Leeds South West and Morley

[Pete Whitehead]

Election candidate attacks their opponent. Shocking and unprecedented

[matureleft]

Jun 12, 2024 21:45:04 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Election candidate attacks their opponent. Shocking and unprecedented

Neither shocking nor unprecedented, but certainly unusual. Typically incumbents try to ignore opponents and certainly don’t name them in their own material. She’ll have handed him some publicity particularly if the attack becomes a news story as I presume it will. But she may have decided that in this circumstance she has little to lose. 

[Deleted]

Jun 12, 2024 21:45:04 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Election candidate attacks their opponent. Shocking and unprecedented

It's just not cricket, Pete Whitehead . 

[edgbaston]

She’s really gone off the deep end. With a new crazy haircut to boot. I’m old enough to remember when she was the Cameroon-Osbourne weapon to unseat Ed Balls.

[carlton43]

Jun 12, 2024 17:36:53 GMT markgoodair said:

Jun 12, 2024 17:24:13 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Have you met him?

I'm taking an educated guess the answer is no.

Have you ever, even once in your life, disparaged a politician you have not met?

[stb12]

Jun 12, 2024 22:12:33 GMT edgbaston said:

She’s really gone off the deep end. With a new crazy haircut to boot. I’m old enough to remember when she was the Cameroon-Osbourne weapon to unseat Ed Balls.

Could just be sheer frustration at defeat being inevitable, she was never winning this seat with the current national picture regardless of the tone of campaign etc

[thejedi]

Jun 12, 2024 16:32:15 GMT markgoodair said:

Jun 12, 2024 15:52:30 GMT carlton43 said:

Not at all.  That is a really good pitch and will up her vote.  The Labour bloke is a right little shit.

If you think Jenkins vote will increase on 2019 you are even more delusional than I thought.

Where/when did carlton43 suggest this?

[threecrowns]

"and will up her vote."

It's in the message that you've quoted.

[The Bishop]

Jun 13, 2024 10:11:14 GMT threecrowns said:

"and will up her vote."

It's in the message that you've quoted.

Tbf that may mean "up her vote from where it was previously" rather than "up her vote from the last GE". But I agree it is ambiguous.

[spqr]

Jun 13, 2024 10:11:14 GMT threecrowns said:

"and will up her vote."

It's in the message that you've quoted.

... but not necessarily from her 2019 total, which was the original point made.

Carlton was suggesting that Jenkyns's strategy would allow her to do better than she otherwise would have done in the context of this election - hence "upping her vote". Goodair decided to bring the previous election into it so he could make one of his usual limp attempts at provocation, nothing more.

[thejedi]

Jun 13, 2024 10:11:14 GMT threecrowns said:

"and will up her vote."

It's in the message that you've quoted.

Not necessarily “up her vote” from 2019, but getting more votes in this GE then she would have, if she didn’t put that leaflet out.

[Ron Swanson]

Initial canvassing returns have probably shown that Sunak is a disaster on the doorstep, so she is keen to distance herself from the leadership as much as possible, and make the campaign all about her.

A potentially wise move, you might say.

It could be the last act of a desperate candidate, a bit like the goalie going up for a set piece in the last minute… but sticking with the national campaign is a sure fire way of going down by a reasonable margin.

In doing the pic with Farage she has skewered (you would think) the official Reform candidate and got a fair number of folk back on side. Morley isn’t populated with huge numbers of Tories who’d be put off by Farage.

[cogload]

I have to ask, is Andrea Jenkyns a Labour agent like Truss was a LD agent sent into destroy the Conservative party...?

[ricmk]

I think she's a terrible MP and I hope she loses, really really badly.

But you've got to say that she's putting up a lot more fight than most of her colleagues. She's seen this coming from well before the election, ploughing an independent path and veering well off from the national campaign.
Reminds me (and she will hate the comparison) of Tim Farron at the 2019 GE who notably abandoned the national Lib Dem campaign and did his own thing. He knew what he was doing locally, he was clearly in tune with what people were saying and strong enough to make a major campaign swerve in the heat of battle. And of course, he won.

This may be an interesting result and I have a sneaky feeling she'll do better than some of her detractors think she will.

TLDR: carlton43 has a point

[matureleft]

Jun 14, 2024 9:09:10 GMT ricmk said:

I think she's a terrible MP and I hope she loses, really really badly.

But you've got to say that she's putting up a lot more fight than most of her colleagues. She's seen this coming from well before the election, ploughing an independent path and veering well off from the national campaign.
Reminds me (and she will hate the comparison) of Tim Farron at the 2019 GE who notably abandoned the national Lib Dem campaign and did his own thing. He knew what he was doing locally, he was clearly in tune with what people were saying and strong enough to make a major campaign swerve in the heat of battle. And of course, he won.

This may be an interesting result and I have a sneaky feeling she'll do better than some of her detractors think she will.

TLDR: carlton43 has a point

Although the two individuals aren't comparable the comparison of the response to circumstances is perhaps Elizabeth Peacock. She held on against expectations in an area not naturally sympathetic to Tories in both 1987 and 1992 but finally succumbed in 1997. She was known as an independent-minded, locally-focused backbencher with no obvious ministerial aspirations. In that position you need to hide the national brand and build your own.

[Merseymike]

Jun 14, 2024 9:17:09 GMT matureleft said:

Jun 14, 2024 9:09:10 GMT ricmk said:

I think she's a terrible MP and I hope she loses, really really badly.

But you've got to say that she's putting up a lot more fight than most of her colleagues. She's seen this coming from well before the election, ploughing an independent path and veering well off from the national campaign.
Reminds me (and she will hate the comparison) of Tim Farron at the 2019 GE who notably abandoned the national Lib Dem campaign and did his own thing. He knew what he was doing locally, he was clearly in tune with what people were saying and strong enough to make a major campaign swerve in the heat of battle. And of course, he won.

This may be an interesting result and I have a sneaky feeling she'll do better than some of her detractors think she will.

TLDR: carlton43 has a point

Although the two individuals aren't comparable the comparison of the response to circumstances is perhaps Elizabeth Peacock. She held on against expectations in an area not naturally sympathetic to Tories in both 1987 and 1992 but finally succumbed in 1997. She was known as an independent-minded, locally-focused backbencher with no obvious ministerial aspirations. In that position you need to hide the national brand and build your own.

Maybe. But then, Elizabeth Peacock had some right wing views, but others were not. For example, she was good about housing, and the voluntary sector.
Jenkyns does appear completely right wing.

[matureleft]

Jun 14, 2024 9:27:17 GMT Merseymike said:

Jun 14, 2024 9:17:09 GMT matureleft said:

Although the two individuals aren't comparable the comparison of the response to circumstances is perhaps Elizabeth Peacock. She held on against expectations in an area not naturally sympathetic to Tories in both 1987 and 1992 but finally succumbed in 1997. She was known as an independent-minded, locally-focused backbencher with no obvious ministerial aspirations. In that position you need to hide the national brand and build your own.

Maybe. But then, Elizabeth Peacock had some right wing views, but others were not. For example, she was good about housing, and the voluntary sector.
Jenkyns does appear completely right wing.

Yup. That's why I said that the individuals weren't comparable. However the wise response to being elected in a landslide (1983, 2019) in territory that isn't naturally Tory leaning is to hide the national brand, build your own local reputation and selectively distance yourself from your party (with the knowledge that may well make you unpromotable). 

Jenkyns may be doing it too late and picking the wrong angles but I can see what she's trying to do. And it can work. 

Labour MPs sometimes do something similar (and quite a few may have the chance to consider that after this election - there are likely to be quite a few :Labour MPs in places where there's only modest core Labour support). 

[Ron Swanson]

In 1997, Peacock went down by a smaller majority than most sitting Tory MPs in West Yorkshire as well.

She might as well have a go at doing it her own way, going with the ‘standing with Theresa May’ in 2017 would have seen her lose, instead she increased her majority.

I don’t think she is a particularly good MP and is basically a thug, but she is ‘straight talking’ (sometimes) and isn’t the worst fit for the seat, you’ll find an Andrea in most work places, pubs/clubs, and volunteer groups.

I know people think she’s thick and whilst she isn’t an intellectual, there is thought behind everything that she does, including the late night tweeting that reads as if it is written by someone half way through their second bottle of vino.

[right]

Andrea Jenkins in a spat with her Reform opponent:

order-order.com/2024/06/28/andrea-jenkyns-in-heated-spat-with-reform-candidate-over-stand-aside-claims/

[Ron Swanson]

If she lost by fewer votes than the Reform candidate got…