|
|
Post by batman on Aug 19, 2024 19:52:33 GMT
yes, absolutely there are, not least Hamble itself, but also Botley, Hedge End & Bursledon.
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
Member is Online
|
Post by cogload on Aug 19, 2024 20:21:49 GMT
On Blue-sky; Matthew Green has indicated he might have another go next time round...
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
Member is Online
|
Post by YL on Aug 20, 2024 7:40:45 GMT
What I think is a little unusual about Hereford is that it is the only constituency in England which the Lib Dems won in all of 1997, 2001 and 2005 but whose successor seat voted Conservative in 2024. (Even if you allow constituencies which voted Lib Dem in at least one of those elections, you don't get so many more: Romsey, Solihull, Torridge & West Devon, this seat's predecessor Ludlow, and I suppose the Isle of Wight should count.) Most of the Tory-facing constituencies which the Lib Dems were winning in that period went back to the Lib Dems, or if not went Labour. On the question of tactical voting websites, I'm sure a few people do look at them, but I doubt it would actually have been enough to be decisive, especially as I assume that in practice it was obvious on the ground that the advice in this constituency was wrong. (It was pretty obvious to me, and I wasn't on the ground there.) The Labour percentage share was actually the same (13.4%) to one decimal place as it was when Matthew Green won Ludlow in 2001. Are there not parts of the new Hamble Valley seat which were in the Eastleigh constituency 1997-2005? Yes, indeed quite a lot of it was. I intended a narrow meaning of "successor seat" there which would just have meant Eastleigh in that instance, though in fact there seem to be relatively few areas which were in consistently Lib Dem constituencies under the 1997-2010 boundaries but which are now in Tory seats. As you say, part of that version of Eastleigh is now in Hamble Valley, as is part of 1997-2010 Winchester. A small part of North Devon went into Central Devon and part of Colchester is now in Harwich & North Essex. Apart from Hereford that seems to be it in England and Wales; the Scottish boundaries changed in 2005 of course but there are clearly areas which should count there. |
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Aug 20, 2024 7:46:14 GMT
This has been discussed before. Bob Seely made the choice he did because he lives in the West constituency and probably for no other unrelated reason. The extent of the divergence however was a little unexpected; however, Labour are known to have strength in Newport & Cowes and much less so anywhere in the East constituency, although they probably did relatively well in Ryde & Sandown. The vigorous if rather OTT campaign by Vix Lowthion may have at least slightly contributed to the divergence - and I strongly suspect that Labour worked West and not East. Apologies - I missed the previous discussion. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2024 10:03:12 GMT
If the next election is in 2029, then an 18 year old who voted for Matthew Green the last time he was elected will be 46. He is clearly quite a good campaigner and prior experience in parliament is a plus, but I suspect memories of his time as the local MP are rather thin.
|
|
