The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 15, 2024 12:32:07 GMT
That is pretty crude stuff there. On current polling, this grifter may have a chance of winning, god forbid. On *current* polling, he has absolutely no such thing. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 15, 2024 12:37:29 GMT
Does the Reform UK candidate in this alleged target seat still have the party's support, and if so why? That is pretty crude stuff there. On current polling, this grifter may have a chance of winning, god forbid. Why is he 'a grifter'? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2024 12:49:32 GMT
Does the Reform UK candidate in this alleged target seat still have the party's support, and if so why? That is pretty crude stuff there. On current polling, this grifter may have a chance of winning, god forbid. Is there any seat that you think Reform are going to lose? Are you expecting them to win a majority government? Is Nigel Farage going to be our next prime minister? |
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 606 
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Post by Ports on Jun 15, 2024 14:07:17 GMT
There are lots of seats where UKIP in 2015 came close where Reform might actually do just as well but will be further away this time as the polls are more lopsided. This includes 'red wall' ones like in South Yorkshire where they would've won by overtaking Labour as well as ones where they were close and could come up the middle like in Thurrock. So even if Reform continue to improve I don't think they'd come anywhere near this one.
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 15, 2024 15:36:45 GMT
Does the Reform UK candidate in this alleged target seat still have the party's support, and if so why? Sounds like a good bloke who will go down well with the demographic. Not all white English have been converted to full on woke. Another mindless attempt to make Reform sound respectable. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 15, 2024 15:52:08 GMT
Sounds like a good bloke who will go down well with the demographic. Not all white English have been converted to full on woke. Another mindless attempt to make Reform sound respectable. That does encapsulate the present me : Overtly concerned with respectability and completely mindless. All my posts prove it. What do your's prove? |
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Post by batman on Jun 15, 2024 16:16:31 GMT
carlton! a superfluous apostrophe on top of a highly disagreeable previous comment!
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 15, 2024 16:21:56 GMT
carlton! a superfluous apostrophe on top of a highly disagreeable previous comment! If there's hasn't ever been a band called the superfluous apostrophes, there should have been! |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 15, 2024 16:30:05 GMT
I'm unconvinced that a minor role in a sitcom that aired 35 years ago necessarily gives local popularity. He had a very long career as an actor. He's in most episodes of "Gideon's Way" (an ITC police procedural made in 1964-65) playing the school age son of the central character. I believe one episode involved the threat of a populist, right-wing politician ... |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 15, 2024 16:57:25 GMT
He had a very long career as an actor. He's in most episodes of "Gideon's Way" (an ITC police procedural made in 1964-65) playing the school age son of the central character. I believe one episode involved the threat of a populist, right-wing politician ... "The 'V' Men" (TX 25 March 1965) |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 15, 2024 17:06:44 GMT
I believe one episode involved the threat of a populist, right-wing politician ... "The 'V' Men" (TX 25 March 1965) And here it is :
And this episode (and presumably others) features the most recent MP for Clacton, then thirteen, as Gideon's son 
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2024 21:33:25 GMT
Does the Reform UK candidate in this alleged target seat still have the party's support, and if so why? Is he saying thee things to try and win over a certain section of the electorate? What's the agenda here? |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 15, 2024 21:52:52 GMT
carlton! a superfluous apostrophe on top of a highly disagreeable previous comment! Ah! Dear chap. What can I say? One can promote the man out of greengrocery but never steam out the taint of his apostrophe! No excuses. Post deleted. I must not allow the ill winds and noxious views from Buenos Aires to impair my judgment. I have been quite undone by a South American 'Ossett syndrome'. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 8:08:17 GMT
I guess for the people shilling for Barnsley Labour, how many of you thought that the Brexit Party would get as close as they did here, or that Democrats & Veterans would win seats in the 2019 locals? Yes, Labour are favoured, but if there was anywhere where Labour losing 4% of 2019 voters to Reform would be most pronounced, it'd be Barnsley or Rotherham, and maybe Hartlepool. Also, Labour being up only 6% on the 2019 UK-wide result is no great shakes, and it's only Farage's gargantuan ego that distorts such a result into a 'super majority' (ugh, Godforsaken Americanism) nationwide. Source: family lived in the area for 15 years before retiring to Whitby.
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Post by batman on Jun 16, 2024 9:21:18 GMT
shilling is an unnecessarily nasty word. There surely must be a nicer one that we could use. I have been following the polls closely since I rejoined the Labour Party, especially since my party regained the lead in latish 2021. Time and time again it has been shown by polling that Labour's surge is stronger in some areas than others. Amongst the areas where Labour's surge has been strongest of all has been the former coalfield, although there are some exceptions to that. It is hardly unreasonable to be confident that Labour will have little or no difficulty in holding on to its ex-coalfield seats that were held in 2019. Labour's weaker areas in terms of swing seem likely to be London, Wales & Scotland, but the weakness is a relative one.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,069
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Post by jamie on Jun 16, 2024 9:23:48 GMT
I guess for the people shilling for Barnsley Labour, how many of you thought that the Brexit Party would get as close as they did here, or that Democrats & Veterans would win seats in the 2019 locals? Yes, Labour are favoured, but if there was anywhere where Labour losing 4% of 2019 voters to Reform would be most pronounced, it'd be Barnsley or Rotherham, and maybe Hartlepool. Also, Labour being up only 6% on the 2019 UK-wide result is no great shakes, and it's only Farage's gargantuan ego that distorts such a result into a 'super majority' (ugh, Godforsaken Americanism) nationwide. Source: family lived in the area for 15 years before retiring to Whitby. I imagine the small number of 2019 Labour to Reform voters will be disproportionately concentrated in seats Reform did not stand in back in 2019 I.e. Conservative held seats. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 9:30:10 GMT
I guess for the people shilling for Barnsley Labour, how many of you thought that the Brexit Party would get as close as they did here, or that Democrats & Veterans would win seats in the 2019 locals? Yes, Labour are favoured, but if there was anywhere where Labour losing 4% of 2019 voters to Reform would be most pronounced, it'd be Barnsley or Rotherham, and maybe Hartlepool. Also, Labour being up only 6% on the 2019 UK-wide result is no great shakes, and it's only Farage's gargantuan ego that distorts such a result into a 'super majority' (ugh, Godforsaken Americanism) nationwide. Source: family lived in the area for 15 years before retiring to Whitby. I imagine the small number of 2019 Labour to Reform voters will be disproportionately concentrated in seats Reform did not stand in back in 2019 I.e. Conservative held seats. I agree. North Kent and South Essex seem better bets for Corbyn --> Farage Labour to Reform switchers. Populists who are left-wing on economics? Idk. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jun 16, 2024 9:38:30 GMT
I guess for the people shilling for Barnsley Labour, how many of you thought that the Brexit Party would get as close as they did here, or that Democrats & Veterans would win seats in the 2019 locals? Yes, Labour are favoured, but if there was anywhere where Labour losing 4% of 2019 voters to Reform would be most pronounced, it'd be Barnsley or Rotherham, and maybe Hartlepool. Also, Labour being up only 6% on the 2019 UK-wide result is no great shakes, and it's only Farage's gargantuan ego that distorts such a result into a 'super majority' (ugh, Godforsaken Americanism) nationwide. Source: family lived in the area for 15 years before retiring to Whitby. We do actually have some polling evidence supporting the idea that Labour have no great cause for concern about seats like this this time round (maybe not next time): there was a constituency poll in Hartlepool which showed Labour way ahead, and for example the YouGov MRP had Labour on nearly 50% and Reform just over 20%. But the main thing I want to draw attention to is the Reform candidate’s views, which based on reported comments seem to well beyond merely not being “woke”. |
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Post by islington on Jun 16, 2024 9:38:55 GMT
I imagine the small number of 2019 Labour to Reform voters will be disproportionately concentrated in seats Reform did not stand in back in 2019 I.e. Conservative held seats. I agree. North Kent and South Essex seem better bets for Corbyn --> Farage Labour to Reform switchers. Populists who are left-wing on economics? Idk. I suggest it's simpler than that. If you think the system is failing you and people like you, and are angry about it, then you will vote for whoever seems likeliest to disrupt it. Corbyn or Farage, it doesn't matter. Conventional 'left' or 'right' labels aren't relevant here. |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 16, 2024 9:51:47 GMT
I agree. North Kent and South Essex seem better bets for Corbyn --> Farage Labour to Reform switchers. Populists who are left-wing on economics? Idk. I suggest it's simpler than that. If you think the system is failing you and people like you, and are angry about it, then you will vote for whoever seems likeliest to disrupt it. Corbyn or Farage, it doesn't matter. Conventional 'left' or 'right' labels aren't relevant here. Yup. We’ve seen interviews with people saying they’ll vote Labour or Reform. Such a choice might seem ludicrous to many here but such is the revulsion to this government and its party you’re going to get some seemingly odd choices. I was staggered (initially) when I corresponded with some people who said they’d voted Labour in 1997. They held views that might have made Attila the Hun flinch. Yet they’d voted Labour, even with a quite high profile Referendum option available. The Tory problems are many but their big strategic problem is that they’ve put off segments of even their core vote so traditional ideas of what the floor of Tory support is appear not to apply. |
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