stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,398 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 1:14:38 GMT
Barnsley North
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Mar 14, 2024 7:24:45 GMT
Almanac profileCandidatesPenny Baker (Lib Dem) Tony Devoy (Yorkshire Party) Neil Fisher (Ind) Tom Heyes (Green) Dan Jarvis* (Lab) Tamas Kovacz (Con) Robert Lomas (Reform UK) Janus Polenceusz (Eng Dem)
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Post by markgoodair on Apr 23, 2024 8:43:32 GMT
An article in this weeks Economist puts Barnsley North as the most likely seat for a Reform gain.
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 747
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Post by Clark on Apr 23, 2024 12:06:58 GMT
I'll go something like:
LAB - 60%
REF - 20%
CON - 15%
LIB - 5%
If the Greens stand, give or take a few more percent either way.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,046
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Post by nyx on Apr 23, 2024 12:26:42 GMT
Yeah, I would say somewhere like Clacton is the most likely Reform gain.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 23, 2024 12:36:37 GMT
An article in this weeks Economist puts Barnsley North as the most likely seat for a Reform gain. Yes, because they are using 2019 BxP votes and little else. Apart from current Reform support (inasmuch as it is a real phenomenon as opposed to just a polling artefact) not mapping that well onto Brexit Party strength at all, the latter didn't even stand in half the country at the last GE! |
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Post by markgoodair on Apr 23, 2024 13:09:22 GMT
I'll go something like: LAB - 60% REF - 20% CON - 15% LIB - 5% If the Greens stand, give or take a few more percent either way. The Economist had Reform on 30% here. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 23, 2024 13:28:41 GMT
An article in this weeks Economist puts Barnsley North as the most likely seat for a Reform gain. Yes, because they are using 2019 BxP votes and little else. Apart from current Reform support (inasmuch as it is a real phenomenon as opposed to just a polling artefact) not mapping that well onto Brexit Party strength at all, the latter didn't even stand in half the country at the last GE! Yes, it's a statistical artefact rather than anything meaningful. It's just not going to be possible to simply project from the last GE on to the forthcoming one for any party... |
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Post by swingometer on Apr 23, 2024 14:17:15 GMT
Yes, because they are using 2019 BxP votes and little else. Apart from current Reform support (inasmuch as it is a real phenomenon as opposed to just a polling artefact) not mapping that well onto Brexit Party strength at all, the latter didn't even stand in half the country at the last GE! Yes, it's a statistical artefact rather than anything meaningful. It's just not going to be possible to simply project from the last GE on to the forthcoming one for any party... I’ve always thought Giles Watling was a popular local MP being an actor and that |
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Post by batman on Apr 23, 2024 15:01:14 GMT
He probably is but he is still likelier to lose than Labour are to lose Barnsley North. In all likelihood neither will happen. I'd have thought their best chance is in Ashfield where the non-Tory vote will be much more split and they have an actual incumbent. Even there however I don't think they will win
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 23, 2024 15:07:43 GMT
All indications at present are that their vote is likely to be fairly evenly distributed, which tends not to be rewarded by FPTP.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,398
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Post by stb12 on Apr 23, 2024 15:21:37 GMT
All indications at present are that their vote is likely to be fairly evenly distributed, which tends not to be rewarded by FPTP. UKIP know this well |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,913
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 23, 2024 15:31:12 GMT
He probably is but he is still likelier to lose than Labour are to lose Barnsley North. In all likelihood neither will happen. I'd have thought their best chance is in Ashfield where the non-Tory vote will be much more split and they have an actual incumbent. Even there however I don't think they will win Although of all the seats mentioned, Ashfield is probably the one where they're most likely to come 4th... |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 23, 2024 21:02:19 GMT
Yes, it's a statistical artefact rather than anything meaningful. It's just not going to be possible to simply project from the last GE on to the forthcoming one for any party... I’ve always thought Giles Watling was a popular local MP being an actor and that I'm unconvinced that a minor role in a sitcom that aired 35 years ago necessarily gives local popularity. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 23, 2024 21:28:01 GMT
I’ve always thought Giles Watling was a popular local MP being an actor and that I'm unconvinced that a minor role in a sitcom that aired 35 years ago necessarily gives local popularity. He had a very long career as an actor. He's in most episodes of "Gideon's Way" (an ITC police procedural made in 1964-65) playing the school age son of the central character. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,398
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Post by stb12 on Apr 23, 2024 21:37:03 GMT
He did lose twice to UKIP before getting elected, although Carswell seems to have clearly had his own personal popularity so maybe not a reflection on Watling
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,085
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Post by Sg1 on Apr 23, 2024 23:22:18 GMT
I’ve always thought Giles Watling was a popular local MP being an actor and that I'm unconvinced that a minor role in a sitcom that aired 35 years ago necessarily gives local popularity. You might just say that you don't believe it. Wait, wrong sitcom. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jun 7, 2024 15:57:42 GMT
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jun 15, 2024 8:09:13 GMT
Does the Reform UK candidate in this alleged target seat still have the party's support, and if so why?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2024 8:25:18 GMT
Does the Reform UK candidate in this alleged target seat still have the party's support, and if so why? That is pretty crude stuff there. On current polling, this grifter may have a chance of winning, god forbid. |
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