stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 2:38:02 GMT
Belfast East
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Post by markgoodair on Apr 17, 2024 13:31:54 GMT
Jim Allistar has stated that a TUV candidate will run on an anti protocol platform in all 18 seats in Northern Ireland . This won't help the DUP in East Belfast.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 17, 2024 14:26:10 GMT
Jim Allister says a lot of things in the run-up to elections. It's possible that this time he means it, but I wouldn't rely upon any statement like that before the SoPN is published.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 17, 2024 14:54:09 GMT
Jim Allister says a lot of things in the run-up to elections. It's possible that this time he means it, but I wouldn't rely upon any statement like that before the SoPN is published. Yes I have a feeling he’ll bottle that pledge in the end and make up some sort of excuse around it. Much as he can’t stand the DUP I imagine he hates nationalist parties and Alliance even more, and there is a serious threat to unionist representation under FPTP currently. The UUP can at least claim to be in the running to win a couple of Westminster seats but the TUV can’t |
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therealriga
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Post by therealriga on Apr 20, 2024 10:26:55 GMT
Jim Allister says a lot of things in the run-up to elections. It's possible that this time he means it, but I wouldn't rely upon any statement like that before the SoPN is published. Yes I have a feeling he’ll bottle that pledge in the end and make up some sort of excuse around it. Much as he can’t stand the DUP I imagine he hates nationalist parties and Alliance even more, and there is a serious threat to unionist representation under FPTP currently. The UUP can at least claim to be in the running to win a couple of Westminster seats but the TUV can’t It depends. A weaker DUP, with fewer MPs, is good for the TUV. |
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Post by irish observer on Apr 21, 2024 16:43:42 GMT
Expect Long to make a real push to defeat Gavin Robinson here in East Belfast. This will be the main focus of the NI seats as 2 Party Leaders go head to head in a grudge match based on comments made by Robinson from the podium in her direction after he defeated her after her first term in defeating Peter Robinson.
This seat was personally won by Peter Robinson who built up an organisation from Castlereagh, the working-class East Belfast loyalist areas and then eventually the middle class Unionist vote that wouldn't go Alliance. A coalition that Long defeated ending his political career. If this seat falls Unionism has no Westminster seat for the first time ever and 4 seats were saved, rather than reduce to 3, to prevent this from happening. The consequences if this occurs for political Unionism will be utterly dramatic.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 22, 2024 14:13:06 GMT
Yes I have a feeling he’ll bottle that pledge in the end and make up some sort of excuse around it. Much as he can’t stand the DUP I imagine he hates nationalist parties and Alliance even more, and there is a serious threat to unionist representation under FPTP currently. The UUP can at least claim to be in the running to win a couple of Westminster seats but the TUV can’t It depends. A weaker DUP, with fewer MPs, is good for the TUV. A weaker DUP is good for the TUV, but it's better for the TUV if they don't get blamed for it. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 22, 2024 14:19:58 GMT
It depends. A weaker DUP, with fewer MPs, is good for the TUV. A weaker DUP is good for the TUV, but it's better for the TUV if they don't get blamed for it. Yes, unionism being reduced to four Westminster seats (which I’d say is possible as Alliance are in a strong a second place in Lagan Valley, East Antrim and Strangford as well as the obvious target here) would really cause recriminations |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 22, 2024 14:22:30 GMT
I'm sceptical East Antrim or Strangford are really under threat, and if the DUP are haemhorraging enough votes to make that the case then some of the remaining four seats won't look safe either.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 22, 2024 14:33:41 GMT
I'm sceptical East Antrim or Strangford are really under threat, and if the DUP are haemhorraging enough votes to make that the case then some of the remaining four seats won't look safe either. Well Alliance seem to have been confident about Lagan Valley for a while even before Donaldson’s departure from the scene; the other two have majorities that were cut to similar levels in 2019 and also saw them gain second MLAs in 2022 as was the case in LV. There might be other factors that I’m unaware of but those are clear parallels I agree the DUP should still be favourites in them all but the TUV running and campaigning hard on an anti-protocol message could cause just about enough of a split vote |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 22, 2024 14:41:34 GMT
The second seat in Strangford was a bit of a fluke and there's much less of a non-unionist vote to tap into and build up turnout among there. East Antrim is perhaps a bit less of a reach, but Alliance's resources aren't limitless and Sammy Wilson is much less likely to ship votes to the TUV than AN Other DUP candidate.
I'm also sceptical that Lagan Valley would be seriously in play this time if not for Donaldson, though I may be wrong on that.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 22, 2024 14:50:58 GMT
The second seat in Strangford was a bit of a fluke and there's much less of a non-unionist vote to tap into and build up turnout among there. East Antrim is perhaps a bit less of a reach, but Alliance's resources aren't limitless and Sammy Wilson is much less likely to ship votes to the TUV than AN Other DUP candidate. I'm also sceptical that Lagan Valley would be seriously in play this time if not for Donaldson, though I may be wrong on that. I’m actually wondering about this seat as well although it seems like an obvious gain for them in many ways. Naomi Long has already built up such a strong base in this seat over over about twenty years that there’s probably been less room for Alliance to grow recently compared to other constituencies Gavin Robinson has clearly created a moderate/pragmatic image as well which should reduce the possibility of losing more voters to Alliance or even the UUP, but the TUV could certainly cause a problem as there will still be hardline unionists in East Belfast as well |
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right
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Post by right on Apr 22, 2024 14:57:13 GMT
The second seat in Strangford was a bit of a fluke and there's much less of a non-unionist vote to tap into and build up turnout among there. East Antrim is perhaps a bit less of a reach, but Alliance's resources aren't limitless and Sammy Wilson is much less likely to ship votes to the TUV than AN Other DUP candidate. I'm also sceptical that Lagan Valley would be seriously in play this time if not for Donaldson, though I may be wrong on that. I’m actually wondering about this seat as well although it seems like an obvious gain for them in many ways. Naomi Long has already built up such a strong base in this seat over over about twenty years that there’s probably been less room for Alliance to grow recently compared to other constituencies Gavin Robinson has clearly created a moderate/pragmatic image as well which should reduce the possibility of losing more voters to Alliance or even the UUP, but the TUV could certainly cause a problem as there will still be hardline unionists in East Belfast as well What, East Belfast? |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 22, 2024 14:58:37 GMT
I’m actually wondering about this seat as well although it seems like an obvious gain for them in many ways. Naomi Long has already built up such a strong base in this seat over over about twenty years that there’s probably been less room for Alliance to grow recently compared to other constituencies Gavin Robinson has clearly created a moderate/pragmatic image as well which should reduce the possibility of losing more voters to Alliance or even the UUP, but the TUV could certainly cause a problem as there will still be hardline unionists in East Belfast as well What, East Belfast? You know what I mean  |
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YL
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Post by YL on Apr 22, 2024 18:03:04 GMT
The second seat in Strangford was a bit of a fluke and there's much less of a non-unionist vote to tap into and build up turnout among there. East Antrim is perhaps a bit less of a reach, but Alliance's resources aren't limitless and Sammy Wilson is much less likely to ship votes to the TUV than AN Other DUP candidate. I'm also sceptical that Lagan Valley would be seriously in play this time if not for Donaldson, though I may be wrong on that. The boundary changes to Strangford do bring in more of a non-Unionist vote (from South Down, including in Strangford village) which might be squeezable but I think it's still a long shot for Alliance and I'd have thought they would be concentrating on holding North Down and trying to win this seat and, given the Donaldson situation, Lagan Valley. Have they selected candidates anywhere other than those three? |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Apr 22, 2024 18:18:42 GMT
The second seat in Strangford was a bit of a fluke and there's much less of a non-unionist vote to tap into and build up turnout among there. East Antrim is perhaps a bit less of a reach, but Alliance's resources aren't limitless and Sammy Wilson is much less likely to ship votes to the TUV than AN Other DUP candidate. I'm also sceptical that Lagan Valley would be seriously in play this time if not for Donaldson, though I may be wrong on that. The boundary changes to Strangford do bring in more of a non-Unionist vote (from South Down, including in Strangford village) which might be squeezable but I think it's still a long shot for Alliance and I'd have thought they would be concentrating on holding North Down and trying to win this seat and, given the Donaldson situation, Lagan Valley. Have they selected candidates anywhere other than those three? The boundary changes are quite significant– the Catholic population of Strangford increases from 15% to 21%, which is probably enough to imply a safe nationalist assembly seat (competitive SDLP vs Sinn Fein). So definitely more promising for Alliance now. But East Belfast/Lagan Valley/holding North Down are indeed higher priorities for them– in theory South Belfast should be winnable too if they made an effort there, but again there's no point given the higher priority seats. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Apr 22, 2024 19:02:22 GMT
Regarding the effect of the boundary changes on this seat, Nicholas Whyte's notional calculations (which are used as the official ones in NI) have a small increase in the notional DUP majority, but putting it that way is a bit misleading: the DUP vote share falls, and some SDLP votes come in from Belfast South. Even if the SDLP bother standing here (they didn't in 2019) I suspect a lot of that SDLP vote will go to Alliance given the dynamics in this constituency; that wouldn't be quite enough to win on its own, but assuming the calculations are correct (and given the areas involved they look plausible) the real effect of the boundary changes is probably to make it a little easier for Alliance to win.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on May 26, 2024 12:37:14 GMT
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Post by Cú Chulainn on May 27, 2024 6:31:47 GMT
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Post by boondock on May 27, 2024 8:15:40 GMT
Not good news for the DUP leader. He could be in trouble now. Any other Alliance candidate than Long wouldn't have a chance but I reckon she is favourite to take the seat |
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