stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 9, 2024 10:12:24 GMT
The DUP have not historically been that interested in selecting local candidates - Sammy Wilson is a Belfast figure without any particular East Antrim connections; Iris Robinson was from Castlereagh rather than Strangford; Willie McCrea was from Mid Ulster and half the reason he lost South Antrim in 2015 was that he was clearly less than interested in his new seat. As they've got more establisment and developed a wider local base they've got slightly more localist, but again imposing Little-Pengelly in Lagan Valley and shifting Poots does show that that's far from a hard rule. Plus this seat is Belfast suburbia anyway, so I'm not sure that the localist card plays as well here as it might do further out into the countryside. So it wouldn't be a shock if they pick an MLA from a different constituency. Interesting thanks, any MLAs in particular you think could be contenders for that? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 9, 2024 12:29:06 GMT
I wouldn't claim any great expertise on that - my knowledge of second-rank figures in the DUP is nothing to write home about. But assuming Poots is happy as Speaker, the DUP want to keep Little-Pengelly in Holyrood and Givan doesn't want it, I'd think the biggest hitters would be Jonathan Buckley, Diane Dodds, Gordon Lyons and maybe Pam Cameron? Or it could equally well be a local figure.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 9, 2024 14:00:00 GMT
I wouldn't claim any great expertise on that - my knowledge of second-rank figures in the DUP is nothing to write home about. But assuming Poots is happy as Speaker, the DUP want to keep Little-Pengelly in Holyrood and Givan doesn't want it, I'd think the biggest hitters would be Jonathan Buckley, Diane Dodds, Gordon Lyons and maybe Pam Cameron? Or it could equally well be a local figure. Ummm... not sure we want her at Holyrood, you can keep her at Stormont thank you very much. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 9, 2024 14:12:24 GMT
I wouldn't claim any great expertise on that - my knowledge of second-rank figures in the DUP is nothing to write home about. But assuming Poots is happy as Speaker, the DUP want to keep Little-Pengelly in Holyrood and Givan doesn't want it, I'd think the biggest hitters would be Jonathan Buckley, Diane Dodds, Gordon Lyons and maybe Pam Cameron? Or it could equally well be a local figure. Ummm... not sure we want her at Holyrood, you can keep her at Stormont thank you very much. Although can we Scots really claim to have much better quality at Holyrood these days?  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 9, 2024 14:22:22 GMT
I wouldn't claim any great expertise on that - my knowledge of second-rank figures in the DUP is nothing to write home about. But assuming Poots is happy as Speaker, the DUP want to keep Little-Pengelly in Holyrood and Givan doesn't want it, I'd think the biggest hitters would be Jonathan Buckley, Diane Dodds, Gordon Lyons and maybe Pam Cameron? Or it could equally well be a local figure. Ummm... not sure we want her at Holyrood, you can keep her at Stormont thank you very much. You're more likely to have an independence referendum in the next decade than we are to have a border poll, might be handy to have a politician whose da knows a guy who can get hold of some knock-off assault rifles? |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 9, 2024 14:27:15 GMT
Ummm... not sure we want her at Holyrood, you can keep her at Stormont thank you very much. Although can we Scots really claim to have much better quality at Holyrood these days? But at least they're our own useless nutters, importing the DUP is highly unlikely to improve matters... |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Apr 9, 2024 16:08:36 GMT
The DUP have not historically been that interested in selecting local candidates - Sammy Wilson is a Belfast figure without any particular East Antrim connections; Iris Robinson was from Castlereagh rather than Strangford; Willie McCrea was from Mid Ulster and half the reason he lost South Antrim in 2015 was that he was clearly less than interested in his new seat. As they've got more establisment and developed a wider local base they've got slightly more localist, but again imposing Little-Pengelly in Lagan Valley and shifting Poots does show that that's far from a hard rule. Plus this seat is Belfast suburbia anyway, so I'm not sure that the localist card plays as well here as it might do further out into the countryside. So it wouldn't be a shock if they pick an MLA from a different constituency. Interesting thanks, any MLAs in particular you think could be contenders for that? There's always Mervyn Storey? He's been left with only a local councillor role for the last two years, so they might want to reward him. |
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Post by therealriga on Apr 9, 2024 16:28:14 GMT
The DUP have not historically been that interested in selecting local candidates - Sammy Wilson is a Belfast figure without any particular East Antrim connections; Iris Robinson was from Castlereagh rather than Strangford; Willie McCrea was from Mid Ulster and half the reason he lost South Antrim in 2015 was that he was clearly less than interested in his new seat. As they've got more establisment and developed a wider local base they've got slightly more localist, but again imposing Little-Pengelly in Lagan Valley and shifting Poots does show that that's far from a hard rule. Plus this seat is Belfast suburbia anyway, so I'm not sure that the localist card plays as well here as it might do further out into the countryside. So it wouldn't be a shock if they pick an MLA from a different constituency. As far as I know Sammy Wilson, though originating in Belfast and being associated with there, was an East Antrim resident at the time of his election. (I've had a look for his address online and the nomination papers to confirm this but can't find them.) Iris Robinson is from Belfast. Castlereagh isn't really a place anyone would say they're from. She'd served as a councillor for Dundonald from 1989 onwards and Dundonald was added to Strangford (from North Down) for the 1997 election, so she was a local candidate. |
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Post by batman on Apr 9, 2024 16:43:11 GMT
Of course that's a Lib Dem area now  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 9, 2024 20:35:03 GMT
Paul Givan was interviewed on local radio tonight and asked if he was interested in being the DUP candidate here. He didn't explicitly say that he was, but he had multiple opportunities to deny it and pointedly did not take them. So my assumption would be that he is the most likely candidate.
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Apr 9, 2024 20:53:25 GMT
I wouldn't claim any great expertise on that - my knowledge of second-rank figures in the DUP is nothing to write home about. But assuming Poots is happy as Speaker, the DUP want to keep Little-Pengelly in Holyrood and Givan doesn't want it, I'd think the biggest hitters would be Jonathan Buckley, Diane Dodds, Gordon Lyons and maybe Pam Cameron? Or it could equally well be a local figure. Ummm... not sure we want her at Holyrood, you can keep her at Stormont thank you very much. I presume she would identify as "Scots-Irish", so maybe she'd consider herself eligible? |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Apr 9, 2024 21:42:46 GMT
Ummm... not sure we want her at Holyrood, you can keep her at Stormont thank you very much. I presume she would identify as "Scots-Irish", so maybe she'd consider herself eligible? Dubliner Christine May had the OO out knocking doors for labour in Glenrothes. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Apr 9, 2024 22:30:33 GMT
Paul Givan was interviewed on local radio tonight and asked if he was interested in being the DUP candidate here. He didn't explicitly say that he was, but he had multiple opportunities to deny it and pointedly did not take them. So my assumption would be that he is the most likely candidate. I suppose if he did go for it, the Assembly seat might go back to Paul Rankin if there's nobody else interested. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 10, 2024 9:18:14 GMT
A TUV/DUP link up was rebuffed, apparently  |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 10, 2024 9:32:17 GMT
I'd have to question whether any offer of an electoral deal from Jim Allister was really made in good faith.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 10, 2024 9:36:39 GMT
Presumably one of Allister's conditions was that he got the nod in North Antrim, which the DUP was never going to agree to.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 10, 2024 9:38:18 GMT
Presumably one of Allister's conditions was that he got the nod in North Antrim, which the DUP was never going to agree to. Could just imagine Ian Paisley Jr’s reaction to that idea |
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Post by therealriga on Apr 10, 2024 11:14:37 GMT
Likely just politicking and not a serious offer. "See, we offered those guys the chance to save the Union through a pact, but they put selfish party interest above the good of Ulster."
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Apr 10, 2024 11:53:43 GMT
Presumably one of Allister's conditions was that he got the nod in North Antrim, which the DUP was never going to agree to. Not to mention the UUP probably wants to contest South Antrim. |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Apr 20, 2024 12:43:13 GMT
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