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Post by Penddu on Jun 29, 2024 14:38:10 GMT
Brecon has perfectly good links down the Usk valley with Abergavenny. Hence the proposal at one point for a Brecon and Abergavenny seat. ... And why we could see Brecon paired with Monmouthshire in next Senedd arrangements.... |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Jun 30, 2024 6:42:40 GMT
There was also a local government boundary commission interim report in the 1960s that suggested a South East Wales county made up of Brecon, Radnor and Monmouthshire. So its not so far fetched.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jul 3, 2024 15:33:38 GMT
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jul 3, 2024 15:53:12 GMT
My sister received a simial letter from the LDs in South Cambridgeshire. Labour should counter it with a letter from 'former LD member.' This is a seat were Labour is seriously competitive , having held Brecon & Ranor 1939 - 1979. Under the new boundaries it would have been Labour- held from the July 1985 by election until at least 2010 - indeed possibly 2019. |
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on Jul 3, 2024 18:25:58 GMT
My sister received a simial letter from the LDs in South Cambridgeshire. Labour should counter it with a letter from 'former LD member.' This is a seat were Labour is seriously competitive , having held Brecon & Ranor 1939 - 1979. Under the new boundaries it would have been Labour- held from the July 1985 by election until at least 2010 - indeed possibly 2019. If you're a betting man you can gets odds of 20/1 on Labour. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 3, 2024 19:57:35 GMT
Labour should counter it with a letter from 'former LD member.' Probably a bit late for that now. This is a seat were Labour is seriously competitive , having held Brecon & Ranor 1939 - 1979. Under the new boundaries it would have been Labour- held from the July 1985 by election until at least 2010 - indeed possibly 2019. “1939-1979”Sometimes I think you must live in a time warp. 😉 |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2024 12:28:00 GMT
Labour should counter it with a letter from 'former LD member.' Probably a bit late for that now. This is a seat were Labour is seriously competitive , having held Brecon & Ranor 1939 - 1979. Under the new boundaries it would have been Labour- held from the July 1985 by election until at least 2010 - indeed possibly 2019. “1939-1979”Sometimes I think you must live in a time warp. 😉 Do you seriously dispute my point that on the new boundaries Labour would have won the 1985 by election - and all GEs until at least 2010? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 4, 2024 12:38:18 GMT
I don’t know about 1985. Whilst there was a Labour vote in the South how popular would they have been elsewhere?
I’ve no doubt on the current boundaries Labour would have won in 1997 and 2001 - not so sure about 2005 onwards. Certainly wouldn’t have won in 2019 (by-election or General).
In fact had it not been for the 1985 by-election the Conservatives would have held this seat and lost it on the old boundaries to Labour in 1997 and the Lib Dems would be unlikelyto be a feature today.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2024 12:48:51 GMT
I don’t know about 1985. Whilst there was a Labour vote in the South how popular would they have been elsewhere? I’ve no doubt on the current boundaries Labour would have won in 1997 and 2001 - not so sure about 2005 onwards. Certainly wouldn’t have won in 2019 (by-election or General). Labour only lost by 500 at the 1985 by election under the old boundaries. The areas now transferred from Neath would have ensured a Labour win by a significant margin - and that would have continued until 2010 - possibly 2019. It makes perfect sense for the party to target the seat. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 4, 2024 12:55:58 GMT
….would have continued until 2010 - possibly 2019. It makes perfect sense for the party to target the seat. I disagree on Labour’s strength and popularity from 2005 onwards, but there we are. As for Labour targeting it, they’re perfectly entitled too and I haven’t said they shouldn’t. (Obviously I wish they wouldn’t but that’s my own view that I haven’t stated until now on this thread). |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 4, 2024 16:15:05 GMT
I don’t know about 1985. Whilst there was a Labour vote in the South how popular would they have been elsewhere? I’ve no doubt on the current boundaries Labour would have won in 1997 and 2001 - not so sure about 2005 onwards. Certainly wouldn’t have won in 2019 (by-election or General). Labour only lost by 500 at the 1985 by election under the old boundaries. The areas now transferred from Neath would have ensured a Labour win by a significant margin - and that would have continued until 2010 - possibly 2019. It makes perfect sense for the party to target the seat. Simce the 1985 by-election (which was a 3-way marginal), there has been a continuous and ongoing tactical squeeze of the Labour vote in B&R going down and down and down, resulting it now being a 2-way marginal between Conservative and Lib Dem. If Labour had won the 1985 by-election, none of that tactical squeezing would have happened, and B&R would have been a Con/Lab marginal. On the new boundaries, BR&CT would be a prime target for a big Labour win. Whether Labour actually wins will depend on how much the voters of B&R are aware of remembering that history, and tactically unwinding their tactical votes accordingly. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2024 16:24:36 GMT
Labour only lost by 500 at the 1985 by election under the old boundaries. The areas now transferred from Neath would have ensured a Labour win by a significant margin - and that would have continued until 2010 - possibly 2019. It makes perfect sense for the party to target the seat. Simce the 1985 by-election (which was a 3-way marginal), there has been a continuous and ongoing tactical squeeze of the Labour vote in B&R going down and down and down, resulting it now being a 2-way marginal between Conservative and Lib Dem. If Labour had won the 1985 by-election, none of that tactical squeezing would have happened, and B&R would have been a Con/Lab marginal. On the new boundaries, BR&CT would be a prime target for a big Labour win. Whether Labour actually wins will depend on how much the voters of B&R are aware of remembering that history, and tactically unwinding their tactical votes accordingly. I agree with your comment but would add that significant tactical voting by Labour voters only really happened post-1992 following the very narrow Tory gain at that election. That made it easy for LDs to claim that the Labour votes had helped the Tories win that year, and that suggestion was probably sufficient to deny Labour the seat in 1997. Thereafter, tactical voting certainly happened on a great scale - though the new boundaries would have made it unnecessary! The key question this year is the extent to which Labour can now get that tactical vote to unwind. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jul 4, 2024 16:26:24 GMT
I wonder if in some alternate universe there is an equivalent of graham arguing for Lib Dem gains in seats on the basis that were won by the Liberal party in the 1920s.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2024 16:33:39 GMT
I wonder if in some alternate universe there is an equivalent of graham arguing for Lib Dem gains in seats on the basis that were won by the Liberal party in the 1920s. That fails to address the psephological points I have made.
I voted Green today - and have only voted Labour at 2 of the last 8 GEs - ie 2015 and 2017.
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jul 4, 2024 16:52:28 GMT
That post was not an attempt at addressing the psephoogical points you made.
But to address them now,
I do not think the 1985 by election is very relevant. Did it change the direction of the seat? Quite possibly. But a large proportion of people who voted in this seat prior to the by election are now dead, replaced by people who either see themselves as lib dem supporters or Labour supporters who vote Lib Dem locally. That only becomes more the case the further back you have to go to justify your arguments.
I can see this election, as a result of the Labour campaign and the boundary changes, returning a similar result here to the 1992 result in Brecon and Radnorshire. I think the fact that both parties are campaigning to win the seat and the combination of national picture and significant boundary changes will likely make it difficult for either side to win over habitual supporters (tactical or otherwise) of the other party on both sides.
I do not expect us to win this seat this time around, although it does just barely scrape its way onto my list of 50 most likely LD seats after the election. Whether it then goes on to follow a similar result in the next election to how it did in 1997 or instead goes off in a completely different direction is as yet unknowable.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 4, 2024 20:30:27 GMT
I don’t know about 1985. Whilst there was a Labour vote in the South how popular would they have been elsewhere? I’ve no doubt on the current boundaries Labour would have won in 1997 and 2001 - not so sure about 2005 onwards. Certainly wouldn’t have won in 2019 (by-election or General). In fact had it not been for the 1985 by-election the Conservatives would have held this seat and lost it on the old boundaries to Labour in 1997 and the Lib Dems would be unlikelyto be a feature today. Same with Eastleigh. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 5, 2024 4:12:27 GMT
LIB
DEM
F**KING
GAIN
I
SAID
GAIN!
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 5, 2024 6:47:50 GMT
LIB DEM F**KING GAIN I SAID GAIN! I read this as Foghorn Leghorn. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 5, 2024 22:25:14 GMT
This LD seat borders seats now held by Labour, Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and the Greens.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,139
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Post by cogload on Jul 7, 2024 6:44:00 GMT
www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/W07000085I think we got a tad lucky. Our vote stood still whilst Fay Jones's collapsed around her ears and we squeaked home with less than 30%. It could be argued that in the context of this year's elections this is now a 4 way fight with Reform lurking in the long grass. A needed shot in the arm for the Welsh LD's and though the Labour vote did rise by 4%, was it suppressed when the overall Welsh Labour vote fell by 4% due to Gethings' antics at Cardiff Bay? One to ponder.
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