agreement constituency in the referendum for the GFA. The most middle class so voted for the new dispensation accordingly. The only one of the 18 to vote no was North Antrim. UUPs critical mistake was not to sell a political victory. SDLP and SF sold a political victory as did Alliance, NIWC and PUP which saw them win seats. Eventually when DUP copped on politically they supplant UUP organisation. Who has buyers remorse the UUP grandees and some middle class Unionist voters who have never voted since the Referendum. Also NI Labour, elected to the Forum as the tenth party. Not resourced electorally and had Blair helped Mowlan and them seiously politically could have tried to build a cross-community political organisation. Who also has serious buyers remorse: Fianna Fáil members who argued for us to organise in the North since the GFA to embrace the popularity of Bertie Ahern, the Peace Dividend and a potential northern political organisation that was there to develop like a sleeping giant.

UDP fell at the Assembly when McMichael failed to get elected in Lagan Valley and then he died. What remained was gobbled up by DUP or left political control. PUP died with David Ervine's heart. NIWC never got the credit they deserved. Alliance were stunted at the Forum election and have grown stronger since their elected reps have been attacked and offices burned since Flegs protests and have received and held power partiularly Belfast.

Who in effect wrote the GFA? Sadly the SDLP, basically much of it is a carbon copy of policy documents they wrote throughout the 1970s to the 1990s. They know this but most of their great ones who wrote them are now dead or retired and their credit has been allowed to be forgotten. This is cold political reality. Who gave up critical points: The Irish Government and Fianna Fáil, Bertie Ahern even left his mother's funeral early for example. Blair gave the hard yards but Mo did the work in the trenches and took the abuse as a result in a political bearpit where women get abuse even someone with cancer.

DUP set out to wreck it and then basically implemented it through St Andrews with McGuinness for which Paisley then gets toppled from his Church he founded, his Orange Order and his party and his son fell last week to Jim Allister who used be a friend of Paisley Senior.

Ever hear of the domino effect or domino theory or free riders in economics. Or game theory for that matter in relation to politics and negotiation.

Obviously without those giants who negotiated and we know who they were and are there would have been no Agreement in 1998 or Assembly since and it all comes down to understanding simple game theory and the art of politics and negotiation.

As I once said at a lecture: "Politics is the art of compromise and if you can't compromise, you get nothing done."

As true as ever in history. Whither the relations between our two Islands.

[seanf]

Jul 8, 2024 8:27:18 GMT stb12 said:

Jul 6, 2024 15:37:18 GMT irish observer said:

Alliance have to make a decision for the future here. Easton is basically well-established politician but basically ex-Dup with DUP endorsement and TUV endorsement who all said get rid of Farry as he's not safe on the Union. So Alliance attitude straight away is Easton isn't a real Independent but some-one else's proxy. Its all about how you market a message.

I believe North Down demographically is still the most unionist constituency in Northern Ireland, closely followed by Belfast East and both of course have had Alliance strength for some time

With the talk of a border poll and Sinn Féin’s continuing status as the largest party there is likely to be some nervousness in these places about electing a non-unionist now, I thought Easton had more of a chance than most seemed to think without the DUP brand baggage and the anti-Brexit protest probably dying down somewhat. But I still wouldn’t have thought he’d win quite so easily

With Gavin Robinson having built a moderate image for himself as well it may be difficult for Alliance going forward in these two places unless they can really change the image of Robinson and Easton as you say

I think that Stephen Farry was the wrong fit for the constituency.  The voters here want an MP who is at least a unionist, if not a Unionist. Ditto East Belfast, and I suspect, next time around, Lagan Valley.

[stb12]

Jul 9, 2024 11:18:22 GMT seanf said:

Jul 8, 2024 8:27:18 GMT stb12 said:

I believe North Down demographically is still the most unionist constituency in Northern Ireland, closely followed by Belfast East and both of course have had Alliance strength for some time

With the talk of a border poll and Sinn Féin’s continuing status as the largest party there is likely to be some nervousness in these places about electing a non-unionist now, I thought Easton had more of a chance than most seemed to think without the DUP brand baggage and the anti-Brexit protest probably dying down somewhat. But I still wouldn’t have thought he’d win quite so easily

With Gavin Robinson having built a moderate image for himself as well it may be difficult for Alliance going forward in these two places unless they can really change the image of Robinson and Easton as you say

I think that Stephen Farry was the wrong fit for the constituency.  The voters here want an MP who is at least a unionist, if not a Unionist. Ditto East Belfast, and I suspect, next time around, Lagan Valley.

I think Naomi Long is a unionist at heart, certainly her background indicates that, but being the leader of Alliance will mean being particularly strong on the neutrality point

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Some NI constituencies fit being 'hard-line'. From Lady Sylvia onwards to Parry, North Down showed that it wasn't one of those seats. Currently it thinks it may be. Time will tell.

[East Anglian Lefty]

One factor is that being a unionist or a nationalist is not necessarily the entirety of somebody's identity. For some people it is and in some constituencies that is enough to make them comparatively safe. For others, they may be a unionist in that they would vote to stay in the UK in a Border Poll, but it doesn't necessarily mean they have much sympathy for or interest in other aspects of unionist identity. In 2019, Farry was able to get elected partly because he was able to build a big enough coalition of unionist voters who didn't think unionism was the key issue. In 2024 he didn't manage to repeat that.

[stb12]

Jul 10, 2024 9:03:38 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

One factor is that being a unionist or a nationalist is not necessarily the entirety of somebody's identity. For some people it is and in some constituencies that is enough to make them comparatively safe. For others, they may be a unionist in that they would vote to stay in the UK in a Border Poll, but it doesn't necessarily mean they have much sympathy for or interest in other aspects of unionist identity. In 2019, Farry was able to get elected partly because he was able to build a big enough coalition of unionist voters who didn't think unionism was the key issue. In 2024 he didn't manage to repeat that.

North Down voted remain which was unusual for a unionist seat I think, Sylvia Hermon was in touch with that and with 2019 being such a Brexit focussed election Farry clearly managed to pick up the majority of her voters especially with the DUP being blamed for Brexit complicity

That’s obviously died down as the main issue even if not gone entirely because of the protocol debate. It does seem like you say that unionist and nationalist not solely determining identity is growing in Northern Ireland, but nevertheless for people that don’t want a Border poll they might be considering what a vote for Alliance means in that context especially with Sinn Fein clearly making some push for one (the ambiguity in the GFA about how the Secretary of State judges whether a BP should happen probably doesn’t help)

For here as far as I can tell Easton was the ideal candidate and Alliance would likely still have held if someone else had been the main challenger. He’s clearly locally popular as could be seen when he easily topped the poll as an independent in the last Assembly election, and not having the baggage of being the DUP candidate took away something that may have held some people back

[East Anglian Lefty]

North Down wasn't the only unionist seat to vote remain and it didn't do so that strongly (52.4% remain) but what's significant is that it was the only seat where the unionist population clearly voted remain - even in Fermanagh & South Tyrone, which had a UUP MP at the time and where remain got 58.6%, it's likely that unionists backed leave but were outweighed by nationalists being much more strongly remain.

[OWL]

Out of interest, where are data available on GFA referendum results?

[East Anglian Lefty]

Data for the GFA referendum was deliberately not reported at a local authority or constituency level (though turnout figures are available at www.ark.ac.uk/elections/fref98.htm)

The general belief is that North Antrim voted against, but every other constituency voted for.

[stb12]

Jul 10, 2024 12:12:29 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Data for the GFA referendum was deliberately not reported at a local authority or constituency level (though turnout figures are available at www.ark.ac.uk/elections/fref98.htm)

The general belief is that North Antrim voted against, but every other constituency voted for.

The Ian Paisley effect there no doubt

[OWL]

Jul 10, 2024 12:12:29 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Data for the GFA referendum was deliberately not reported at a local authority or constituency level (though turnout figures are available at www.ark.ac.uk/elections/fref98.htm)

The general belief is that North Antrim voted against, but every other constituency voted for.

Thanks. So I take it the claim North Down was the most pro-Agreement constituency is an assumption