stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 2:19:07 GMT
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
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Post by mrsir on May 26, 2024 8:52:49 GMT
Interesting seat. Not much left for the Lib Dems now in Wales.
Potential 3-way marginal?
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Post by greenhert on May 26, 2024 8:53:59 GMT
Interesting seat. Not much left for the Lib Dems now in Wales. Potential 3-way marginal? Yes, although tactical voting will be strongly at play. Powys' constituencies should have been given protected status in the 2023 review.... |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053
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Post by jamie on May 26, 2024 9:08:02 GMT
Interesting seat. Not much left for the Lib Dems now in Wales. Potential 3-way marginal? Yes, although tactical voting will be strongly at play. Powys' constituencies should have been given protected status in the 2023 review.... Why? There’s plenty of rural constituencies across the country that were not protected and nobody serious is complaining. Why should they be overrepresented compared to others? |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
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Post by johng on May 26, 2024 9:26:23 GMT
Interesting seat. Not much left for the Lib Dems now in Wales. Potential 3-way marginal? Yes, although tactical voting will be strongly at play. Powys' constituencies should have been given protected status in the 2023 review....
Definitely not.
There was and is no reason for any part of Wales to have protected status.
What justification could you give given there are many geographically large constituencies that don't have the status?
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Post by greenhert on May 26, 2024 13:57:08 GMT
Yes, although tactical voting will be strongly at play. Powys' constituencies should have been given protected status in the 2023 review.... Why? There’s plenty of rural constituencies across the country that were not protected and nobody serious is complaining. Why should they be overrepresented compared to others? The main problem is that both Brecon & Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire have no usable connections to anywhere else in Wales apart from to Ceredigion. As has been noted before, there are no suitable links between Montgomeryshire and anywhere in the former county of Clwyd. |
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Post by johnloony on May 26, 2024 14:50:44 GMT
Interesting seat. Not much left for the Lib Dems now in Wales. Potential 3-way marginal? Yes, although tactical voting will be strongly at play. Powys' constituencies should have been given protected status in the 2023 review.... Brecon & Radnor was a 3-way marginal in 1985, even without the Cwm Tawe bit. A lot of tactical voting has gradually built up since then, squeezing the Labour vote down. The new boundaries, combined with the prevailing political climate now, means that that tactical vote might all unwind in one go, and Labour might surge up again. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on May 26, 2024 15:48:41 GMT
The main problem is that both Brecon & Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire have no usable connections to anywhere else in Wales apart from to Ceredigion. As has been noted before, there are no suitable links between Montgomeryshire and anywhere in the former county of Clwyd. This is not entirely correct. The west of Montgomery is well connected to the south of Merioneth (Machynlleth feels more like Dolgellau than the other towns of note in Montgomery for a reason) and different parts of Brecon have links to various bits of Glamorgan, Carmathenshire and Monmouthshire. |
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steve
Non-Aligned
Posts: 547
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Post by steve on May 26, 2024 16:26:25 GMT
Yes, although tactical voting will be strongly at play. Powys' constituencies should have been given protected status in the 2023 review.... Brecon & Radnor was a 3-way marginal in 1985, even without the Cwm Tawe bit. A lot of tactical voting has gradually built up since then, squeezing the Labour vote down. The new boundaries, combined with the prevailing political climate now, means that that tactical vote might all unwind in one go, and Labour might surge up again. It has had a history of being a three way marginal. In 1929 the votes split 14,511, 14,324, 14,182 between the parties. |
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Post by carolus on Jun 7, 2024 16:22:24 GMT
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Post by Penddu on Jun 28, 2024 8:59:08 GMT
With one week to go there does not seem to be a clear challenger - Lab & Lib Dem both going for the seat which could let Con hang on..
Seems to be an obvious solution - Lab to step aside if favour of Lib Dems here - and vice versa in Montgomeryshire Glyndŵr...
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 28, 2024 9:01:28 GMT
I wouldn’t trust Labour as far as I could throw them to agree to a deal like that even if there was an obvious benefit to each.
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on Jun 28, 2024 9:12:48 GMT
Even if Labour weren't trying I think the Lib Dems being the natural tactical vote is on history and the figures alone - which are the most immediately important things and I would vote Lib Dem here as a tactical voter. But I also would guess it's far easier to persuade non-Lib Dem voters in Powys looking for change to vote Labour, than it is for Lib Dems to get voters in Gwaun Cae-Gurwen or even Pontardawe and Ystalyfera to break lifetime habits.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
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Post by graham on Jun 28, 2024 10:31:02 GMT
Even if Labour weren't trying I think the Lib Dems being the natural tactical vote is on history and the figures alone - which are the most immediately important things and I would vote Lib Dem here as a tactical voter. But I also would guess it's far easier to persuade non-Lib Dem voters in Powys looking for change to vote Labour, than it is for Lib Dems to get voters in Gwaun Cae-Gurwen or even Pontardawe and Ystalyfera to break lifetime habits. The longer term history of the former Brecon & Radnor seat needs to be considered when tactical voting is being contemplated. Labour did hold the seat 1939 - 1979 when it fell to the Tories. Boundary changes prior to the 1983 election were unfavourable to Labour - though the party narrowly held on to second place that year. At the July 1985 by election Labour failed by 500 votes to win back the seat - losing narrowly to the Liberal - Richard Livesey who managed to win again in 1987.It was very much a three-way contest at the 1987 and 1992 elections, but at the latter election the Tories - in quite a shock result - won the seat back by a tiny margin. That made it possible for the LDs to blame Labour for the Tories having won the seat and made it easier thereafter to squueze the Labour vote on a tactical basis.That probably prevented Labour from winning in 1997 when the LDs took the seat back. Since the 1990s the seat saw tactical voting by Labour voters on a great scale , but the underlying core Labour vote remained much higher than implied by the headline figures. However, the new seat of Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe transfers strong Labour areas from the Neath constituency - and had the new boundaries been in operation Labour would certainly have won the 1985 by election and every GE from 1987 - 2010 when it might have been won by the Tories. If labour can now get the tactical vote to unwind by persuading Labour voters to support their first preference - as they did until the late 1990s - Labour should be a clear favourite to take the new seat. Recent election results do flatter the LDs and labour is better placed than headline figures might suggest.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
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Post by johng on Jun 28, 2024 15:00:01 GMT
With one week to go there does not seem to be a clear challenger - Lab & Lib Dem both going for the seat which could let Con hang on.. Seems to be an obvious solution - Lab to step aside if favour of Lib Dems here - and vice versa in Montgomeryshire Glyndŵr...
I am actually quite surprised by the strength and effort of the Labour campaign. I didn't expect us to go this hard.
You're right that a split vote means it's certainly possible for the Tories to sneak through.
But a Powys pact is not something I think most would agree with. Both seats are potentially winnable for Labour which compels us to fight.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 28, 2024 15:06:30 GMT
With one week to go there does not seem to be a clear challenger - Lab & Lib Dem both going for the seat which could let Con hang on.. Seems to be an obvious solution - Lab to step aside if favour of Lib Dems here - and vice versa in Montgomeryshire Glyndŵr... If this was still the old B&R seat, I think Labour might just have done that. But the boundary changes mean they feel obliged to put in a real effort. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 28, 2024 15:23:59 GMT
Why? There’s plenty of rural constituencies across the country that were not protected and nobody serious is complaining. Why should they be overrepresented compared to others? The main problem is that both Brecon & Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire have no usable connections to anywhere else in Wales apart from to Ceredigion. As has been noted before, there are no suitable links between Montgomeryshire and anywhere in the former county of Clwyd. Brecon has perfectly good links down the Usk valley with Abergavenny. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
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Post by graham on Jun 28, 2024 15:29:40 GMT
With one week to go there does not seem to be a clear challenger - Lab & Lib Dem both going for the seat which could let Con hang on.. Seems to be an obvious solution - Lab to step aside if favour of Lib Dems here - and vice versa in Montgomeryshire Glyndŵr... If this was still the old B&R seat, I think Labour might just have done that. But the boundary changes mean they feel obliged to put in a real effort. But Labour polled well in the old B&R seat in 1985- 1987 - 1992 and 1997. Had the new boundaries then existed, Labour would have won all those elctions and continued to win until at least 2010. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 28, 2024 16:01:17 GMT
With one week to go there does not seem to be a clear challenger - Lab & Lib Dem both going for the seat which could let Con hang on.. Seems to be an obvious solution - Lab to step aside if favour of Lib Dems here - and vice versa in Montgomeryshire Glyndŵr... I am actually quite surprised by the strength and effort of the Labour campaign. I didn't expect us to go this hard.
You're right that a split vote means it's certainly possible for the Tories to sneak through.
But a Powys pact is not something I think most would agree with. Both seats are potentially winnable for Labour which compels us to fight.
If the (1985) by-election had not taken place, then Brecon & Radnor would have stayed as a Con/Lab marginal, and Labour would have won it in 1997. With the addition of Cwm Tawe, it should be a key target for Labour, or at least a 3-way marginal. |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589
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Post by cibwr on Jun 29, 2024 7:37:43 GMT
The main problem is that both Brecon & Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire have no usable connections to anywhere else in Wales apart from to Ceredigion. As has been noted before, there are no suitable links between Montgomeryshire and anywhere in the former county of Clwyd. Brecon has perfectly good links down the Usk valley with Abergavenny. Hence the proposal at one point for a Brecon and Abergavenny seat. |
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