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Post by Kristofer Keane on Jun 2, 2024 16:33:22 GMT
The most notable trend in canvass returns has been people saying they're normally Conservative voters but undecided or won't vote this time. Not seen many ex-Tories saying they're definitely moving to any other party, which leaves me convinced that a good chunk of them will end up actually voting Conservative anyway.
Found my first Lib Dem intending voter today.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Jun 2, 2024 16:53:50 GMT
The most notable trend in canvass returns has been people saying they're normally Conservative voters but undecided or won't vote this time. Not seen many ex-Tories saying they're definitely moving to any other party, which leaves me convinced that a good chunk of them will end up actually voting Conservative anyway. Found my first Lib Dem intending voter today. Been canvassing Thorntonhall?  |
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Jun 2, 2024 16:56:49 GMT
Not yet!
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 2, 2024 21:40:53 GMT
Found my first Lib Dem intending voter today. The vanishingly rare nature of Lib Dem voters in much of Scotland is a shock to those of us who grew up in LD targets. They lose more deposits than they win seats |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jun 2, 2024 22:21:25 GMT
Found my first Lib Dem intending voter today. The vanishingly rare nature of Lib Dem voters in much of Scotland is a shock to those of us who grew up in LD targets. They lose more deposits than they win seats I feel the same about most of Wales these days. Then again, I was raised in Alliance/LD targets in England. |
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Jun 7, 2024 17:41:46 GMT
Grant Daniel Costello - SNP
Ross Alexander Lambie - Conservatives and Unionists
Donald Mackay - UKIP
Ann McGuinness - Greens
David Mills - Reform
Aisha Mir - Lib Dems
Joani Reid - Labour
David Richardson - Scottish Family Party
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Jun 12, 2024 12:40:59 GMT
I'm surprised at the number of people predicting a Labour gain here - notionally on the new boundaries this is the SNP's safest seat in the central belt and needs a 12.7% swing to flip. If the SNP lose this then we're looking at a return to single figures of SNP MPs, or the low 10s at most, confined to the Highlands, North East, and Ayrshire.
Personally I think we will hold this seat with a majority of still at least a few thousand.
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Post by threecrowns on Jun 12, 2024 12:48:19 GMT
If the SNP lose this then we're looking at a return to single figures of SNP MPs, or the low 10s at most, confined to the Highlands, North East, and Ayrshire. Isn't that what most people are expecting? |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Jun 12, 2024 12:50:50 GMT
I'm surprised at the number of people predicting a Labour gain here - notionally on the new boundaries this is the SNP's safest seat in the central belt and needs a 12.7% swing to flip. If the SNP lose this then we're looking at a return to single figures of SNP MPs, or the low 10s at most, confined to the Highlands, North East, and Ayrshire. Personally I think we will hold this seat with a majority of still at least a few thousand. As well as Labour winning votes from the SNP there’s also quite a decent Tory vote for them to win over here, even if only on a tactical basis |
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Jun 12, 2024 13:11:38 GMT
If the SNP lose this then we're looking at a return to single figures of SNP MPs, or the low 10s at most, confined to the Highlands, North East, and Ayrshire. Isn't that what most people are expecting? It would be pushing the low end of expectations. 20-ish seems more likely, retaining at least a few central belt seats (Livingston and Cumbernauld seats relatively likely, maybe East Renfrewshire if the Tory vote doesn't collapse to Labour). |
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xenon
Forum Regular
Posts: 426
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Post by xenon on Jun 12, 2024 13:14:15 GMT
This seat's proximity to Glasgow and Central Lanarkshire (where Labour's vote has held up in recent elections) will likely mean that increased Labour support there rubs off here too – compared to some others like West Lothian and Ayrshire where the core Labour vote has been completely hollowed out recently.
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on Jun 12, 2024 14:26:47 GMT
The SNP have also done slightly better in new towns than other parts of the central belt, like Glenrothes, Livingston and Cumbernauld - and what limited campaign intelligence I've heard suggests they still will be. That's not to say they'll win though.
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Post by greyfriar on Jun 15, 2024 10:19:26 GMT
The most notable trend in canvass returns has been people saying they're normally Conservative voters but undecided or won't vote this time. Not seen many ex-Tories saying they're definitely moving to any other party, which leaves me convinced that a good chunk of them will end up actually voting Conservative anyway. Found my first Lib Dem intending voter today. One suspects people who are normally SNP voters may well be saying the same to Labour canvassers. The striking element of the unexpected loss of seats in 2017 wasn’t switching, but loyal voters declining to get off the couch. Arguably the incentive to make the effort to do so to give a bloody nose to either of our tired incumbent administrations is greater this time round. |
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Jun 15, 2024 14:49:59 GMT
The most notable trend in canvass returns has been people saying they're normally Conservative voters but undecided or won't vote this time. Not seen many ex-Tories saying they're definitely moving to any other party, which leaves me convinced that a good chunk of them will end up actually voting Conservative anyway. Found my first Lib Dem intending voter today. One suspects people who are normally SNP voters may well be saying the same to Labour canvassers. The striking element of the unexpected loss of seats in 2017 wasn’t switching, but loyal voters declining to get off the couch. Arguably the incentive to make the effort to do so to give a bloody nose to either of our tired incumbent administrations is greater this time round. We've got all our postal voters mailed now. Meanwhile have finally seen a first Labour leaflet starting to go out. Still nothing from any other party, though I expect most will rely on just the Royal Mail freepost. |
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Post by yellowfox on Jun 15, 2024 21:23:47 GMT
I'm voting here and received a labour leaflet in the early days of the campaign, nothing from the SNP. Labour have one billboard in a high visibility area, nothing from the SNP. It really seems like Labour could do it here.
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Jun 16, 2024 15:22:21 GMT
Labour now have an office set up in the town centre, but I've also been told that local activists have been advised to go to either Paisley or Cumbernauld instead, so I'm not very clear as to whether they think they can win the seat or not. Still never seen any sign of any activists out and about.
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Jun 16, 2024 15:31:56 GMT
I'm voting here and received a labour leaflet in the early days of the campaign, nothing from the SNP. Labour have one billboard in a high visibility area, nothing from the SNP. It really seems like Labour could do it here. The SNP is on a tight budget, so our campaign is highly targeted. If the computer thinks you're either a definite SNP or definite not SNP voter you will have gotten at most one leaflet so far. Swing voters should be up to three mailings each. Then it was all postal voter letters this weekend. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Jun 16, 2024 17:01:58 GMT
I'm voting here and received a labour leaflet in the early days of the campaign, nothing from the SNP. Labour have one billboard in a high visibility area, nothing from the SNP. It really seems like Labour could do it here. The SNP is on a tight budget, so our campaign is highly targeted. If the computer thinks you're either a definite SNP or definite not SNP voter you will have gotten at most one leaflet so far. The computer says no! |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 16, 2024 17:45:25 GMT
I'm voting here and received a labour leaflet in the early days of the campaign, nothing from the SNP. Labour have one billboard in a high visibility area, nothing from the SNP. It really seems like Labour could do it here. The SNP is on a tight budget, so our campaign is highly targeted. If the computer thinks you're either a definite SNP or definite not SNP voter you will have gotten at most one leaflet so far. Swing voters should be up to three mailings each. Then it was all postal voter letters this weekend. Now, where did all the money go? |
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Post by greyfriar on Jun 16, 2024 18:35:18 GMT
I'm voting here and received a labour leaflet in the early days of the campaign, nothing from the SNP. Labour have one billboard in a high visibility area, nothing from the SNP. It really seems like Labour could do it here. The SNP is on a tight budget, so our campaign is highly targeted. If the computer thinks you're either a definite SNP or definite not SNP voter you will have gotten at most one leaflet so far. Swing voters should be up to three mailings each. Then it was all postal voter letters this weekend. How are volunteer levels holding up? |
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