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Post by irish observer on May 26, 2024 5:26:50 GMT
Given Buckley's selection I now favour Eastwood to take the seat. Paul Givan appeared on The View on Thursday with Eastwood and Butler of the UUP and was grilled to say was he standing for the DUP. As a former senior DUP figure to not admit it publicly damaged him and the party which also demonstrates how the DUP organisation is damaged in Lagan Valley over Donaldson.
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Post by johnloony on May 26, 2024 15:15:03 GMT
Given Buckley's (DUP) selection I now favour Eastwood (Alliance) to take the seat. Paul Givan (DUP) appeared on The View on Thursday with Eastwood and Butler of the UUP and was grilled to say was he standing for the DUP. As a former senior DUP figure to not admit it publicly damaged him and the party which also demonstrates how the DUP organisation is damaged in Lagan Valley over Donaldson. Fixed that for the benefit of the people who don't necessarily remember which party thousands of people are in. |
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Post by markgoodair on May 30, 2024 16:16:06 GMT
Sinn Fein have confirmed that they won’t run a candidate here.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 7, 2024 22:23:29 GMT
Jonathan Buckley (DUP)
Robbie Butler (UUP)
Patricia Denver (Green)
Sorcha-Lucy Eastwood (Alliance)
Simon Lee (SDLP)
Lorna Smyth (TUV)
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 18, 2024 21:59:32 GMT
Reckon this is leaning DUP but would not rule out an Alliance gain.
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Post by irish observer on Jun 18, 2024 23:18:31 GMT
As has been said elsewhere Eastwood is very appealing on the eye perhaps encouraging a certain male vote in her direction. Also The Donaldson situation can't help the DUP. Will be tight but Alliance might squeak it.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
Member is Online
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Post by nyx on Jun 18, 2024 23:21:56 GMT
Reckon this is leaning DUP but would not rule out an Alliance gain. I believe Alliance is campaigning heavily here, moreso than in Strangford. My instinct is that Lagan Valley and Belfast East are leaning towards a narrow Alliance win whereas North Down and Strangford are leaning towards a narrow loss. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135 
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Post by Foggy on Jun 19, 2024 0:30:21 GMT
Since Lagan Valley isn't a council area I don't think it can have a presidium, Mods. Curse Autocorrect again!
But I treated the poll as a prediction anyway and have voted in it.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Jun 19, 2024 6:53:07 GMT
Since Lagan Valley isn't a council area I don't think it can have a presidium, Mods. Curse Autocorrect again! But I treated the poll as a prediction anyway and have voted in it. Goddammit I’m sure everyone gets the idea though  |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 28, 2024 22:07:33 GMT
It's been fun watching the poll on this thread swing so decisively over to an Alliance gain. Certainly looks that way in my opinion.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on Jun 29, 2024 18:09:42 GMT
Eastwood's social media (taking into account the Mandy Rice-Davies element) is certainly growing in confidence.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 1, 2024 21:07:45 GMT
There is a depth of antipathy to Catholics in this constituency and, whilst I find Sorcha Eastwood an impressive woman with a remarkable backstory, I think she may well fall short. Her main hope may be that DUP voters express disappointment with the Jeffrey Donaldson situation by staying at home or breaking for Robbie Butler, a pretty impressive guy as well. Will those tempted to vote TUV really risk electing a non-Unionist? I just feel like it might be a stretch too far. I am baffled as to why Paul Givan isn't the DUP candidate, as I reckon he would have more obviously secured the DUP win.
So, against the grain, and I will be happy to be wrong, I see a DUP hold.
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Post by gamblingguru on Jul 4, 2024 19:59:25 GMT
Likewise my gut feel here is against the majority and the betting - I think the DUP will hold here. There is a big enough vote here that would want a unionist to represent them and Ive played at the 5/4 that was available on the DUP.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 5, 2024 1:21:52 GMT
DUP have conceded the seat is lost to Alliance.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 5, 2024 2:46:02 GMT
Wow.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 2:47:22 GMT
Lovely stuff
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 5, 2024 2:55:39 GMT
Alliance gain, 3k majority.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 5, 2024 14:20:33 GMT
Absolutely disgraceful result. Just as these Alliance vermin get exterminated in one seat that pop up somewhere else and con their way into yet another unionist seat.
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Post by irish observer on Jul 5, 2024 16:43:06 GMT
Alliance gain, 3k majority. Delighted for Eastwood, an excellent result and a very good candidate. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 5, 2024 16:48:08 GMT
Absolutely disgraceful result. Just as these Alliance vermin get exterminated in one seat that pop up somewhere else and con their way into yet another unionist seat. Donaldson + not selecting Givan badly hurt the DUP. The results in North Down and Belfast East are far more important. |
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