Clark
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Post by Clark on May 22, 2024 20:12:46 GMT
It will be interesting to see if this becomes the safest Labour seat in Scotland - I think yes, it will be.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2024 20:16:48 GMT
It will be interesting to see if this becomes the safest Labour seat in Scotland - I think yes, it will be. It was the most marginal Labour seat in Scotland in 2005 and 2010, IIRC. Labour have held this seat continuously since 1987 - how many other seats are like that? |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on May 22, 2024 20:22:51 GMT
It will be interesting to see if this becomes the safest Labour seat in Scotland - I think yes, it will be. It was the most marginal Labour seat in Scotland in 2005 and 2010, IIRC. Labour have held this seat continuously since 1987 - how many other seats are like that? Yes you're right - I'd forgotten about those Lib Dem challenges back then. This seat traditionally did contain very Tory areas but the unionist vote seems to have galvanized around Labour now. I suspect the SNP will fall back below 20% here like the other parties leaving Murray with a vote share in the mid 50's and a 5 figure majority again. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on May 22, 2024 20:43:05 GMT
It will be interesting to see if this becomes the safest Labour seat in Scotland - I think yes, it will be. To be fair it has been the not only the safest Labour seat in Scotland but the only Labour seat in Scotland for many years. The one question is will the anti-Nationalist tactical voters continue to vote Labour if the SNP threat is perceived to have declined? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 22, 2024 20:47:01 GMT
Posts like this in forgone conclusion seats seem a bit obvious? Tell me an interesting fact about the seat, a candidate, or something els related to the election. Speculate on the majority, the share, how the losing parties will do and why. ‘Labour hold’ -well, yes. If Labour make the multiple Scottish gains that are expected then Ian Murray will have come full circle in a sense from being the last man standing in 2015 Lucky for him he bottled it at the 11th hour about joining Change UK. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on May 22, 2024 21:41:26 GMT
It will be interesting to see if this becomes the safest Labour seat in Scotland - I think yes, it will be. It was the most marginal Labour seat in Scotland in 2005 and 2010, IIRC. Labour have held this seat continuously since 1987 - how many other seats are like that? As you noted, it has been knife-edged at times. There was a 316 majority in 2010 and 405 in 2005. Also the Scottish Parliament seat: Edinburgh South was held (initially on the same boundaries) by the Lib Dems from 2003 to 2011 and the successor seat, Edinburgh Southern, was SNP from 2011-2016. Murray benefitted by the post-coalition collapse on the Lib Dem vote. In different circumstances, it could have become a Lib Dem seat. |
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Post by johnloony on May 23, 2024 0:01:49 GMT
It will be interesting to see if this becomes the safest Labour seat in Scotland - I think yes, it will be. It already is |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 23, 2024 5:46:15 GMT
It will be interesting to see if this becomes the safest Labour seat in Scotland - I think yes, it will be. It was the most marginal Labour seat in Scotland in 2005 and 2010, IIRC. Labour have held this seat continuously since 1987 - how many other seats are like that? Oxford East, Leicester East, Nottingham North, Halifax, Leeds West, Newcastle Central, Newport West, Cardiff West |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 23, 2024 6:31:15 GMT
It was the most marginal Labour seat in Scotland in 2005 and 2010, IIRC. Labour have held this seat continuously since 1987 - how many other seats are like that? As you noted, it has been knife-edged at times. There was a 316 majority in 2010 and 405 in 2005. Also the Scottish Parliament seat: Edinburgh South was held (initially on the same boundaries) by the Lib Dems from 2003 to 2011 and the successor seat, Edinburgh Southern, was SNP from 2011-2016. Murray benefitted by the post-coalition collapse on the Lib Dem vote. In different circumstances, it could have become a Lib Dem seat. It had the same big SNP surge that every seat had in 2015 but like you say it seems that Murray managed to win over enough of the Lib Dem vote to counter it Since then he’s done well to build up and maintain a solid coalition to comfortably keep the SNP at bay, part of the reason he was so anti-Corbyn was probably because he was off putting to hardline unionist voters |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on May 23, 2024 7:07:25 GMT
Murray was also probably helped in 2015 by the whole Paco McSheepie thing, although probably would just have held anyway.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 23, 2024 7:44:49 GMT
Murray was also probably helped in 2015 by the whole Paco McSheepie thing, although probably would just have held anyway. Whatever did happen to Neil Hay after that? |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on May 23, 2024 16:50:44 GMT
Murray was also probably helped in 2015 by the whole Paco McSheepie thing, although probably would just have held anyway. Whatever did happen to Neil Hay after that? Hopefully he disappeared from public life after vowing to crack down on tax dodgers. It turned out he was working as a tax avoidance consultant. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on May 23, 2024 23:38:58 GMT
Hopefully he disappeared from public life after vowing to crack down on tax dodgers. It turned out he was working as a tax avoidance consultant. And just what is wrong with that very honourable and useful profession? Nothing at all. Just don’t try and diss their work in tawdry campaign literature. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jun 7, 2024 23:56:09 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 8, 2024 9:38:23 GMT
Reform candidate is former Conservative cllr for Southside Newington Cameron Rose.
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 8, 2024 11:45:22 GMT
So the Candidates in full: Christopher Cowdy (Con) - sitting councillor for Fountainbridge Craiglockhart (not in this constituency) Phil Holden (SFP) - contested Edinburgh Southern (Holyrood) in 2021 and Inverleith ward in 2022 Simita Kumar (SNP) - sitting councillor for Southside Newington Lynne Lyon (Alba) - know nothing about her Alex Martin (Independent) - www.alexmartinmp.co.uk/ - reasonably professional looking website, generally supporting public services type of indy. Won't stand out from the crowd Ian Murray (Lab) - the incumbent - will walk this by a mile. Jo Phillips (Green) - a landscape architect, first time as candidate Cameron Rose (Reform) - former Conservative councillor (and group leader, iirc) for Southside Newington. Had a personal vote as a councillor, but still lost his seat in 2022. Whether that vote transfers across to Reform remains to be seen. Could possibly help them save the deposit Mark Rowbotham (Independent) - can't find anything about him. Andy Williamson (Liberal Democrat) - runs a consultancy to help organisations support neurodversity. So far I've had absolutely nothing from any of them. Murray wins this comfortably. Second place could be well back and well below 20%. 3 parties could possibly come 2nd, but I think Rose hurts the Conservatives too much and I'm not sure the Lib Dems are doing enough here to get it, so the SNP probably hold 2nd. The Greens and Reform could possibly both hold the deposit on a good day, but I'm not sure there's enough votes for 6 held deposits, so perhaps neither do... The rest will not get much between them. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 15, 2024 10:39:14 GMT
Poll cards received yesterday. Still nothing from any party since several months before the election was called.
Labour team hanging out on street corner in Morningside this morning. One Labour poster seen in Morningside, one Green one in Newington last weekend - only signs if any election activity so far.
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Jun 15, 2024 12:53:56 GMT
Poll cards received yesterday. Still nothing from any party since several months before the election was called. Labour team hanging out on street corner in Morningside this morning. One Labour poster seen in Morningside, one Green one in Newington last weekend - only signs if any election activity so far. It's probably the seat with the most certain outcome in Scotland |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 15, 2024 13:17:16 GMT
Poll cards received yesterday. Still nothing from any party since several months before the election was called. Labour team hanging out on street corner in Morningside this morning. One Labour poster seen in Morningside, one Green one in Newington last weekend - only signs if any election activity so far. It's probably the seat with the most certain outcome in Scotland Along with 1 or 2 others like Orkney & Shetland. Feels very dull this year... |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 15, 2024 18:11:19 GMT
You would certainly never guess that a general election was on in Bruntsfield and Merchiston. Not a sign of a poster anywhere that I have seen.
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