Edinburgh South

[Tony Otim]

First piece of election mail today - addressed (to the wife) through the post from Ian Murray. Actually mentions Labour quite prominently unlike his efforts last time out. A bit like the Labour campaign, it's professional and solid, but rather bland and uninspiring, but will doubtless result in a crushing victory.

[Tony Otim]

Second piece of mail through post - from Labour, addressed to me, letter from Robin Harper, although I've got to say that the logic and reasoning behind his support for Labour/Murray continues to completely escape me.

[stb12]

Jun 20, 2024 14:44:24 GMT Tony Otim said:

Second piece of mail through post - from Labour, addressed to me, letter from Robin Harper, although I've got to say that the logic and reasoning behind his support for Labour/Murray continues to completely escape me.

Would you have expected him to go somewhere else after leaving the Greens?

[john07]

Jun 20, 2024 14:47:43 GMT stb12 said:

Jun 20, 2024 14:44:24 GMT Tony Otim said:

Second piece of mail through post - from Labour, addressed to me, letter from Robin Harper, although I've got to say that the logic and reasoning behind his support for Labour/Murray continues to completely escape me.

Would you have expected him to go somewhere else after leaving the Greens?

The obvious reason was that Harper never supported Scottish Independence.

The Scottish Greens have been cosying up to the SNP for years. They got kicked in the teeth for their trouble.

[Tony Otim]

Unionist Parties in Scotland: We won't work with you because you favour independence

Also unionist parties in Scotland: you'll only work with the SNP.

hmmmmm

[Tony Otim]

Jun 20, 2024 14:47:43 GMT stb12 said:

Jun 20, 2024 14:44:24 GMT Tony Otim said:

Second piece of mail through post - from Labour, addressed to me, letter from Robin Harper, although I've got to say that the logic and reasoning behind his support for Labour/Murray continues to completely escape me.

Would you have expected him to go somewhere else after leaving the Greens?

No, not a surprise, but slightly sad. I fear that he may end up as a useful idiot greenwashing a Labour party that continues to backtrack on it's commitments...

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 20, 2024 16:27:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

Unionist Parties in Scotland: We won't work with you because you favour independence

Also unionist parties in Scotland: you'll only work with the SNP.

hmmmmm

Scottish Green Party have made the conscious decision that they will prioritise Scottish Independence over Green policies.

If they truly wanted Green policies they'd junk Scottish independence at the first opportunity l.

[stb12]

Jun 20, 2024 16:29:21 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jun 20, 2024 14:47:43 GMT stb12 said:

Would you have expected him to go somewhere else after leaving the Greens?

No, not a surprise, but slightly sad. I fear that he may end up as a useful idiot greenwashing a Labour party that continues to backtrack on it's commitments...

Although on the other hand are you that comfortable with the Scottish Green leadership at present?

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Jun 20, 2024 16:27:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

Unionist Parties in Scotland: We won't work with you because you favour independence

Also unionist parties in Scotland: you'll only work with the SNP.

hmmmmm

I can't speak for the others, but, as a Scottish Conservative, there are other reasons why I would be aghast if we worked with you on anything other than an extraordinary basis, i.e. the Humza no confidence motion. For instance, it irks greatly that you're a west coast orientated urban middle class party bent on plunging my region into deeper poverty. From Dundee all the way to Banff, this whole region is plugged into the oil economy, and the regional economy would be devastated if it were abandoned in the way the Greens propose. Similarly, the Hamas stuff. I mean wtf? The party is deeply philosemitic and would never, ever tolerate that. This isn't to attack you personally or to be hostile, but it's just to illustrate that there are, and these are just two, issues beyond the constitution.

[Tony Otim]

Jun 20, 2024 16:57:09 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Jun 20, 2024 16:27:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

Unionist Parties in Scotland: We won't work with you because you favour independence

Also unionist parties in Scotland: you'll only work with the SNP.

hmmmmm

I can't speak for the others, but, as a Scottish Conservative, there are other reasons why I would be aghast if we worked with you on anything other than an extraordinary basis, i.e. the Humza no confidence motion. For instance, it irks greatly that you're a west coast orientated urban middle class party bent on plunging my region into deeper poverty. From Dundee all the way to Banff, this whole region is plugged into the oil economy, and the regional economy would be devastated if it were abandoned in the way the Greens propose. Similarly, the Hamas stuff. I mean wtf? The party is deeply philosemitic and would never, ever tolerate that. This isn't to attack you personally or to be hostile, but it's just to illustrate that there are, and these are just two, issues beyond the constitution.

Don’t worry- I think you’re safe. Not even the Scottish Greens are desperate enough to want to work with your party

[Tony Otim]

Jun 20, 2024 16:37:12 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Jun 20, 2024 16:27:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

Unionist Parties in Scotland: We won't work with you because you favour independence

Also unionist parties in Scotland: you'll only work with the SNP.

hmmmmm

Scottish Green Party have made the conscious decision that they will prioritise Scottish Independence over Green policies.

If they truly wanted Green policies they'd junk Scottish independence at the first opportunity l.

Yawn. Both untrue and irrelevant to the point being made…

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 20, 2024 16:27:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

Unionist Parties in Scotland: We won't work with you because you favour independence

Also unionist parties in Scotland: you'll only work with the SNP.

hmmmmm

An honest question - is independence up for debate in the Scottish Greens? Is there a Unionist current/faction?

[john07]

Jun 20, 2024 17:17:20 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jun 20, 2024 16:37:12 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Scottish Green Party have made the conscious decision that they will prioritise Scottish Independence over Green policies.

If they truly wanted Green policies they'd junk Scottish independence at the first opportunity l.

Yawn. Both untrue and irrelevant to the point being made…

Yes but it is relevant to why the former leader of the Scottish Greens is supporting Labour.

[Tony Otim]

Went to hustings tonight - that was fun. All 10 candidates (well a stand-in for Alba) so very crowded and not all the candidates got to answer all the questions, which was a shame. There was an interesting debate on VAT on school fees (which might actually be a real issue in this constituency and somewhat dent Murray's majority) then rather more heated discussions on gender identity and Gaza/Ukraine.

Impressions of the candidates in roughly ascending order of how I thought they did:

Rowbotham (Ind) - is apparently one of about 5 linked indies across Edinburgh as a party who want people to join online and decide their policies. As a result he didn't have much to say and hardly spoke apart from a banal statement on international relations that everyone needed to put the guns down and talk.

Scottish Family Party - every time he spoke (except Gaza which was probably his best moment, although I didn't agree with him) was off topic - fiscal policy was about the family, VAT on schools was replied to with something about self-identity.

Alba - was a stand in for the real candidate (who is apparently a caseworker for Ash Regan) - American Woman, former CND chair, quite a hoot, but rather crazy as well - really launched into Reform for their borrowed Americanisms (Contract with the people), then predictably went on a rant about changing rooms and even longer one on foreign policy until her mike had to be switched off.

Reform - Cameron Rose spoke well as ever, but it was all such nonsense - spoke about retiring from being a councillor (he was defeated) and that was about the most accurate thing he said all evening.

Conservative - well spoken, but a lot of buck shifting and twice had to be cut short by the chair because he kept rambling on, was probably on his best on school fees.

Martin (Ind) - performed well, but quite pushy/passionate/shouty - very anti-party politics, had some good moments and then outed himself as a pro-Gaza indy at the end who wouldn't be out of place in the Workers Party, ranting about Labour being funded by Israel and the Conservatives by Russian oligarchs.

Green - not the most confident speaker, really only came into on questions about climate change and energy, but spoke well enough on them.

SNP - slightly nervy and naive at times, but also quite passionate in quite an endearing way - batted back Reform on climate change and used her own experience in NHS in talking about self-identity, but finished that slightly unclearly.

Labour - predictably solid performance. PLayed everything with a straight bat and defended his corner reasonably well. Struggled a wee bit on Gaza with a lot of heckling, but had possibly the best line of the night on energy and the SNP, although I'm not sure half the audience picked it up.

Lib Dem - stated slightly shakily describing himself as being "radicalised" as a Lib Dem... but thereafter did well, spoke very clearly and passionately, differentiated himself from both Labour and Conservative and held his own well, on balance probably did the best of everyone.

[Eastwood]

Edinburgh wide the percentage of children in private schools is somewhere in the region of 17%. Varies between primary and secondary with around 12% of primary children fee paying and 22% of secondary children.

In Edinburgh South specifically I’d expect those rates to be somewhat higher and for there to be more crossover between Labour voters and fee paying school users than probably any other constituency in the UK.

An additional concern for some parents might be around the potential consequences of VAT on the state run schools. A drop in fee paying take up similar to that caused by the 2006 credit crunch could see around 1000 extra children needing a state school place in Edinburgh and some popular secondary schools could severely struggle.

The council’s education team will be hoping that VAT is phased in over a few years and that any fall in fee paying take up is spread over a few years, mainly via lower numbers moving from state to fee paying in P6-S1.

Ultimately I don’t expect it to prevent Ian Murray from winning but it could suppress his majority.

[Deleted]

Jun 21, 2024 14:46:47 GMT Eastwood said:

Edinburgh wide the percentage of children in private schools is somewhere in the region of 17%. Varies between primary and secondary with around 12% of primary children fee paying and 22% of secondary children.

In Edinburgh South specifically I’d expect those rates to be somewhat higher and for there to be more crossover between Labour voters and fee paying school users than probably any other constituency in the UK.

An additional concern for some parents might be around the potential consequences of VAT on the state run schools. A drop in fee paying take up similar to that caused by the 2006 credit crunch could see around 1000 extra children needing a state school place in Edinburgh and some popular secondary schools could severely struggle.

The council’s education team will be hoping that VAT is phased in over a few years and that any fall in fee paying take up is spread over a few years, mainly via lower numbers moving from state to fee paying in P6-S1.

Ultimately I don’t expect it to prevent Ian Murray from winning but it could suppress his majority.

Given that Murray has a hefty majority and Labour are set for a full recovery in Scotland; I think there will be tactical unwind - remember that the Lib Dems almost won this seat in 2005 and 2010. Similarly, the Tories could pick up some votes in Colinton and Fairmilehead, although it appears to be trending against them long-term. I have actually tutored someone to get into Fettes and parents of children at the school are well-represented here, in West, and to a lesser extent, South West. 

[Tony Otim]

Jun 22, 2024 1:40:39 GMT @weld said:

Jun 21, 2024 14:46:47 GMT Eastwood said:

Edinburgh wide the percentage of children in private schools is somewhere in the region of 17%. Varies between primary and secondary with around 12% of primary children fee paying and 22% of secondary children.

In Edinburgh South specifically I’d expect those rates to be somewhat higher and for there to be more crossover between Labour voters and fee paying school users than probably any other constituency in the UK.

An additional concern for some parents might be around the potential consequences of VAT on the state run schools. A drop in fee paying take up similar to that caused by the 2006 credit crunch could see around 1000 extra children needing a state school place in Edinburgh and some popular secondary schools could severely struggle.

The council’s education team will be hoping that VAT is phased in over a few years and that any fall in fee paying take up is spread over a few years, mainly via lower numbers moving from state to fee paying in P6-S1.

Ultimately I don’t expect it to prevent Ian Murray from winning but it could suppress his majority.

Given that Murray has a hefty majority and Labour are set for a full recovery in Scotland; I think there will be tactical unwind - remember that the Lib Dems almost won this seat in 2005 and 2010. Similarly, the Tories could pick up some votes in Colinton and Fairmilehead, although it appears to be trending against them long-term. I have actually tutored someone to get into Fettes and parents of children at the school are well-represented here, in West, and to a lesser extent, South West. 

The most Tory parts of Colinton Fairmilehead are in South West really, although there will certainly still be some votes around Fairmilehead.

In terms of the impact of VAT on school fees, it's not primarily Fettes parents that we're talking about. They would tend to be more genuinely wealthy, less likely to be voting Labour and more scattered - more in line with top private schools in other parts of the country.

It's the parents of Watson, Heriots, Melvilles, St George's, etc...who tend to be more middle-income, will include more Labour voters, be harder hit by the policy and be concentrated in certain parts of Edinburgh in ways that are fairly unique in Scotland.

[Deleted]

Jun 22, 2024 8:36:39 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jun 22, 2024 1:40:39 GMT @weld said:

Given that Murray has a hefty majority and Labour are set for a full recovery in Scotland; I think there will be tactical unwind - remember that the Lib Dems almost won this seat in 2005 and 2010. Similarly, the Tories could pick up some votes in Colinton and Fairmilehead, although it appears to be trending against them long-term. I have actually tutored someone to get into Fettes and parents of children at the school are well-represented here, in West, and to a lesser extent, South West. 

The most Tory parts of Colinton Fairmilehead are in South West really, although there will certainly still be some votes around Fairmilehead.

In terms of the impact of VAT on school fees, it's not primarily Fettes parents that we're talking about. They would tend to be more genuinely wealthy, less likely to be voting Labour and more scattered - more in line with top private schools in other parts of the country.

It's the parents of Watson, Heriots, Melvilles, St George's, etc...who tend to be more middle-income, will include more Labour voters, be harder hit by the policy and be concentrated in certain parts of Edinburgh in ways that are fairly unique in Scotland.

I guess a lot of people, feeling confident that the SNP can't win, will go back to voting Lib Dem like they used to before 2015.

[edgbaston]

Jun 22, 2024 9:07:18 GMT @weld said:

Jun 22, 2024 8:36:39 GMT Tony Otim said:

The most Tory parts of Colinton Fairmilehead are in South West really, although there will certainly still be some votes around Fairmilehead.

In terms of the impact of VAT on school fees, it's not primarily Fettes parents that we're talking about. They would tend to be more genuinely wealthy, less likely to be voting Labour and more scattered - more in line with top private schools in other parts of the country.

It's the parents of Watson, Heriots, Melvilles, St George's, etc...who tend to be more middle-income, will include more Labour voters, be harder hit by the policy and be concentrated in certain parts of Edinburgh in ways that are fairly unique in Scotland.

I guess a lot of people, feeling confident that the SNP can't win, will go back to voting Lib Dem like they used to before 2015.

The Lib Dems didn’t just collapse in 2015 for tactical reasons, I hate to break it to you. Have they been campaigning here? If not I’d expect a percentage point increase or two at best..

[Deleted]

Jun 22, 2024 10:31:08 GMT edgbaston said:

Jun 22, 2024 9:07:18 GMT @weld said:

I guess a lot of people, feeling confident that the SNP can't win, will go back to voting Lib Dem like they used to before 2015.

The Lib Dems didn’t just collapse in 2015 for tactical reasons, I hate to break it to you. Have they been campaigning here? If not I’d expect a percentage point increase or two at best..

Sure, the coalition hurt them too, but it isn't THAT different to Edinburgh West.