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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 1, 2024 13:24:06 GMT
You're not exactly sticking your neck out there.. Obviously they can win here. The question I should have thought you are seeking to answer here is whether they will. I do hope you are going to restrict this spamming to the Scottish threads.. TBF I have made predictions on the NI threads which I believe I can substantiate. Check them out, Pete. Also I have been on this site a while and have a good record of political predictions notice ROI for example but equally NI and I have quite a decent knowledge of Scotland gleaned over the years as well as a quite useful knowledge of Europe and global politics. I predicted a gain on the poll. I said I think the SNP can win. IE I think they can win the seat. It's pretty simple to understand it. Are you policing the political analysis as to who can post a prediction or a view on any political thread? I've read your posts on the Northern Ireland threads and take an interest them (less so on ther ROI stuff, simply because I'm not much interested in the political culture there). I'm not policing anything, but there have been instances of other posters being called out for posting a series of 'Lab Gain', 'SNP hold' type of posts on every thread and that this clutters the recent threads feature that many use to navigate the site. Also if everyone were to do it, every thread would just become a stream of repetitve posts of that kind. |
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,417
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 4, 2024 7:13:49 GMT
Stephen Kerr was a Mormon - did that make a difference?
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 4, 2024 7:42:47 GMT
Stephen Kerr was a Mormon - did that make a difference? Unlikely- the margin was almost 5000 votes and I wouldn't see this as a part of Scotland where religious affiliation would have anything more than a very minor impact... |
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Post by batman on Sept 4, 2024 7:42:50 GMT
very much doubt it.
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Post by uthacalthing on Sept 9, 2024 15:10:30 GMT
It's an interesting question. There are religious affiliations that do move voting intentions, both positively and negatively. And others that don't. And it is not party or geographically consistent
In the Western Isles, I don't think the fact that you are Catholic or Free Presbyterian moves the dial much. People know you have to be one or the other. But in Airdrie and Coatbridge being Catholic or not being Catholic matters.
Being Free Presbyterian where it is seen as a choice is seen as a negative. Being a faith that is seen as irrelevant, like Anglican or Mormon, is ignored. Being a Muslim is both a positive and a negative electorally.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 9, 2024 23:15:06 GMT
It's an interesting question. There are religious affiliations that do move voting intentions, both positively and negatively. And others that don't. And it is not party or geographically consistent In the Western Isles, I don't think the fact that you are Catholic or Free Presbyterian moves the dial much. People know you have to be one or the other. But in Airdrie and Coatbridge being Catholic or not being Catholic matters. Being Free Presbyterian where it is seen as a choice is seen as a negative. Being a faith that is seen as irrelevant, like Anglican or Mormon, is ignored. Being a Muslim is both a positive and a negative electorally. How do you explain the fact that Roman Catholic islands are significantly more likely to vote SNP than the Free Presbyterian islands, if not due to religion? |
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Sept 10, 2024 2:19:18 GMT
The Free Presbyterians only have thirty congregations in Scotland, twenty four of which are in the Highlands and Islands. Why are they particularly relevant over any other denomination?
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Post by uthacalthing on Sept 10, 2024 12:09:42 GMT
How do you explain the fact that Roman Catholic islands are significantly more likely to vote SNP than the Free Presbyterian islands, if not due to religion? they are less Unionist. But I don't think it would bother them if the SNP candidate was notionally Protestant, as long as they were not Unionist |
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Post by aargauer on Sept 13, 2024 15:19:33 GMT
How do you explain the fact that Roman Catholic islands are significantly more likely to vote SNP than the Free Presbyterian islands, if not due to religion? they are less Unionist. But I don't think it would bother them if the SNP candidate was notionally Protestant, as long as they were not Unionist What if they were atheist? |
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Post by uthacalthing on Sept 13, 2024 16:29:02 GMT
Most of the Catholics are. Actually, most of the Protestants as well
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