iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jul 12, 2024 8:12:49 GMT
After 1997, in 2001 / 2005, the Lib Dems made a net gain of three from the Conservatives, 7 gains and four losses, with three seats flipping back and forth. 2010 saw more of a Tory recovery, but even so, doesn't show the Conservatives will automatically recover all their seats
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 16, 2024 0:25:08 GMT
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Aug 16, 2024 1:00:42 GMT
I'd say South Shropshire is probably the likeliest Lib Dem gain at the next general election- even in the event of the overall picture ending up poor with them losing seats overall. It just has everything going for it- good local candidate who's the former MP (Matthew Green will probably stand again), the party overall doing well in Shropshire with Helen Morgan immediately to the north being one of the most capable/popular Lib Dem MPs, but a relative lack of Lib Dem MPs+target seats in the overall West Midlands area meaning proportionately more activists able to focus on South Shropshire.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 16, 2024 12:59:45 GMT
I remain rather unconvinced that most tactical voting sites make any significant difference at all, tbh.
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Aug 16, 2024 13:36:22 GMT
Yeah, I’m a bit sceptical about that being blamed
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 16, 2024 16:06:58 GMT
I remain rather unconvinced that most tactical voting sites make any significant difference at all, tbh. Most voters won't pay attention to them but in the competitive races won by a small margin, there could have been an effect. Whether it would have been enough in itself for the Lib Dems to win here- who knows? In hindsight they'd have won if they'd redirected more resources from North Shropshire to South Shropshire sooner, but one can hardly fault them for being cautious. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 18, 2024 21:11:31 GMT
I remain rather unconvinced that most tactical voting sites make any significant difference at all, tbh. Why do you think that then? They’re a useful tool I think. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 18, 2024 21:21:03 GMT
I remain rather unconvinced that most tactical voting sites make any significant difference at all, tbh. Why do you think that then? They’re a useful tool I think. Because normal people don’t look at them and normal people will make a decision based on multiple sources. For normal people a decision on who to vote for isn’t significant and it’s just something they briefly think about, very few spend days agonising over who to vote for. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 18, 2024 21:43:53 GMT
Why do you think that then? They’re a useful tool I think. Because normal people don’t look at them and normal people will make a decision based on multiple sources. For normal people a decision on who to vote for isn’t significant and it’s just something they briefly think about, very few spend days agonising over who to vote for. Vote tactically or vote on vibes. |
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 18, 2024 22:28:02 GMT
I remain rather unconvinced that most tactical voting sites make any significant difference at all, tbh. Most voters won't pay attention to them but in the competitive races won by a small margin, there could have been an effect. Whether it would have been enough in itself for the Lib Dems to win here- who knows? How many voters are engaged enough to check a tactical voting site but not engaged enough to notice which parties are putting leaflets through their door (as would be the case in any sear where the Lib Dems are the main challenge to the Conservatives)? I suspect you need a margin of under 200 in a seat for them to make an actual difference to the result. And even closer if they aren't even recommending the same party. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 18, 2024 22:52:48 GMT
Most voters won't pay attention to them but in the competitive races won by a small margin, there could have been an effect. Whether it would have been enough in itself for the Lib Dems to win here- who knows? How many voters are engaged enough to check a tactical voting site but not engaged enough to notice which parties are putting leaflets through their door (as would be the case in any sear where the Lib Dems are the main challenge to the Conservatives)? I suspect you need a margin of under 200 in a seat for them to make an actual difference to the result. And even closer if they aren't even recommending the same party. You'd be surprised. I've seen several people in Isle of Wight East annoyed that the Greens were continuing to campaign strongly, saying people should "accept the tactical voting websites" and rally behind Labour (regardless of the hustings, local campaign strength, etc). Tactical voting websites are seen as an unbiased/objective thing to rally behind whereas leaflets are something all parties send out. |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 19, 2024 0:01:53 GMT
How many voters are engaged enough to check a tactical voting site but not engaged enough to notice which parties are putting leaflets through their door (as would be the case in any sear where the Lib Dems are the main challenge to the Conservatives)? I suspect you need a margin of under 200 in a seat for them to make an actual difference to the result. And even closer if they aren't even recommending the same party. You'd be surprised. I've seen several people in Isle of Wight East annoyed that the Greens were continuing to campaign strongly, saying people should "accept the tactical voting websites" and rally behind Labour (regardless of the hustings, local campaign strength, etc). Tactical voting websites are seen as an unbiased/objective thing to rally behind whereas leaflets are something all parties send out. It’s almost as if they are not capable of deciding who they actually *want* to vote for. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 19, 2024 1:00:33 GMT
You'd be surprised. I've seen several people in Isle of Wight East annoyed that the Greens were continuing to campaign strongly, saying people should "accept the tactical voting websites" and rally behind Labour (regardless of the hustings, local campaign strength, etc). Tactical voting websites are seen as an unbiased/objective thing to rally behind whereas leaflets are something all parties send out. It’s almost as if they are not capable of deciding who they actually *want* to vote for. Well, yes, a lot of voters were primarily motivated by voting against the Conservative Party rather than for whoever they ended up voting for. Quite possibly a majority. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 19, 2024 3:39:04 GMT
Ludlow was Tory held in 1997. Lib Dems gained it in 2001. LD should win here next time. It's an interesting parallel, of course. Hereford was a more impressive hold. That seat actually fell in 1997.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Aug 19, 2024 8:45:02 GMT
The Lib Dems did not have a very good MP in Hereford and they were fortunate it didn't fall before it did. It's just yet another seat where they fell out of second place in 2015 & have not been able to recover it, there are many more including some which were won by the LDs in 2010 but by Labour in 2024 (St Austell & Newquay for example). It would have been amazing if Labour had won in Hereford as our local government strength is not exactly fantastic in Hereford city itself & is non-existent in the rest of the constituency. I don't find the Tories holding the seat impressive. My knowledge of Hereford stems from my sister, her husband, daughters & cat living there for several years not that long ago.
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 19, 2024 10:11:17 GMT
How many voters are engaged enough to check a tactical voting site but not engaged enough to notice which parties are putting leaflets through their door (as would be the case in any sear where the Lib Dems are the main challenge to the Conservatives)? I suspect you need a margin of under 200 in a seat for them to make an actual difference to the result. And even closer if they aren't even recommending the same party. You'd be surprised. I've seen several people in Isle of Wight East annoyed that the Greens were continuing to campaign strongly, saying people should "accept the tactical voting websites" and rally behind Labour (regardless of the hustings, local campaign strength, etc). Tactical voting websites are seen as an unbiased/objective thing to rally behind whereas leaflets are something all parties send out. I've genuinely not come across that kind of sentiment from anybody who isn't a Labour party member.
Of course, as it turns out, Isle of Wight East wasn't a competitive seat.
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Post by aargauer on Aug 19, 2024 11:20:22 GMT
You'd be surprised. I've seen several people in Isle of Wight East annoyed that the Greens were continuing to campaign strongly, saying people should "accept the tactical voting websites" and rally behind Labour (regardless of the hustings, local campaign strength, etc). Tactical voting websites are seen as an unbiased/objective thing to rally behind whereas leaflets are something all parties send out. I've genuinely not come across that kind of sentiment from anybody who isn't a Labour party member.
Of course, as it turns out, Isle of Wight East wasn't a competitive seat.
I'm surprised how much the two Isle of Wight seats diverged. Was that expected? Bob Seely definitely made the wrong choice? |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Aug 19, 2024 12:11:49 GMT
This has been discussed before. Bob Seely made the choice he did because he lives in the West constituency and probably for no other unrelated reason. The extent of the divergence however was a little unexpected; however, Labour are known to have strength in Newport & Cowes and much less so anywhere in the East constituency, although they probably did relatively well in Ryde & Sandown. The vigorous if rather OTT campaign by Vix Lowthion may have at least slightly contributed to the divergence - and I strongly suspect that Labour worked West and not East.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Aug 19, 2024 17:37:00 GMT
The Lib Dems did not have a very good MP in Hereford and they were fortunate it didn't fall before it did. It's just yet another seat where they fell out of second place in 2015 & have not been able to recover it, there are many more including some which were won by the LDs in 2010 but by Labour in 2024 (St Austell & Newquay for example). It would have been amazing if Labour had won in Hereford as our local government strength is not exactly fantastic in Hereford city itself & is non-existent in the rest of the constituency. I don't find the Tories holding the seat impressive. My knowledge of Hereford stems from my sister, her husband, daughters & cat living there for several years not that long ago. What I think is a little unusual about Hereford is that it is the only constituency in England which the Lib Dems won in all of 1997, 2001 and 2005 but whose successor seat voted Conservative in 2024. (Even if you allow constituencies which voted Lib Dem in at least one of those elections, you don't get so many more: Romsey, Solihull, Torridge & West Devon, this seat's predecessor Ludlow, and I suppose the Isle of Wight should count.) Most of the Tory-facing constituencies which the Lib Dems were winning in that period went back to the Lib Dems, or if not went Labour. On the question of tactical voting websites, I'm sure a few people do look at them, but I doubt it would actually have been enough to be decisive, especially as I assume that in practice it was obvious on the ground that the advice in this constituency was wrong. (It was pretty obvious to me, and I wasn't on the ground there.) The Labour percentage share was actually the same (13.4%) to one decimal place as it was when Matthew Green won Ludlow in 2001. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 19, 2024 19:46:29 GMT
The Lib Dems did not have a very good MP in Hereford and they were fortunate it didn't fall before it did. It's just yet another seat where they fell out of second place in 2015 & have not been able to recover it, there are many more including some which were won by the LDs in 2010 but by Labour in 2024 (St Austell & Newquay for example). It would have been amazing if Labour had won in Hereford as our local government strength is not exactly fantastic in Hereford city itself & is non-existent in the rest of the constituency. I don't find the Tories holding the seat impressive. My knowledge of Hereford stems from my sister, her husband, daughters & cat living there for several years not that long ago. What I think is a little unusual about Hereford is that it is the only constituency in England which the Lib Dems won in all of 1997, 2001 and 2005 but whose successor seat voted Conservative in 2024. (Even if you allow constituencies which voted Lib Dem in at least one of those elections, you don't get so many more: Romsey, Solihull, Torridge & West Devon, this seat's predecessor Ludlow, and I suppose the Isle of Wight should count.) Most of the Tory-facing constituencies which the Lib Dems were winning in that period went back to the Lib Dems, or if not went Labour. On the question of tactical voting websites, I'm sure a few people do look at them, but I doubt it would actually have been enough to be decisive, especially as I assume that in practice it was obvious on the ground that the advice in this constituency was wrong. (It was pretty obvious to me, and I wasn't on the ground there.) The Labour percentage share was actually the same (13.4%) to one decimal place as it was when Matthew Green won Ludlow in 2001. Are there not parts of the new Hamble Valley seat which were in the Eastleigh constituency 1997-2005? |
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