stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 1, 2024 20:55:45 GMT
I am going against the majority here - Gavin Robinson is well-liked, not seen as too sectarian, and has a decent campaign team, so I am voting for a DUP hold. I think he has a better chance than most people seem to think but the impact of the TUV candidate is the big question |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 1, 2024 21:09:20 GMT
I am going against the majority here - Gavin Robinson is well-liked, not seen as too sectarian, and has a decent campaign team, so I am voting for a DUP hold. I think he has a better chance then most people seem to think but the impact of the TUV candidate is the big question. I agree. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 1, 2024 21:29:49 GMT
I think he has a better chance then most people seem to think but the impact of the TUV candidate is the big question. I agree. There might be an assumption based on the general Alliance surge going about but I think Naomi Long can’t be far off having got their vote as high as it can be in this constituency over the years already, and Robinson seems moderate enough to avoid alienating moderate unionist who haven’t already switched. So the key will be if there’s enough of a fracture on the more hardline side and the TUV split the vote enough |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 2, 2024 9:02:10 GMT
The constituency hasn't had a TUV candidate since 2010 and I struggle to imagine that those votes have ended up anywhere but the DUP column in recent elections, so it'll definitely hurt Robinson even if the leakage is minimised.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jul 2, 2024 21:46:47 GMT
There might be an assumption based on the general Alliance surge going about but I think Naomi Long can’t be far off having got their vote as high as it can be in this constituency over the years already, and Robinson seems moderate enough to avoid alienating moderate unionist who haven’t already switched. So the key will be if there’s enough of a fracture on the more hardline side and the TUV split the vote enough Don't forget there's an Ulster Unionist candidate standing: electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20138/ |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 2, 2024 22:04:08 GMT
There might be an assumption based on the general Alliance surge going about but I think Naomi Long can’t be far off having got their vote as high as it can be in this constituency over the years already, and Robinson seems moderate enough to avoid alienating moderate unionist who haven’t already switched. So the key will be if there’s enough of a fracture on the more hardline side and the TUV split the vote enough Don't forget there's an Ulster Unionist candidate standing: electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20138/Yes true but they have also done in the past two elections and didn't damage Robinson too much |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 5, 2024 2:59:42 GMT
Indications that Gavin Robinson has retained his seat.
Gareth Gordon reporting a estimate of a 2.3k majority.
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Post by rcronald on Jul 5, 2024 3:05:16 GMT
Indications that Gavin Robinson has retained his seat. Gareth Gordon reporting a estimate of a 2.3k majority. wow |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 3:06:47 GMT
Indications that Gavin Robinson has retained his seat. Gareth Gordon reporting a estimate of a 2.3k majority. If this is the case, and if Easton gains North Down and the UUP F&ST, it would turn out to be a decent night for unionism even with the Lagan Valley result |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 4:32:21 GMT
Robinson holds
Great achievement considering the odds seemed to be really against him
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Post by rcronald on Jul 5, 2024 4:33:40 GMT
Robinson holds Great achievement considering the odds seemed to be really against him Belfast East + North Down shows that the Alliance may have gotten too green… |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 4:35:59 GMT
Robinson holds Great achievement considering the odds seemed to be really against him Belfast East + North Down shows that the Alliance may have gotten too green… Lagan Valley may contradict that but maybe the Donaldson factor can be blamed there |
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Post by therealriga on Jul 5, 2024 4:36:22 GMT
Alliance gained Lagan Valley and came close in East Antrim, but easily lose their existing seat in North Down, miss their main target in Belfast East and are also nowhere near in a more distant target in Strangford. Hard for them to spin this election as anything more than a disappointment after good assembly results.
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Post by rcronald on Jul 5, 2024 4:37:49 GMT
Belfast East + North Down shows that the Alliance may have gotten too green… Lagan Valley may contradict that but maybe the Donaldson factor can be blamed there Do we really think that Alliance would have won if Givan was the DUP candidate? |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 4:39:45 GMT
Lagan Valley may contradict that but maybe the Donaldson factor can be blamed there Do we really think that Alliance would have won if Givan was the DUP candidate? Probably not, although Sorcha Eastwood does seem a very fresh and impressive candidate who has been working the seat for some time |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 5, 2024 4:41:26 GMT
Do we really think that Alliance would have won if Givan was the DUP candidate? Probably not, although Sorcha Eastwood does seem a very fresh and impressive candidate who has been working the seat for some time Personally, I’d take her over Farry every day of the week… |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 5, 2024 14:27:04 GMT
Alliance gained Lagan Valley and came close in East Antrim, Their vote share was slightly down in East Antrim but came close due to a near catastrophic split in the unionist vote. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 14:31:12 GMT
When it comes to FPTP it does seem like unionists now dont have many places left where they can really afford to be competing with each other without risking someone else coming through the middle, certainly not three different parties anyway
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Post by irish observer on Jul 6, 2024 15:34:40 GMT
Robinson holds Great achievement considering the odds seemed to be really against him I have to agree. I think Naomi Long should reflect and focus her career in Stormont as a capable Minister of a growing party and ensure that Alliance don't fracture their coalition. Give Eastwood her head as Westminster Leader and in time future successor if she retains her seat at next Westminster election because DUP will target that big-time after the Donaldson morass passes finally from memory. Robinson now has this seat safe for as long as he wants it and I think Peter Robinson made a critical intervention here during the campaign in his old seat in particular through The BelTel. |
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