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Post by batman on Jun 21, 2024 8:14:10 GMT
It's interesting that the collective wisdom of the forum has this as a Lib Dem gain whilst it's one of the oy 20 seats that none of the MRPs have the Tories losing. this forum's collective wisdom is a better predictor, IMHO. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 8:25:57 GMT
It's interesting that the collective wisdom of the forum has this as a Lib Dem gain whilst it's one of the oy 20 seats that none of the MRPs have the Tories losing. The relevant factors of a former MP for broadly the same constituency standing, and the impact of the by-election in the neighbouring constituency, are something MRPs can't really understand whilst humans can (personally I think people may be overestimating the impact of these factors, but still). |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 21, 2024 10:04:23 GMT
I'm very deliberately not making a prediction, but the Conservative candidate being a chicken-runner had gone down very badly.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 21, 2024 11:04:27 GMT
I'm very deliberately not making a prediction, but the Conservative candidate being a chicken-runner had gone down very badly. I‘m shocked that they‘ve made the same mistake again. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 21, 2024 11:10:48 GMT
I'm very deliberately not making a prediction, but the Conservative candidate being a chicken-runner had gone down very badly. Beyond people with a significant internet in politics like here how much difference does that tend to really make? It’s not like Stuart Anderson is a high profile national figure either |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jun 21, 2024 11:11:24 GMT
I'm very deliberately not making a prediction, but the Conservative candidate being a chicken-runner had gone down very badly. The association with Wolverhampton probably won't hurt him too much in and around Bridgnorth but further west is a very different matter. |
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Post by monksfield on Jun 29, 2024 16:22:08 GMT
Various anecdata from the scene..
I’ve been out and about in the western half of the constituency this week. Some notes.
Ran into the Labour candidate in Church Stretton this morning. In contrast to previous elections Labour have run a bit of a campaign this time. They have the most stakeboards in Broseley, but also saw signs in Much Wenlock and Bishops Castle.
Generally there are more Lib Dem boards than any others. Most villages have at least one prominently sited board (e.g Diddlebury, Munslow, Lydbury North, Longville etc) and the bigger towns have quite a few - Broseley, Ludlow, Church Stretton, Bishops Castle etc.
There are quite a few Tory Boards, many in fields but a fair few associated with properties. Maybe a third of the Lib Dem total.
I’ve noted a handful of RefUK, one in Lydbury North, one in Corfton and a couple elsewhere.
And one Green one - in Lydbury North!
My sense is that Labour trying may be a spoiler for the LibDems. The opposition vote could split and whilst the Lib Dems will almost certainly beat Labour convincingly for second, Labour may do enough for the Tories to keep the seat. I always remember Matthew Green saying he knew he’d got it in 2001 when the Broseley box was opened. I don’t think that’ll happen this time the same way, but then again the Tories may not get 40%. How much of their vote goes to RefUK is the big imponderable.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jul 2, 2024 14:36:00 GMT
Rattlers!
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 2, 2024 14:44:15 GMT
Traditionally pronounced "Ratchup", I believe. |
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Post by salopian on Jul 3, 2024 10:02:00 GMT
Traditionally pronounced "Ratchup", I believe. Although the vast majority of the actual locals pronounce it Ratlinghope nowadays. So oddly the widely-known supposedly locals pronunciation of 'Ratchup' seems to have become what people not from there say more than the residents. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 3, 2024 11:37:49 GMT
Cricket/politics trivia note.
Dillon Pennington, new England squad fast bowler, played his first adult match for a Shropshire club (Much Wenlock CC?).
His captain on that day?
The Liberal Democrat candidate.
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iang
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Post by iang on Jul 3, 2024 13:09:49 GMT
Yes would be Much Wenlock - but Matthew isn't the Lib Dem candidate who has scored the most runs in recent weeks (last weekend anyway)
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Post by monksfield on Jul 5, 2024 8:04:16 GMT
My sense is that Labour trying may be a spoiler for the LibDems. The opposition vote could split and whilst the Lib Dems will almost certainly beat Labour convincingly for second, Labour may do enough for the Tories to keep the seat. I always remember Matthew Green saying he knew he’d got it in 2001 when the Broseley box was opened. I don’t think that’ll happen this time the same way, but then again the Tories may not get 40%. How much of their vote goes to RefUK is the big imponderable. I got this spot on. So it came to pass. |
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binky
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Post by binky on Jul 9, 2024 14:37:59 GMT
Matthew Green has said on Facebook he is "inclined to fight again." Perhaps a go for Shropshire Council next year?
I would be shocked if he could win in 2029, but this seems like one of a few logical Liberal targets left in an election where they will mostly be on the defence.
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Post by sirnorfolkpassmore on Jul 9, 2024 17:01:36 GMT
Matthew Green has said on Facebook he is "inclined to fight again." Perhaps a go for Shropshire Council next year? I would be shocked if he could win in 2029, but this seems like one of a few logical Liberal targets left in an election where they will mostly be on the defence. It's incredibly early to say they'd be mostly on the defence. They made some gains from the Conservatives in all three elections after the 1997 landslide (2001, 2005 and 2010) albeit also with some losses. There are plenty of places where they face a Tory incumbent with quite a low vote share, and room to squeeze. Meanwhile, the Conservative civil war has a while yet to run. Maybe the Lib Dems will be on the defensive against the Tories in 2028/29. But there seems to be an unrealistic level of confidence going around that he Tories will bounce back from this quite swiftly - or that they won't do so in a way that leans right and doesn't leaves the blue wall further exposed. That's certainly not my working assumption. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 11, 2024 23:13:32 GMT
Matthew Green has said on Facebook he is "inclined to fight again." Perhaps a go for Shropshire Council next year? I would be shocked if he could win in 2029, but this seems like one of a few logical Liberal targets left in an election where they will mostly be on the defence. It's incredibly early to say they'd be mostly on the defence. They made some gains from the Conservatives in all three elections after the 1997 landslide (2001, 2005 and 2010) albeit also with some losses. There are plenty of places where they face a Tory incumbent with quite a low vote share, and room to squeeze. Meanwhile, the Conservative civil war has a while yet to run. Maybe the Lib Dems will be on the defensive against the Tories in 2028/29. But there seems to be an unrealistic level of confidence going around that he Tories will bounce back from this quite swiftly - or that they won't do so in a way that leans right and doesn't leaves the blue wall further exposed. That's certainly not my working assumption. In 2001, they gained eight seats almost all from the Conservatives - Chesterfield was one exception - snd lost two, i.e. Taunton and the Isle of Wight. In both cases it was allegedly down to policy positions the individual incumbents took rather than voters turning against the party. In Taunton Jackie Ballard lost by 235 votes and her strong anti-fox hunting views were said to have made the difference between winning and losing. In the case of Dr Peter Brand apparently his support for euthanasia was not exactly a vote winner on the IOW although thd scale of his defeat suggests other factors too. In any event, at the same time they were picking up seats like Ludlow, Mid Dorset & North Poole and North Norfolk |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2024 5:08:11 GMT
It's incredibly early to say they'd be mostly on the defence. They made some gains from the Conservatives in all three elections after the 1997 landslide (2001, 2005 and 2010) albeit also with some losses. There are plenty of places where they face a Tory incumbent with quite a low vote share, and room to squeeze. Meanwhile, the Conservative civil war has a while yet to run. Maybe the Lib Dems will be on the defensive against the Tories in 2028/29. But there seems to be an unrealistic level of confidence going around that he Tories will bounce back from this quite swiftly - or that they won't do so in a way that leans right and doesn't leaves the blue wall further exposed. That's certainly not my working assumption. In 2001, they gained eight seats almost all from the Conservatives - Chesterfield was one exception - snd lost two, i.e. Taunton and the Isle of Wight. In both cases it was allegedly down to policy positions the individual incumbents took rather than voters turning against the party. In Taunton Jackie Ballard lost by 235 votes and her strong anti-fox hunting views were said to have made the difference between winning and losing. In the case of Dr Peter Brand apparently his support for euthanasia was not exactly a vote winner on the IOW although thd scale of his defeat suggests other factors too. In any event, at the same time they were picking up seats like Ludlow, Mid Dorset & North Poole and North Norfolk Things have certainly changed in 23 years, but those two issues strike me as ones where nowadays there is a politician/pundit received wisdom that they're vote-losing policies (for fox-hunting specifically in the SW), when that really isn't the case. |
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Post by tonyhil on Jul 12, 2024 5:39:55 GMT
I think that in Jackie Ballard's case it was more about stag hunting than fox hunting. She was quite an abrasive character and could probably have saved her seat had expressed her views in a slightly less forthright manner, but she also had the Countryside Alliance (at that time a pressure group with massive support) campaigning against her.
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jul 12, 2024 6:37:28 GMT
It's maybe significant that Taunton was won back in 2005, but IOW was gone for good
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Post by noorderling on Jul 12, 2024 7:49:03 GMT
In 2001, they gained eight seats almost all from the Conservatives - Chesterfield was one exception - snd lost two, i.e. Taunton and the Isle of Wight. In both cases it was allegedly down to policy positions the individual incumbents took rather than voters turning against the party. In Taunton Jackie Ballard lost by 235 votes and her strong anti-fox hunting views were said to have made the difference between winning and losing. In the case of Dr Peter Brand apparently his support for euthanasia was not exactly a vote winner on the IOW although thd scale of his defeat suggests other factors too. In any event, at the same time they were picking up seats like Ludlow, Mid Dorset & North Poole and North Norfolk Things have certainly changed in 23 years, but those two issues strike me as ones where nowadays there is a politician/pundit received wisdom that they're vote-losing policies (for fox-hunting specifically in the SW), when that really isn't the case. To all the people confidently predicting what is going to happen in 5 years time: just little over three years ago Boris Johnson won a massive victory in the local elections and the talk was how he would be PM for years to come. |
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