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Post by boondock on May 27, 2024 8:30:05 GMT
Can't see Jim Alister going near East Belfast. He will be accused of splitting the unionist vote, losing a unionist seat etc. He has already stood aside in North Down, will almost certainly stand aside in FST and will probably not run in a number of other constituencies. Is earlier numerous claims that TUV will stand in all 18 seats already looks ridiculous
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YL
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Post by YL on May 27, 2024 11:12:29 GMT
Can't see Jim Alister going near East Belfast. He will be accused of splitting the unionist vote, losing a unionist seat etc. He has already stood aside in North Down, will almost certainly stand aside in FST and will probably not run in a number of other constituencies. Is earlier numerous claims that TUV will stand in all 18 seats already looks ridiculous I'd have thought that this was one of the weaker DUP-held seats for the TUV. |
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Post by markgoodair on May 27, 2024 12:24:43 GMT
Seamas de Faoite is the SDLP candidate.
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YL
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Post by YL on May 28, 2024 6:03:46 GMT
Seamas de Faoite is the SDLP candidate. He won’t get many votes, but they didn’t stand in 2019 (the small notional vote is in the area transferred from South) and standing this time is mildly unhelpful to Long. |
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Post by markgoodair on May 30, 2024 16:12:53 GMT
Sinn Fein has confirmed that they won’t be running a candidate here .
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Post by markgoodair on May 31, 2024 16:46:09 GMT
Can't see Jim Alister going near East Belfast. He will be accused of splitting the unionist vote, losing a unionist seat etc. He has already stood aside in North Down, will almost certainly stand aside in FST and will probably not run in a number of other constituencies. Is earlier numerous claims that TUV will stand in all 18 seats already looks ridiculous John Ross is the TUV candidate. |
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on May 31, 2024 17:18:30 GMT
Seamas de Faoite is the SDLP candidate. He won’t get many votes, but they didn’t stand in 2019 (the small notional vote is in the area transferred from South) and standing this time is mildly unhelpful to Long. On paper there is potential for about 4000 Nat votes as shown by the locals but yes I would expect majority of them to vote alliance. |
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Post by greenhert on May 31, 2024 20:12:16 GMT
Seamas de Faoite is the SDLP candidate. He won’t get many votes, but they didn’t stand in 2019 (the small notional vote is in the area transferred from South) and standing this time is mildly unhelpful to Long. Given recent SDLP performances in Belfast East and tactical voting being strongly at play here he will be lucky to get 1000 votes, let alone save his deposit. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 7, 2024 22:08:15 GMT
Séamas de Faoite (SDLP)
Naomi Long (Alliance)
Ryan North (Ind)
Gavin Robinson (DUP)
John Ross (TUV)
Brian Smyth (Green)
Ryan Warren (UUP)
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Post by irish observer on Jun 18, 2024 23:43:12 GMT
Really surprised why SDLP are running here at all though it seems they are contesting all 18 while SF only running selectively. Its Long v Robinson Battle 3. So far its 1:1 basically albeit 2 different Robinsons. Going on Naomi again here.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 19, 2024 7:20:22 GMT
Really surprised why SDLP are running here at all though it seems they are contesting all 18 while SF only running selectively. Its Long v Robinson Battle 3. So far its 1:1 basically albeit 2 different Robinsons. Going on Naomi again here. That has generally been SDLP policy, with them calling 2019 where they didn’t stand in a few places an exception in an attempt to stop Brexit Might be be misunderstanding your meaning there but Naomi Long has stood here in every election for Alliance since 2005, only victory in 2010 so it was one each against Peter Robinson but Gavin has defeated her three times (2015, 17 and 19) He’s got the bigger profile as leader and is on the moderate wing of the party which allows appeal to Alliance type voters or voters tempted by them so I think Robinson still has a chance of holding on. However the TUV standing to allow a protest vote for more hardline unionists does present difficulty considering the fine margins it’ll likely come down to, so if Naomi’s vote holds up from last time and tactical voting is still high then she could probably be considered the favourite |
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right
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Post by right on Jun 25, 2024 8:19:54 GMT
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Post by irish observer on Jun 26, 2024 17:28:47 GMT
Really surprised why SDLP are running here at all though it seems they are contesting all 18 while SF only running selectively. Its Long v Robinson Battle 3. So far its 1:1 basically albeit 2 different Robinsons. Going on Naomi again here. That has generally been SDLP policy, with them calling 2019 where they didn’t stand in a few places an exception in an attempt to stop Brexit Might be be misunderstanding your meaning there but Naomi Long has stood here in every election for Alliance since 2005, only victory in 2010 so it was one each against Peter Robinson but Gavin has defeated her three times (2015, 17 and 19) He’s got the bigger profile as leader and is on the moderate wing of the party which allows appeal to Alliance type voters or voters tempted by them so I think Robinson still has a chance of holding on. However the TUV standing to allow a protest vote for more hardline unionists does present difficulty considering the fine margins it’ll likely come down to, so if Naomi’s vote holds up from last time and tactical voting is still high then she could probably be considered the favourite I did muddle the analysis somewhat here. You're right Gavin has defeated Naomi 3 times but we're at a different DUP time now and Alliance coalition is quite resolute with a very strong constituency operation. Always their first target seat, going back to Napier and his successor, Alderdice. That crucial mix of middle class and working class Unionist territory that Alliance could bridge plus also a Nationalist community to actually try and represent. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 26, 2024 18:11:52 GMT
That has generally been SDLP policy, with them calling 2019 where they didn’t stand in a few places an exception in an attempt to stop Brexit Might be be misunderstanding your meaning there but Naomi Long has stood here in every election for Alliance since 2005, only victory in 2010 so it was one each against Peter Robinson but Gavin has defeated her three times (2015, 17 and 19) He’s got the bigger profile as leader and is on the moderate wing of the party which allows appeal to Alliance type voters or voters tempted by them so I think Robinson still has a chance of holding on. However the TUV standing to allow a protest vote for more hardline unionists does present difficulty considering the fine margins it’ll likely come down to, so if Naomi’s vote holds up from last time and tactical voting is still high then she could probably be considered the favourite I did muddle the analysis somewhat here. You're right Gavin has defeated Naomi 3 times but we're at a different DUP time now and Alliance coalition is quite resolute with a very strong constituency operation. Always their first target seat, going back to Napier and his successor, Alderdice. That crucial mix of middle class and working class Unionist territory that Alliance could bridge plus also a Nationalist community to actually try and represent. The only other factor also possibly favouring the DUP would be unionist reluctance for all four Belfast seats to be out of unionist hands (unless they won back Belfast North at the same time but I’m gathering that doesn’t seem likely). For the capital of Northern Ireland that would certainly be significant symbolically if nothing else |
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Post by irish observer on Jun 27, 2024 22:29:04 GMT
That is the crucial point of this election in NI. Does all of Belfast return 0 Unionist MPs? Compare and contrast that with the results of the 1918 Westminster Election. In all seats in what became NI, SF ran as Abstentionist candidates in all bar 6 Constituencies, including NE Donegal where there was a voting pact with the Home-Rule Party to not split the combined Nationalist vote. The pact broke down, however, in East Down, allowing a Unionist through the middle, essentially where Downpatrick, Ballynahinch etc is found today. This pact was negotiated with the assistance of Cardinal Logue the Catholic Primate of All-Ireland, whose seat was in Armagh. Didn't help the Rome Rule case though did it!
We've since had combined Unionist Pacts and Nationalist Pacts in Ulster but there have always been voting pacts here for Westminster level.
AFAIR 3 Labour Unionists were elected in Belfast in 1918, all of whom then took the UUP whip.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 27, 2024 22:46:09 GMT
I have not commented on the NI seats so far, still recovering from the Irish local and European elections.
I am surprised that Naomi Long is standing here as, ironically, while her standing is the best chance for her party, it will also take her away from a real position of power and make her a rather insignificant bankbencher in what could well be a very heavily Labour HoC. Politicians love to make a difference. what difference can she make in the HoC? If elected, especially with APNI colleagues, I expect a closer relationship with the Lib Dems and the chance of influential select committee posts, not just for NI.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 30, 2024 8:37:54 GMT
That is the crucial point of this election in NI. Does all of Belfast return 0 Unionist MPs? Compare and contrast that with the results of the 1918 Westminster Election. In all seats in what became NI, SF ran as Abstentionist candidates in all bar 6 Constituencies, including NE Donegal where there was a voting pact with the Home-Rule Party to not split the combined Nationalist vote. The pact broke down, however, in East Down, allowing a Unionist through the middle, essentially where Downpatrick, Ballynahinch etc is found today. This pact was negotiated with the assistance of Cardinal Logue the Catholic Primate of All-Ireland, whose seat was in Armagh. Didn't help the Rome Rule case though did it! We've since had combined Unionist Pacts and Nationalist Pacts in Ulster but there have always been voting pacts here for Westminster level. AFAIR 3 Labour Unionists were elected in Belfast in 1918, all of whom then took the UUP whip. My understanding is that the "Labour Unionists" were essentially a designation of convenience - the Ulster Unionist Labour Association to which they belonged set out a policy of hostility to socialism and are best thought of as the sectarian equivalent of a company union. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 30, 2024 11:22:27 GMT
That is the crucial point of this election in NI. Does all of Belfast return 0 Unionist MPs? Compare and contrast that with the results of the 1918 Westminster Election. In all seats in what became NI, SF ran as Abstentionist candidates in all bar 6 Constituencies, including NE Donegal where there was a voting pact with the Home-Rule Party to not split the combined Nationalist vote. The pact broke down, however, in East Down, allowing a Unionist through the middle, essentially where Downpatrick, Ballynahinch etc is found today. This pact was negotiated with the assistance of Cardinal Logue the Catholic Primate of All-Ireland, whose seat was in Armagh. Didn't help the Rome Rule case though did it! We've since had combined Unionist Pacts and Nationalist Pacts in Ulster but there have always been voting pacts here for Westminster level. AFAIR 3 Labour Unionists were elected in Belfast in 1918, all of whom then took the UUP whip. My understanding is that the "Labour Unionists" were essentially a designation of convenience - the Ulster Unionist Labour Association to which they belonged set out a policy of hostility to socialism and are best thought of as the sectarian equivalent of a company union. The UULA were not representative of left-wing unionists. The late Harold McCusker was a Labour man, the McGimpsey brothers were/are strongly opposed to a union with the Conservatives, Sylvia Hermon quit the party over it and was often supportive of Labour. Steve Aitkin has suggested he lend a vote to LAbour if it organised in the North. |
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therealriga
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Post by therealriga on Jul 1, 2024 20:11:48 GMT
That is the crucial point of this election in NI. Does all of Belfast return 0 Unionist MPs? Compare and contrast that with the results of the 1918 Westminster Election. In all seats in what became NI, SF ran as Abstentionist candidates in all bar 6 Constituencies, including NE Donegal where there was a voting pact with the Home-Rule Party to not split the combined Nationalist vote. The pact broke down, however, in East Down, allowing a Unionist through the middle, essentially where Downpatrick, Ballynahinch etc is found today. This pact was negotiated with the assistance of Cardinal Logue the Catholic Primate of All-Ireland, whose seat was in Armagh. Didn't help the Rome Rule case though did it! We've since had combined Unionist Pacts and Nationalist Pacts in Ulster but there have always been voting pacts here for Westminster level. AFAIR 3 Labour Unionists were elected in Belfast in 1918, all of whom then took the UUP whip. There's a real chance that the DUP will go from the 10 seats they held at the 2017 election to just 4 MPs after this GE, with Belfast East, Lagan Valley and Strangford under threat to Alliance and South Antrim to the UUP. Part of the reason for that is that they championed Brexit and most of their voters backed it, but had no clear vision of where to go next nor which type of Brexit they wanted. That, together with the local culture war issues which were long their bread and butter losing their importance to cost of living concerns means the DUP are failing hopelessly. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 1, 2024 20:52:13 GMT
I am going against the majority here - Gavin Robinson is well-liked, not seen as too sectarian, and has a decent campaign team, so I am voting for a DUP hold.
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