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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 4, 2024 9:29:08 GMT
Derek Chisora! A strange man.
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 14, 2024 18:27:20 GMT
It remains somewhat amusing to me a week and a half later that after all was said and done, Yakoob ended up not coming very close to unseating Mahmood at all, especially considering the performances of some other similar candidates in the rest of Birmingham. I wonder if he just got too much negative attention for his own good in the end.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 27, 2024 13:17:08 GMT
It remains somewhat amusing to me a week and a half later that after all was said and done, Yakoob ended up not coming very close to unseating Mahmood at all, especially considering the performances of some other similar candidates in the rest of Birmingham. I wonder if he just got too much negative attention for his own good in the end. I have been looking at some of the seats where the Muslim Independents won or did well and I am not convinced by the argument that Yakoob under performed, at least not in the circumstances. If you compare his result with neighbouring Perry Barr (won by Ayoub Khan - Ind) their votes are pretty similar 33% for Yakoob, 35% for Khan. Now it is true that Ladywood is more Muslim than Perry Barr, 49% v 43% at the last census, but there are some key differences. Firstly Khan was a long time city councillor who appears to have a very strong following in Aston ward. He got over 3,000 votes there at the last locals and presumably got many more at the general. In comparison Yakoob had no established base in Ladywood. Secondly Perry Barr incumbent Khalid Mahmood seems to have been widely disliked where as in Ladywood Shabana Mahmood seems quite well regarded, is clearly in a position of high influence and was far better equipped to see off a Muslim Independent than most. Thirdly Ladywood was simply much safer for Labour with a 2019 notional of 83% compared to 68% in Perry Barr. The 35% that got Khan elected would not have been enough for Yakoob, he was always going to need around 40%. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 27, 2024 14:44:22 GMT
It remains somewhat amusing to me a week and a half later that after all was said and done, Yakoob ended up not coming very close to unseating Mahmood at all, especially considering the performances of some other similar candidates in the rest of Birmingham. I wonder if he just got too much negative attention for his own good in the end. I have been looking at some of the seats where the Muslim Independents won or did well and I am not convinced by the argument that Yakoob under performed, at least not in the circumstances. If you compare his result with neighbouring Perry Barr (won by Ayoub Khan - Ind) their votes are pretty similar 33% for Yakoob, 35% for Khan. Now it is true that Ladywood is more Muslim than Perry Barr, 49% v 43% at the last census, but there are some key differences. Firstly Khan was a long time city councillor who appears to have a very strong following in Aston ward. He got over 3,000 votes there at the last locals and presumably got many more at the general. In comparison Yakoob had no established base in Ladywood. Secondly Perry Barr incumbent Khalid Mahmood seems to have been widely disliked where as in Ladywood Shabana Mahmood seems quite well regarded, is clearly in a position of high influence and was far better equipped to see off a Muslim Independent than most. Thirdly Ladywood was simply much safer for Labour with a 2019 notional of 83% compared to 68% in Perry Barr. The 35% that got Khan elected would not have been enough for Yakoob, he was always going to need around 40%. Another factor may be that Ladywood has more of a liberal and metropolitan presence - it includes the city centre where I suspect Yakoob polled particularly badly (and where a lot of progressive minded voters may have been more motivated to vote Labour to stop him). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 27, 2024 15:07:41 GMT
Another factor is that Ladywood has a much higher percentage of Blacks (24% against 17% in Perry barr) who are much more loyal to Labour
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Post by batman on Jul 27, 2024 16:42:27 GMT
Khalid Mahmood isn't generally all that well-regarded in his own party even. His candidacy for deputy leader was short-lived & basically a bit of a joke. A few years ago I was at a wedding. He was supposed to be there but failed to turn up without sending an apology. I don't like it when people do that. Rupa Huq did come though.
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 27, 2024 18:56:33 GMT
Does anyone here have any estimates of how each ward here voted? I suspect that the breakdown would probably look something like this: Solid LAB: Ladywood Soho and Jewellery Quarter Definitely LAB: Nechells Newtown Solid Yakoob: Alum Rock Bordesley Green Definitely Yakoob: Balsall Heath West Too close to call (though I would guess that LAB won): Bordesley and Highgate
Additionally, I would guess that another factor in Yakoob's loss was that he failed to appeal to enough of the fairly wide coalition of voters that were probably necessary for him to win (even amongst Muslim voters). I did allude to this earlier in this thread, and it does relate to stuff everyone else has brought up here, however this factor would have also applied to Ayoub Khan. Regardless, not to change the topic here too much, but none of this will particularly matter to Yakoob now, who will no doubt be more than satisfied with the attention that he's receiving in his new personal anime story arc - maybe there is indeed a defence for every offence after all.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 27, 2024 19:45:21 GMT
Does anyone here have any estimates of how each ward here voted? I suspect that the breakdown would probably look something like this: Solid LAB: Ladywood Soho and Jewellery Quarter Definitely LAB: Nechells Newtown Solid Yakoob: Alum Rock Bordesley Green Definitely Yakoob: Balsall Heath West Too close to call (though I would guess that LAB won): Bordesley and Highgate Additionally, I would guess that another factor in Yakoob's loss was that he failed to appeal to enough of the fairly wide coalition of voters that were probably necessary for him to win (even amongst Muslim voters). I did allude to this earlier in this thread, and it does relate to stuff everyone else has brought up here, however this factor would have also applied to Ayoub Khan. Regardless, not to change the topic here too much, but none of this will particularly matter to Yakoob now, who will no doubt be more than satisfied with the attention that he's receiving in his new personal anime story arc - maybe there is indeed a defence for every offence after all. Electoral Calculus rather unhelpfully gives every ward to Labour. |
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
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Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 27, 2024 19:49:32 GMT
Electoral Calculus rather unhelpfully gives every ward to Labour. They don't currently seem to be up, but their output area level estimates also had Yakoob winning precisely the bits of the constituency he would have done worst in.
The other sets of ward-level estimates that I've seen disagree with each other on who won Bordesley and Highgate, but are otherwise in line with mine.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 27, 2024 19:54:55 GMT
It was always worth carefully observing that this is the one constituency in Birmingham where Muslim does not automatically mean South Asian Muslim even if it mostly does. Candidate quality will have told as well, but I was reasonably sure throughout the campaign that there were other inner/partially inner Birmingham seats at greater risk than this one, even after the boundary changes.
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jul 27, 2024 20:30:29 GMT
Electoral Calculus rather unhelpfully gives every ward to Labour. They don't currently seem to be up, but their output area level estimates also had Yakoob winning precisely the bits of the constituency he would have done worst in. See their Leicester South estimates too - the independent Shockat Adam is given Eyres Monsell ward which is the most white part of the seat. And in Rochdale, Galloway is not allocated Central Rochdale, or Milkstone and Deeplish, where there are WPB councillors, but he apparently does win the white suburban areas in the east of the seat (e.g. Littleborough Lakeside ward). So we just have to disregard their estimates there. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 28, 2024 0:31:02 GMT
That is so shockingly bad and so obviously wrong that their estimates should be disregarded everywhere
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jul 28, 2024 7:25:41 GMT
They don't currently seem to be up, but their output area level estimates also had Yakoob winning precisely the bits of the constituency he would have done worst in. See their Leicester South estimates too - the independent Shockat Adam is given Eyres Monsell ward which is the most white part of the seat. And in Rochdale, Galloway is not allocated Central Rochdale, or Milkstone and Deeplish, where there are WPB councillors, but he apparently does win the white suburban areas in the east of the seat (e.g. Littleborough Lakeside ward). So we just have to disregard their estimates there. Rochdale is particularly strange as they had been forecasting Galloway to win Central Rochdale and Milkstone & Deeplish before the election, and also as we have data showing the Workers Party performance in the local elections there. They got 17 votes in said locals in one of the wards EC has them as carrying in the General! At least in Birmingham they have the excuse that there is not really any relevant local election data, and some aspects of what was going on will genuinely be hard to model. (E.g. the breakdown of the votes of the two Independents who got substantial votes in Hall Green & Moseley.) Still, we do have some data on where Independent/WP candidates did well, both from the General Election and locals in other parts of the country. Pete Whitehead are you going to do the West Midlands by ward? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 28, 2024 8:44:37 GMT
I literally started work on that in the early hours of this morning.
You raise a good point about Hall Green. I wonder if any of our local correspondents have an idea of which wards one may have been stronger in relative to the other?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 28, 2024 11:28:43 GMT
Akhmed Yakoob has now inserted himself into the Manchester Airport incident.
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Post by batman on Jul 28, 2024 11:36:51 GMT
that's bound to help.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 28, 2024 11:52:24 GMT
Another factor is that Ladywood has a much higher percentage of Blacks (24% against 17% in Perry barr) who are much more loyal to Labour I did notice that but I wondered how many of those might be African Muslims as opposed to Black Caribbean. Also Perry Barr has a substantial Sikh population which would presumably have been pretty loyal to Labour. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jul 28, 2024 12:01:34 GMT
Akhmed Yakoob has now inserted himself into the Manchester Airport incident. He seems to be saying say inflammatory things there. Has he actually been appointed as the family solicitor, or has he appointed himself? |
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 28, 2024 12:24:16 GMT
The fact that every media outlet is saying so would suggest that it is infact the former.
I did notice that but I wondered how many of those might be African Muslims as opposed to Black Caribbean. Also Perry Barr has a substantial Sikh population which would presumably have been pretty loyal to Labour.
Yep, and this was one of the main reasons that I was initially very surprised that it was the Birmingham seat that Labour ended up losing. Regarding your other point, see below:
per Nomis, at the last census approximately 44% of the black population here was Muslim, representing around 21% of the total Muslim population, and 10% of the population as a whole. IIRC this does mean that the slight plurality of the black population is Muslim, in contrast to most other seats with significant black populations. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 28, 2024 12:29:46 GMT
Akhmed Yakoob has now inserted himself into the Manchester Airport incident. He seems to be saying say inflammatory things there. Has he actually been appointed as the family solicitor, or has he appointed himself? Yes. He is the family solicitor. |
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