Post by YL on Dec 9, 2023 17:48:18 GMT
The name is new, but the constituency is not: this is the old Keighley constituency with only an extremely minor boundary adjustment. The new name may not go down well with those who prefer their names short, and there may be a feeling that the motive of those who requested the change is partly snobbery, but it does accurately describe a constituency divided into two parts by the famous Ilkley Moor. The larger (in terms of electorate) of the two parts is in the valleys of the Aire and its tributary the Worth, and is dominated by the town of Keighley; the other part, to the north, is in the valley of the Wharfe and its largest town is Ilkley. The whole constituency is included in the City of Bradford Metropolitan District, something which is unpopular with some of its residents.
Historically Keighley and Ilkley have had different political preferences, and this is partly why the Keighley constituency has been a closely fought marginal for many years. It has existed on its current boundaries since 1983, and up to and including 2015 in every election it has been won by the party who won the most seats. In 2017 it broke this record when former Selby MP John Grogan narrowly won it for Labour. It was recaptured for the Conservatives by Robbie Moore in 2019 with a rather small swing, but then produced one of the oddest results of the 2024 election when Moore held on with only a tiny swing to Labour. It was arguably the only traditional Conservative/Labour marginal which the former party held in that election.
While the strangeness of the 2024 result makes it hard to be confident that the patterns then were the usual ones, Keighley itself is normally the most Labour part of the constituency. It is a Pennine mill town which has, especially in its centre, developed a high Asian Muslim population: several output areas in the town are over 70% Muslim and one is over 90%. As with other heavily Muslim parts of the Bradford council area, this can lead to unpredictable elections, and Keighley Central ward has voted for a mix of Labour, Conservative and Independent candidates over the years. Keighley East ward, on the other hand, is reasonably consistently Labour, while Keighley West, which has a whiter population, has usually voted Labour but the Conservatives won it in 2021 and UKIP in 2014. Most of the town is heavily deprived and has very working class demographics, though parts of the eastern and western fringes are less so.
As well as Keighley, the southern part of the constituency extends southwards into the Worth Valley. This is linked to Keighley by the Keighley & Worth Valley heritage railway, and includes the picturesque town of Haworth which is inescapably associated with the Brontë sisters and their literature and which frankly can feel like a tourist trap. The valley is surrounded by attractive Pennine moorland which separates it from the Calder valley around Hebden Bridge to the south. Politically the Worth Valley is worlds away from Hebden Bridge: it has voted Conservative, usually rather comfortably, since the current Bradford ward boundaries were introduced in 2004, except in that very first election in 2004 when a BNP candidate won the third seat. It is not an especially high status area; many demographic indicators are quite middling, and there is some deprivation in Haworth.
Across Ilkley Moor in Wharfedale, Ilkley is rather different. It is a middle class town, in an appealing location for commuters to Leeds, and has high levels of middle class employment and of graduates (it is the ward with the highest proportion of graduates in West Yorkshire, and the fifth highest in Yorkshire), and several of its Lower Super Output Areas are in the 10% least deprived in England. The eastern part of the town has the curious name of Ben Rhydding, suggesting a mountain which isn't sure whether it is Scottish or Welsh. The ward has usually voted Conservative, though one of its councillors went Independent and held her seat in both 2016 and 2021 and a strong challenge from the Green Party finally paid off in 2024, defeating that Independent councillor.
There is one more ward, Craven, nestling in the north-west corner of West Yorkshire. It spans the Airedale/Wharfedale divide, including Addingham on the Wharfedale side, which like the rest of that side of the constituency has middle class demographics, though not quite as well educated as Ilkley. On the Airedale side it includes Steeton and Silsden, which are demographically more like the Worth Valley. This ward, like Ilkley, is historically a Conservative stronghold except when its councillors have left the party and stood as Independents. Also like Ilkley, there has recently been a challenge from the Green Party; this succeeded before the one in Ilkley, in 2022, and the Greens now have all three seats here.
Overall the constituency tends not to stand out on demographic indicators across the constituency as a whole, often because Keighley town and the Wharfedale areas are at different ends of the scale. However it is low on socially rented housing, and the high Asian population in Keighley town does show up as high figures in the constituency as a whole: it is 15.7% Muslim, and Labour's difficulties in Muslim communities in 2024 are presumably part of the explanation for their surprising failure to win the seat. But overall this is a polarised constituency which averages out as fairly middle of the road, as befits its long standing marginal status.
2019 result:
Con 25298 (48.1%)
Lab 23080 (43.9%)
Lib Dem 2573 (4.9%)
Brexit Party 850 (1.6%)
Others 799 (1.5%)
Con majority 2218 (4.2%)
2024 result:
Robbie Moore (Con) 18589 (40.2%)
John Grogan (Lab) 16964 (36.7%)
Andrew Judson (Reform UK) 4782 (10.4%)
John Wood (Green) 2447 (5.3%)
Vaz Shabir (Ind) 2036 (4.4%)
Chris Adams (Lib Dem) 970 (2.1%)
Dominic Atlas (Yorkshire Party) 398 (0.9%)
Historically Keighley and Ilkley have had different political preferences, and this is partly why the Keighley constituency has been a closely fought marginal for many years. It has existed on its current boundaries since 1983, and up to and including 2015 in every election it has been won by the party who won the most seats. In 2017 it broke this record when former Selby MP John Grogan narrowly won it for Labour. It was recaptured for the Conservatives by Robbie Moore in 2019 with a rather small swing, but then produced one of the oddest results of the 2024 election when Moore held on with only a tiny swing to Labour. It was arguably the only traditional Conservative/Labour marginal which the former party held in that election.
While the strangeness of the 2024 result makes it hard to be confident that the patterns then were the usual ones, Keighley itself is normally the most Labour part of the constituency. It is a Pennine mill town which has, especially in its centre, developed a high Asian Muslim population: several output areas in the town are over 70% Muslim and one is over 90%. As with other heavily Muslim parts of the Bradford council area, this can lead to unpredictable elections, and Keighley Central ward has voted for a mix of Labour, Conservative and Independent candidates over the years. Keighley East ward, on the other hand, is reasonably consistently Labour, while Keighley West, which has a whiter population, has usually voted Labour but the Conservatives won it in 2021 and UKIP in 2014. Most of the town is heavily deprived and has very working class demographics, though parts of the eastern and western fringes are less so.
As well as Keighley, the southern part of the constituency extends southwards into the Worth Valley. This is linked to Keighley by the Keighley & Worth Valley heritage railway, and includes the picturesque town of Haworth which is inescapably associated with the Brontë sisters and their literature and which frankly can feel like a tourist trap. The valley is surrounded by attractive Pennine moorland which separates it from the Calder valley around Hebden Bridge to the south. Politically the Worth Valley is worlds away from Hebden Bridge: it has voted Conservative, usually rather comfortably, since the current Bradford ward boundaries were introduced in 2004, except in that very first election in 2004 when a BNP candidate won the third seat. It is not an especially high status area; many demographic indicators are quite middling, and there is some deprivation in Haworth.
Across Ilkley Moor in Wharfedale, Ilkley is rather different. It is a middle class town, in an appealing location for commuters to Leeds, and has high levels of middle class employment and of graduates (it is the ward with the highest proportion of graduates in West Yorkshire, and the fifth highest in Yorkshire), and several of its Lower Super Output Areas are in the 10% least deprived in England. The eastern part of the town has the curious name of Ben Rhydding, suggesting a mountain which isn't sure whether it is Scottish or Welsh. The ward has usually voted Conservative, though one of its councillors went Independent and held her seat in both 2016 and 2021 and a strong challenge from the Green Party finally paid off in 2024, defeating that Independent councillor.
There is one more ward, Craven, nestling in the north-west corner of West Yorkshire. It spans the Airedale/Wharfedale divide, including Addingham on the Wharfedale side, which like the rest of that side of the constituency has middle class demographics, though not quite as well educated as Ilkley. On the Airedale side it includes Steeton and Silsden, which are demographically more like the Worth Valley. This ward, like Ilkley, is historically a Conservative stronghold except when its councillors have left the party and stood as Independents. Also like Ilkley, there has recently been a challenge from the Green Party; this succeeded before the one in Ilkley, in 2022, and the Greens now have all three seats here.
Overall the constituency tends not to stand out on demographic indicators across the constituency as a whole, often because Keighley town and the Wharfedale areas are at different ends of the scale. However it is low on socially rented housing, and the high Asian population in Keighley town does show up as high figures in the constituency as a whole: it is 15.7% Muslim, and Labour's difficulties in Muslim communities in 2024 are presumably part of the explanation for their surprising failure to win the seat. But overall this is a polarised constituency which averages out as fairly middle of the road, as befits its long standing marginal status.
2019 result:
Con 25298 (48.1%)
Lab 23080 (43.9%)
Lib Dem 2573 (4.9%)
Brexit Party 850 (1.6%)
Others 799 (1.5%)
Con majority 2218 (4.2%)
2024 result:
Robbie Moore (Con) 18589 (40.2%)
John Grogan (Lab) 16964 (36.7%)
Andrew Judson (Reform UK) 4782 (10.4%)
John Wood (Green) 2447 (5.3%)
Vaz Shabir (Ind) 2036 (4.4%)
Chris Adams (Lib Dem) 970 (2.1%)
Dominic Atlas (Yorkshire Party) 398 (0.9%)
