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Post by batman on Jun 11, 2024 10:53:21 GMT
Not following Scottish Parliamentary politics as closely as I do Westminster, it took me quite some time to discover that Johann Lamont was female. I wondered why a Scottish bloke had a German forename and then eventually she made a TV appearance & the mystery was solved.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2024 11:43:13 GMT
Not following Scottish Parliamentary politics as closely as I do Westminster, it took me quite some time to discover that Johann Lamont was female. I wondered why a Scottish bloke had a German forename and then eventually she made a TV appearance & the mystery was solved. There is also a John Lamont. |
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Jun 11, 2024 11:50:24 GMT
Not following Scottish Parliamentary politics as closely as I do Westminster, it took me quite some time to discover that Johann Lamont was female. I wondered why a Scottish bloke had a German forename and then eventually she made a TV appearance & the mystery was solved. Johann is Gaelic, I think Judith is the English equivalent. It’s not a common name, I only ever knew one elderly lady by that name until I heard of Johann Lamont. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2024 13:12:26 GMT
Not following Scottish Parliamentary politics as closely as I do Westminster, it took me quite some time to discover that Johann Lamont was female. I wondered why a Scottish bloke had a German forename and then eventually she made a TV appearance & the mystery was solved. There is also a John Lamont. Perhaps he is 'transitioning'? I believe it is 'all the rage' in Scotland? |
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Post by batman on Jun 11, 2024 13:52:24 GMT
Not following Scottish Parliamentary politics as closely as I do Westminster, it took me quite some time to discover that Johann Lamont was female. I wondered why a Scottish bloke had a German forename and then eventually she made a TV appearance & the mystery was solved. There is also a John Lamont. yes I'm aware of that, he had come up in the discussion in the thread which is why I mentioned Johann of that name. Apologies for derailing the thread. Judith means originally "the Jewish one" and Yehudi or Ehud in modern Hebrew are the male equivalents. I'd be very surprised if Johann were the Gaelic equivalent to Judith but you never know. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2024 14:56:28 GMT
There is also a John Lamont. yes I'm aware of that, he had come up in the discussion in the thread which is why I mentioned Johann of that name. Apologies for derailing the thread. Judith means originally "the Jewish one" and Yehudi or Ehud in modern Hebrew are the male equivalents. I'd be very surprised if Johann were the Gaelic equivalent to Judith but you never know. I thought it was more likely Joanne? |
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Post by batman on Jun 11, 2024 15:21:14 GMT
that's what I would have thought too
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Jun 11, 2024 15:23:05 GMT
yes I'm aware of that, he had come up in the discussion in the thread which is why I mentioned Johann of that name. Apologies for derailing the thread. Judith means originally "the Jewish one" and Yehudi or Ehud in modern Hebrew are the male equivalents. I'd be very surprised if Johann were the Gaelic equivalent to Judith but you never know. I thought it was more likely Joanne? I think Joanne would be Seonaidh. Edit: just occurred to me that Johan can’t be Gaelic as there is of course no letter J in Gaelic. Possibly borrowed into Gaelic? |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 11, 2024 19:05:04 GMT
I am surprised members of this forum are predicting a Conservative gain given that the Conservative vote share will definitely take a heavy hit in Scotland, more so than the SNP. The Conservatives will be lucky to avoid a wipeout in Scotland at Westminster level just like they did in 1997, especially since this time none of their Scottish seats have a majority greater than 10% notionally.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 11, 2024 20:04:52 GMT
I am surprised members of this forum are predicting a Conservative gain given that the Conservative vote share will definitely take a heavy hit in Scotland, more so than the SNP. The Conservatives will be lucky to avoid a wipeout in Scotland at Westminster level just like they did in 1997, especially since this time none of their Scottish seats have a majority greater than 10% notionally. I generally agree with that. The problem is that both the Conservatives and the SNP are generally very unpopular. I am sure that both will lose seats in straight fights with the Lib-Dems and Labour. The issue is, what will happen in seats which are, effectively straight fights between SNP and Conservatives? I am not sure that anyone knows the answer. I don't see that Reform (or other rag, tag, and bobtail rightists) or the Greens or Alba doing a great deal. I suspect that the SNP may get the better here but individual MP's local perception could be critical. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 11, 2024 20:10:17 GMT
I don't think we'll be wiped out, but I don't think we'll gain this seat either. This election will be tough, especially after Dougie's implosion, and I'm not banking on gains.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2024 20:13:51 GMT
I don't think we'll be wiped out, but I don't think we'll gain this seat either. This election will be tough, especially after Dougie's implosion, and I'm not banking on gains. Gains outside of Moray West are tricky because at least in the North East the oil industry helps the Tories. The only way the Tories take the Perthsire seats is a (much) bigger fall in the Tory vote than the SNP one. I guess it's possible, but Moray West is a much more realistic gain than this seat or Perth & Kinross-shire. |
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Post by adlai52 on Jun 11, 2024 22:08:20 GMT
I am surprised members of this forum are predicting a Conservative gain given that the Conservative vote share will definitely take a heavy hit in Scotland, more so than the SNP. The Conservatives will be lucky to avoid a wipeout in Scotland at Westminster level just like they did in 1997, especially since this time none of their Scottish seats have a majority greater than 10% notionally. I generally agree with that. The problem is that both the Conservatives and the SNP are generally very unpopular. I am sure that both will lose seats in straight fights with the Lib-Dems and Labour. The issue is, what will happen in seats which are, effectively straight fights between SNP and Conservatives? I am not sure that anyone knows the answer. I don't see that Reform (or other rag, tag, and bobtail rightists) or the Greens or Alba doing a great deal. I suspect that the SNP may get the better here but individual MP's local perception could be critical. Recent events won't have helped, but the Conservative vote has held up a bit better in Scotland than elsewhere and local by-elections have suggested it may be more efficient. But I am skeptical of talk of gains in the current climate - the slump in support for the SNP will cushion the blow, so a wipe out is still unlikely, but I think they will be doing well to hold on to half their current seat total. Now, how quickly they recover will be interesting... because with the SNP in Holyrood and Labour in Westminster, there is a potential opportunity there for a well led Scottish Conservative Party. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2024 6:14:28 GMT
Yes. Lots of opportunities in 2026. However, Scottish polls don't account for tactical voting, which we know there'll be lots of on July 4th, including in this seat and the Aberdeenshire constituencies, to name a few. If Tories switch to Labour in the Central Belt, we may see a smaller Tory drop in the North East, where the Conservatives are the only viable unionist option. Scotland-wide polls won't show us the tactical voting under the bonnet. Still, the Tories came up short in Perthshire in 2001, 2017 and at the last Holyrood polls, so the SNP are firm favourites here.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 12, 2024 6:31:45 GMT
Yes. Lots of opportunities in 2026. However, Scottish polls don't account for tactical voting, which we know there'll be lots of on July 4th, including in this seat and the Aberdeenshire constituencies, to name a few. If Tories switch to Labour in the Central Belt, we may see a smaller Tory drop in the North East, where the Conservatives are the only viable unionist option. Scotland-wide polls won't show us the tactical voting under the bonnet. Still, the Tories came up short in Perthshire in 2001, 2017 and at the last Holyrood polls, so the SNP are firm favourites here. But I think this may be balanced out by the other side - I think there might be a smaller SNP drop where they are facing the Tories and a larger one against Labour in the Central belt. Not all tactical voting is going to be anti-SNP by any means. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2024 6:32:22 GMT
Yes. Lots of opportunities in 2026. However, Scottish polls don't account for tactical voting, which we know there'll be lots of on July 4th, including in this seat and the Aberdeenshire constituencies, to name a few. If Tories switch to Labour in the Central Belt, we may see a smaller Tory drop in the North East, where the Conservatives are the only viable unionist option. Scotland-wide polls won't show us the tactical voting under the bonnet. Still, the Tories came up short in Perthshire in 2001, 2017 and at the last Holyrood polls, so the SNP are firm favourites here. But I think this may be balanced out by the other side - I think there might be a smaller SNP drop where they are facing the Tories and a larger one against Labour in the Central belt. Not all tactical voting is going to be anti-SNP by any means. Fair enough. Inshallah it will be. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 26, 2024 21:18:39 GMT
Calling this for the SNP.
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Post by irish observer on Jul 1, 2024 11:37:08 GMT
I think SNP can win here.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 1, 2024 11:48:00 GMT
I think SNP can win here. You're not exactly sticking your neck out there.. Obviously they can win here. The question I should have thought you are seeking to answer here is whether they will. I do hope you are going to restrict this spamming to the Scottish threads.. |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 1, 2024 11:54:42 GMT
I think SNP can win here. You're not exactly sticking your neck out there.. Obviously they can win here. The question I should have thought you are seeking to answer here is whether they will. I do hope you are going to restrict this spamming to the Scottish threads.. TBF I have made predictions on the NI threads which I believe I can substantiate. Check them out, Pete. Also I have been on this site a while and have a good record of political predictions notice ROI for example but equally NI and I have quite a decent knowledge of Scotland gleaned over the years as well as a quite useful knowledge of Europe and global politics. I predicted a gain on the poll. I said I think the SNP can win. IE I think they can win the seat. It's pretty simple to understand it. Are you policing the political analysis as to who can post a prediction or a view on any political thread? |
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