Keighley and Ilkley

[stb12]

Keighley and Ilkley

[YL]

Almanac profile

Candidates

Chris Adams (Lib Dem)
Dominic Atlas (Yorkshire Party)
John Grogan (Lab)
Andrew Judson (Reform UK)
Robbie Moore* (Con)
Vaz Shabir (Ind)
John Wood (Green)

[YL]

www.bradford.gov.uk/your-council/elections-and-voting/statement-of-persons-nominated-and-notice-of-poll/

7 candidates here, with the candidate previously listed as Workers Party now an Independent.

[Pete Whitehead]

What on earth happened here? I assume Asian politics are involved somehow..

[ibfc]

Not that much actually. The independent got slightly more votes than the majority but the swing was relatively low. Not really a case of winning due to split opposition.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 5, 2024 5:59:31 GMT ibfc said:

Not that much actually. The independent got slightly more votes than the majority but the swing was relatively low. Not really a case of winning due to split opposition.

Yes but by 'not much' happening, in the context of an election where the Conservatives lost half their vote share nationally, something happened here

[ibfc]

To clarify the ‘not much’ was in relation to Asian politics. I think whatever happened was mostly independent of that.

[Ports]

Given that Sky had also did its usual incorrect results earlier in the night (e.g. Lab Gain Carshalton) I wasn't ready to believe this one.

[heslingtonian]

This might not be the case but I wonder whether the public here slightly resented being offered up a twice defeated Labour MP and would have preferred a fresher candidate. Just a theory.

[hullenedge]

The Tories were ahead at the May locals. Possible Asian/Gaza effect in Keighley town. The 2019 result was a very modest gain. Robbie Moore's address was listed as 'Westmorland & Lonsdale' on the ballot. There was twittering about a comer-in but he has worked the seat since being elected.

As an aside Kris Hopkins would likely have held on in 2017 if he had spent more time campaigning in the constituency rather than helping out in Halifax.

[nugget]

I grew up in this constituency and it is where my parents still live. A result which caught me completely by surprise and a rather impressive one for Moore (he has told local media that the result was completely unexpected). Judging by the literature/activity I’ve seen in recent months and indeed since the 2019 election, the Tories seem to have definitely upped their ground campaign, and Moore appears to be a fairly diligent local MP.

A local factor which may or may not have had any impact- there is a lot of dissatisfaction here, particularly among the Tory leaning wards, with Bradford Council and Robbie Moore has run a fairly high profile (albeit futile in my opinion) campaign to remove this constituency from it. However, given the result in neighbouring Shipley which has been part of the same campaign, I would be weary about attributing that too much to the result.

I suppose a more plausible reason, as already pointed out, is the impact of Gaza in Keighley itself (the independent candidate got 2,000 votes with the Tory majority at 1,600 for instance).

As a quick aside, this constituency’s reputation as a very reliable bellwether has probably taken a hit at this election.

[greenhert]

Jul 6, 2024 8:55:41 GMT nugget said:

I grew up in this constituency and it is where my parents still live. A result which caught me completely by surprise and a rather impressive one for Moore (he has told local media that the result was completely unexpected). Judging by the literature/activity I’ve seen in recent months and indeed since the 2019 election, the Tories seem to have definitely upped their ground campaign, and Moore appears to be a fairly diligent local MP.

A local factor which may or may not have had any impact- there is a lot of dissatisfaction here, particularly among the Tory leaning wards, with Bradford Council and Robbie Moore has run a fairly high profile (albeit futile in my opinion) campaign to remove this constituency from it. However, given the result in neighbouring Shipley which has been part of the same campaign, I would be weary about attributing that too much to the result.

I suppose a more plausible reason, as already pointed out, is the impact of Gaza in Keighley itself (the independent candidate got 2,000 votes with the Tory majority at 1,600 for instance).

As a quick aside, this constituency’s reputation as a very reliable bellwether has probably taken a hit at this election.

There are very few reliable bellwethers left anyway. Northampton North kept that status but few others still have it.

[batman]

Dartford since 1964, and quite a lot since 1983

[Pete Whitehead]

Watford since 1974 and that is 50 years now so a pretty good innings. Probably several others in that category. Welwyn Hatfield has been a kind of bellwether in that it has, since it was created, voted for the party which won the popular vote in England.

[birkinabe]

Based on the precise results here, it seems to me that the Conservatives holding on (definitely the most surprising result of the night IMO) wouldn't have happened if not for, rather than both factors combined, either one of:

a) Labour losing votes to the aforementioned Independent candidate (and possibly the Green one as well, though based on which wards here they have local councillors in, this might not be important) over Gaza.

b) the Conservative vote being relatively sticky even in light of Reform standing, which I was expecting to be case given the general demography of the bits of this seat they are strongest in.

[bjornhattan]

Jul 8, 2024 13:50:09 GMT birkinabe said:

Based on the precise results here, it seems to me that the Conservatives holding on (definitely the most surprising result of the night for me IM0) wouldn't have happened if not for, rather than both factors combined, either one of:

a) Labour losing votes to the aforementioned Independent candidate (and possibly the Green one as well, though based on which wards here they have local councillors in, this might not be important) over Gaza.

b) the Conservative vote being relatively sticky even in light of Reform standing, which I was expecting to be case given the general demography of the bits of this seat they are strongest in.

I also wouldn't be shocked if Reform won a few Labour voters (or at least, voters who otherwise would have swung from the Conservatives to Labour). Their candidate was a town councillor for a part of Keighley which has generally been Labour, but has sometimes produced strong BNP or UKIP vote shares so clearly does have a latent right wing vote. With only 10% of the vote his performance wasn't all that good, but I imagine that vote disproportionately came from those heavily white and otherwise Labour inclined estates in the west of Keighley.

[nugget]

Apologies if already noted elsewhere but I also believe this might have been the Lib Dems’ worst result in the country, both in terms of number of votes and vote percentage.

Edit- Found a couple with a lower percentage of the vote in Tipton & Wednesbury and Ynys Mon, there might be others but certainly amongst the lowest though. Definitely not the lowest number of votes.

[The Bishop]

Its not impossible that for whatever reason Tories did better amongst Muslim voters here than average, and that is also very likely why they nearly held Peterborough.

[birkinabe]

Looking at the results here again, it might also be important that there was an above-average decrease in turnout.

Also, the result in Peterborough seems to be primarily, if not almost entirely, due to a relatively strong (8th best in the country) WPB performance. With that being said the Conservatives have done well in Keighley Central in recent years, though this strength has now largely faded away based on the last two local elections there.

[Deleted]

From what my mum said when she lived in Keighley, the activity of the local Labour Party especially in Keighley itself may have been a factor, especially in a low turnout election with the populist right doing well