Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jul 8, 2024 3:26:38 GMT
There is no constituency in Wales where a plurality of voters actually believe in what the LDs are offering. The continued representation of the Welsh Lib Dems at Westminster is entirely down to that by-election in the 1980s and the continued habit of tactical voting.
The same was not true in the Senedd until 2021. In 2026 it seems likely that two of the three rural constituencies with a decent orange base will be combined, which will virtually guarantee representation under the new system. But if those three constituencies are paired with unfavourable areas rather than each other then it could be curtains for Dodds.
In my constituency the candidate kept putting stuff from the manifesto which only applies to policy in England on social media, and as a pro-devolution (and even pro-federalism) party you'd think they'd be keen on making the division of powers clearer.
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ian48
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Post by ian48 on Jul 8, 2024 9:05:40 GMT
It will be interesting to see what happens with the constituency pairings for the Senedd. The starting point will likely have to be Ynys Mon given its special status and the fact it's an island. The obvious link would be to Bangor Aberconwy given the bridge link, but I actually think this might prove difficult. It will mean Dwyfor Meirionydd having to pair with Montgomery and Glyndwr, which will mean one constituency effectively stretching from the tip of the Llyn peninsular to the outer suburbs of Wrexham and down to Newtown. This would be unwieldy geographically and they are very culturally different areas.
Whereas if Dwyfor Meirionydd paired with Ynys Mon it would reunite most of the pre-95 county of Gwynedd and would create a Welsh language heartland seat. The two constituencies share a border in the Menai Strait and the Britannia Bridge itself is only a couple of miles outside the border of D-M. This would then mean that Bangor Aberconwy would pair with Clwyd North, Clwyd East with Alyn and Deeside (these two sets of pairings would be very sensible), and Wrexham with Montgomery Glyndwr. Brecon would maybe then pair with Monmouthshire I imagine in such a scenario, especially given the fairly decent inks down the Usk valley to Abergavenny.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 8, 2024 9:38:08 GMT
...It will mean Dwyfor Meirionydd having to pair with Montgomery and Glyndwr, which will mean one constituency effectively stretching from the tip of the Llyn peninsular to the outer suburbs of Wrexham and down to Newtown. This would be unwieldy geographically and they are very culturally different areas. But still smaller than the current Mid and West regional seat, so certainly not to be dismissed. |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Jul 8, 2024 9:39:19 GMT
I understand what you are saying - b tut the road and train links I think make the pairing with Bangor Aberconwy more likely.. but your paring work as well - especially if the Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe pair with Monmouthshire.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jul 18, 2024 0:07:17 GMT
Brecon would maybe then pair with Monmouthshire I imagine in such a scenario, especially given the fairly decent inks down the Usk valley to Abergavenny. The new constituency boundaries are very awkward for pairing. Pair Brecon with Monmouthshire and you've got a seat stretching from the outskirts of Swansea to the outskirts of Newport via Brecon. Pair Brecon with Montgomeryshire and you've got a seat stretching from the outskirts of Swansea to Wrexham. Pair Brecon with Merthyr Tydfil and, whilst compact, the two parts of the seat would have completely different feel to each other. Same problem for pairing with Neath. So by elimination I think the only option is Carmathen. |
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Post by Penddu on Jul 18, 2024 18:55:43 GMT
Montgomery has to go with either Wrexham or Meirionydd. Cannot go with Brecon.
Brecon could go with Ceredigion (but split by a mountain range - so not ideal).
Brecon with Merthyr is also split by a mountain range and the two seats are very different in nature - probably incompatible.
Brecon with Neath is possible but contrived - again very different in nature.
Brecon could really only go with Caerfyrddin or Monmouth - neither is perfect but would make the other seats pair up nicely.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 18, 2024 19:08:49 GMT
Montgomery has to go with either Wrexham or Meirionydd. Cannot go with Brecon. Brecon could go with Ceredigion (but split by a mountain range - so not ideal). Brecon with Merthyr is also split by a mountain range and the two seats are very different in nature - probably incompatible. Brecon with Neath is possible but contrived - again very different in nature. Brecon could really only go with Caerfyrddin or Monmouth - neither is perfect but would make the other seats pair up nicely. Could Ceredigion go with Caerfrddin, or are they not contiguous? Edit: I have checked - they are divided by the Dyfi, all the common boundary being downstream of the first bridge. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 18, 2024 19:12:01 GMT
Montgomery has to go with either Wrexham or Meirionydd. Cannot go with Brecon. Brecon could go with Ceredigion (but split by a mountain range - so not ideal). Brecon with Merthyr is also split by a mountain range and the two seats are very different in nature - probably incompatible. Brecon with Neath is possible but contrived - again very different in nature. Brecon could really only go with Caerfyrddin or Monmouth - neither is perfect but would make the other seats pair up nicely. Could Ceredigion go with Caerfrddin, or are they not contiguous? Edit: I have checked - they are divided by the Dyfi, all the common boundary being downstream of the first bridge. Ceredigion & Preseli can’t be combined with Caerfyrddin because that would leave Pembroke isolated. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 18, 2024 19:15:35 GMT
Brecon with Neath is possible but contrived - again very different in nature. I agree with everything you say there. I’d also say though that “B&R” already contained Ystradgynlais and now contains nine wards from Neath Port Talbot so it’s essentially already made up of two very different areas, therefore paring it with Neath [and Swansea East] will mean it’s a diverse seat but not exceptionally more than the current Westminster seat already is. But let’s face it whichever way this seat gets paired it’s not going to be pretty. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 18, 2024 19:22:17 GMT
Could Ceredigion go with Caerfrddin Dwyfor Meironydd, or are they not contiguous? Edit: I have checked - they are divided by the Dyfi, all the common boundary being downstream of the first bridge. Ceredigion & Preseli can’t be combined with Caerfyrddin because that would leave Pembroke isolated. Sorry, I meant Ceredigion and Dwyfor Meironydd. D'oh! |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 18, 2024 19:29:42 GMT
Ceredigion & Preseli can’t be combined with Caerfyrddin because that would leave Pembroke isolated. Sorry, I meant Ceredigion and Dwyfor Meironydd. D'oh! The rules are due to be published tomorrow so we’ll find out the exact definition of coterminous. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jul 18, 2024 20:30:01 GMT
Could Ceredigion go with Caerfrddin, or are they not contiguous? Edit: I have checked - they are divided by the Dyfi, all the common boundary being downstream of the first bridge. Road connectivity isn't absolutely necessary, after all Alloa and Grangemouth in Scotland doesn't have a bridge where the constituency crosses the Forth (there is one nearby but it crosses through a different constituency for a short distance). |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 18, 2024 20:40:22 GMT
Could Ceredigion go with Caerfrddin, or are they not contiguous? Edit: I have checked - they are divided by the Dyfi, all the common boundary being downstream of the first bridge. Road connectivity isn't absolutely necessary, after all Alloa and Grangemouth in Scotland doesn't have a bridge where the constituency crosses the Forth (there is one nearby but it crosses through a different constituency for a short distance). And of course each seat will have 6 members, not 1. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 18, 2024 22:06:36 GMT
Ceredigion & Preseli can’t be combined with Caerfyrddin because that would leave Pembroke isolated. Sorry, I meant Ceredigion and Dwyfor Meironydd. D'oh! When I am Dictator of the World, the constituencies to be paired will not allowed to be next to each other |
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Post by Penddu on Jul 19, 2024 4:06:02 GMT
Could Ceredigion go with Caerfrddin, or are they not contiguous? Edit: I have checked - they are divided by the Dyfi, all the common boundary being downstream of the first bridge. Ceredigion & Preseli can’t be combined with Caerfyrddin because that would leave Pembroke isolated. When joining constituencies/wards etc you really have to start at the 4 corners and work in to avoid issues like this. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jul 21, 2024 8:48:17 GMT
Why wouldn’t Brecon and Montgomery pair together in a “Make Powys great again” constituency?
Is it the Neath and Wrexham elements at the opposite ends, or does the core not fit together?
And what about Dwyfor Merionedd and Ceredigion for a “West Coast” seat is the link across the river too tenuous?
Feels that the boundary commissions main job is to pick some losers as someone’s going to end up in an awful constituency.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jul 22, 2024 1:18:14 GMT
And what about Dwyfor Meirionydd and Ceredigion for a “West Coast” seat is the link across the river too tenuous? This is being discussed in greater depth in the Boundaries sub-forum, but the objection to that pairing is that it would leave Mid & South Pembs isolated. |
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