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Post by carlton43 on Jun 16, 2024 10:50:30 GMT
I guess for the people shilling for Barnsley Labour, how many of you thought that the Brexit Party would get as close as they did here, or that Democrats & Veterans would win seats in the 2019 locals? Yes, Labour are favoured, but if there was anywhere where Labour losing 4% of 2019 voters to Reform would be most pronounced, it'd be Barnsley or Rotherham, and maybe Hartlepool. Also, Labour being up only 6% on the 2019 UK-wide result is no great shakes, and it's only Farage's gargantuan ego that distorts such a result into a 'super majority' (ugh, Godforsaken Americanism) nationwide. Source: family lived in the area for 15 years before retiring to Whitby. We do actually have some polling evidence supporting the idea that Labour have no great cause for concern about seats like this this time round (maybe not next time): there was a constituency poll in Hartlepool which showed Labour way ahead, and for example the YouGov MRP had Labour on nearly 50% and Reform just over 20%. But the main thing I want to draw attention to is the Reform candidate’s views, which based on reported comments seem to well beyond merely not being “woke”. Those remarks have a lot of traction in this Forum demographic, but also in parts of the south Yorkshire demographic, but in a different directions. You identify such people as oddities, outliers and 'obviously' wrong-uns! That is not all all how a large number of people view them. |
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binky
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by binky on Jun 19, 2024 16:17:28 GMT
YouGov MRP has Reform in striking distance here, for what it's worth.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 19, 2024 16:23:12 GMT
With a combined LibDem and Green vote of 17%? Absolutely risible.
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 29, 2024 15:36:19 GMT
YouGov MRP has Reform in striking distance here, for what it's worth. Turns out that the Reform UK LTD candidate is a racist . No surprise there then . |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jun 29, 2024 22:12:01 GMT
YouGov MRP has Reform in striking distance here, for what it's worth. Turns out that the Reform UK LTD candidate is a racist . No surprise there then . This has been in the public domain for some time, as I’d already pointed out upthread. But Reform only acted when the media properly picked up on it. It’s also a rather half-hearted disendorsement; according to the Guardian a Reform spokesperson said people should still vote for the candidates if they wanted to register support for the party. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 22:13:00 GMT
YouGov MRP has Reform in striking distance here, for what it's worth. Turns out that the Reform UK LTD candidate is a racist . No surprise there then . We are assuming there are no racists in this constituency? Why? |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jun 30, 2024 6:41:13 GMT
Turns out that the Reform UK LTD candidate is a racist . No surprise there then . We are assuming there are no racists in this constituency? Why? ? Nobody is assuming that. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2024 8:15:13 GMT
We are assuming there are no racists in this constituency? Why? ? Nobody is assuming that. I thought Mark was implying it might harm the candidate here whereas the opposite might be true. I don't know Barnsley North (I only know Penistone). |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 30, 2024 12:10:05 GMT
There are racists in every seat - even Bristol Central.
But it is equally true that overt, in your face racism (in the style of the BNP back in the day) tends to put off voters.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jul 5, 2024 0:59:34 GMT
Some jitters reported earlier but:
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jul 5, 2024 1:02:51 GMT
Indeed, this has been declared and is a comfortable Labour hold.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,913
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 5, 2024 1:03:23 GMT
Reform vote actually fractionally down here
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Post by riccimarsh on Jul 5, 2024 1:04:23 GMT
Indeed, this has been declared and is a comfortable Labour hold. Exit Poll clearly wrong (in Barnsley). |
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