stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 1:54:57 GMT
Edinburgh South
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Post by yellowfox on Mar 19, 2024 21:21:15 GMT
Ian Murray, Labour incumbent since 2010, defends a 10,795 (20%) vote notional majority here. He's currently the shadow Scotland secretary, although that has been a post with precious few qualified candidates in recent years.
Murray has built an impregnable support base here, it being the safest seat in Scotland in 2017, in part due to being able to receive the support of anti-SNP voters in this constituency. He's virtually certain to hold on this year, and probably by the largest margin in the country, as in 2017.
The SNP have nominated Simita Kumar, who's been a councillor for the Southside and Newington ward since 2022.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 19, 2024 22:48:14 GMT
I remember not so long ago when this was the most marginal seat in Scotland. Surely one of the safest again following the election. The only question is who comes second.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Apr 2, 2024 22:13:04 GMT
I remember not so long ago when this was the most marginal seat in Scotland. Surely one of the safest again following the election. The only question is who comes second. I recall it being a very safe Tory seat electing Michael Ancram for many years. Basically the lovely old ladies in Morningside, who were solid Tory voters have died out and been replaced by younger families working in the NHS and the Universities. Tactical anti-SNP voting is largely responsible for the size of the majority. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 3, 2024 11:19:45 GMT
It was never a 'very safe' Tory seat while Michael Ancram represented it
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Post by batman on Apr 3, 2024 12:16:04 GMT
No. It was in the more distant past. In fact Ancram only won 2 elections there & lost it to Nigel Griffiths in 1987, previously representing (briefly) Berwick & E Lothian. Even in 1983 the seat was a 3-way marginal.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 3, 2024 12:36:37 GMT
I hadn't realised until looking back over the results from before my time that Gordon Brown was the candidate here in 1979.
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Clark
Forum Regular
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Post by Clark on Apr 3, 2024 20:29:18 GMT
Indeed it was never safe. Just like Pentlands next door was never truly safe for Rifkind either.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Apr 4, 2024 4:17:52 GMT
It was never a 'very safe' Tory seat while Michael Ancram represented it Well it was represented by the Conservatives from 1918 to 1987, and previously from 1885 to 1918 by the Liberals. So obviously a knife-edged marginal seat having returned Tory MPs for 62 years! Demographic change is behind the shift along with tactical voting. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Apr 4, 2024 21:42:36 GMT
It was never a 'very safe' Tory seat while Michael Ancram represented it Well it was represented by the Conservatives from 1918 to 1987, and previously from 1885 to 1918 by the Liberals. So obviously a knife-edged marginal seat having returned Tory MPs for 62 years! Demographic change is behind the shift along with tactical voting. Pete has a point through. It wasn't safe anymore at all when Ancram became the MP. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Apr 5, 2024 2:02:17 GMT
Well it was represented by the Conservatives from 1918 to 1987, and previously from 1885 to 1918 by the Liberals. So obviously a knife-edged marginal seat having returned Tory MPs for 62 years! Demographic change is behind the shift along with tactical voting. Pete has a point through. It wasn't safe anymore at all when Ancram became the MP. It was rather like Pentlands which had been predicted to go Labour especially after the construction of the Wester Hailes estate but it never happened until 1997. |
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Post by michaelarden on Apr 6, 2024 17:10:59 GMT
Indeed it was never safe. Just like Pentlands next door was never truly safe for Rifkind either. It and Pentlands were safe in a Kensington and Chelsea way until the Tories died and were replaced by non-Tories. |
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Apr 6, 2024 17:15:45 GMT
Indeed it was never safe. Just like Pentlands next door was never truly safe for Rifkind either. It and Pentlands were safe in a Kensington and Chelsea way until the Tories died and were replaced by non-Tories. I think reliably Tory is the term rather than safe Tory. |
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Post by batman on Apr 6, 2024 17:40:36 GMT
A cursory glance at the Wiki entry for Edinburgh Pentlands shows that the Tory majority was never five figures. The very highest was 8,792 in 1959. There has always been a strong Labour vote but it was not enough to win until 1997.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 6, 2024 19:18:50 GMT
It and Pentlands were safe in a Kensington and Chelsea way until the Tories died and were replaced by non-Tories. I think reliably Tory is the term rather than safe Tory. Yes. It's a category of constituency that no longer really exists as voting habits have become more volatile, but you can't understand postwar elections (especially) without reference to it. Interestingly, of course, it was also an important category in the Late Victorian and Edwardian era, but (like now) very much gone by the 1920s and 30s with a few odd exceptions such as Merioneth. |
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on Apr 6, 2024 19:21:42 GMT
I think reliably Tory is the term rather than safe Tory. Yes. It's a category of constituency that no longer really exists as voting habits have become more volatile, but you can't understand postwar elections (especially) without reference to it. Interestingly, of course, it was also an important category in the Late Victorian and Edwardian era, but (like now) very much gone by the 1920s and 30s with a few odd exceptions such as Merioneth. You could argue seats that have been trending in a particular direction, like Edgbaston being reliably Labour since 1997 but not safely so until recently. I don't think there's many seats that fall into that category and remain that way for much longer than a decade. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Apr 7, 2024 21:16:24 GMT
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr is a possible example - Plaid Cymru at all the last 6 elections* with majorities ranging from 4.4% to 17.6% over that time
*so from 2001 onwards
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Post by connor on May 22, 2024 18:41:27 GMT
No surprises here
Labour hold
Ian Murray MP (Labour)
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Post by edgbaston on May 22, 2024 19:27:32 GMT
No surprises here Labour hold Ian Murray MP (Labour) Posts like this in forgone conclusion seats seem a bit obvious? Tell me an interesting fact about the seat, a candidate, or something els related to the election. Speculate on the majority, the share, how the losing parties will do and why. ‘Labour hold’ -well, yes. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on May 22, 2024 19:29:37 GMT
No surprises here Labour hold Ian Murray MP (Labour) Posts like this in forgone conclusion seats seem a bit obvious? Tell me an interesting fact about the seat, a candidate, or something els related to the election. Speculate on the majority, the share, how the losing parties will do and why. ‘Labour hold’ -well, yes. If Labour make the multiple Scottish gains that are expected then Ian Murray will have come full circle in a sense from being the last man standing in 2015 |
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