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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 11, 2024 7:53:58 GMT
121 vote majority for the Conservatives over Labour with 28.7 and 28.5% respectively, and with the Lib Dems on 22.2%. Calling this as the most likely Labour gain next time around. I would agree with that. Labour seem to be on an upward trend in the south west. They are in poll position to gather tactical votes next time around even if the national trends are away from Labour. Perhaps let's revisit this in three years time. No doubt some were predicting Yvette Cooper's seat (for example) would go Conservative immediately after the 2019 GE. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 14, 2024 14:48:24 GMT
I would agree with that. Labour seem to be on an upward trend in the south west. They are in poll position to gather tactical votes next time around even if the national trends are away from Labour. Perhaps let's revisit this in three years time. No doubt some were predicting Yvette Cooper's seat (for example) would go Conservative immediately after the 2019 GE. It is pretty clear this is going to be a gain sooner or later, if only continued housebuilding is likely to cause the constituency to drop more rural (and Conservative areas) in future reviews. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 14, 2024 15:11:28 GMT
Perhaps let's revisit this in three years time. No doubt some were predicting Yvette Cooper's seat (for example) would go Conservative immediately after the 2019 GE. It is pretty clear this is going to be a gain sooner or later, if only continued housebuilding is likely to cause the constituency to drop more rural (and Conservative areas) in future reviews. It was a brand new seat at this election. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 14, 2024 15:30:04 GMT
Perhaps let's revisit this in three years time. No doubt some were predicting Yvette Cooper's seat (for example) would go Conservative immediately after the 2019 GE. It is pretty clear this is going to be a gain sooner or later, if only continued housebuilding is likely to cause the constituency to drop more rural (and Conservative areas) in future reviews. This seems to be a Westcountry equivalent to say South Cambridgeshire, as the name suggests here, taking in parts of a university city with suburbs/rural hinterland, just with Labour as the beneficiary rather than the Lib Dems. Does anyone know why the LD vote increased so much (according to the +/- share changes on the Wikipedia article for this) here, when in none of the three former constituencies the LDs were in contention? I assume Claire Wright's endorsement of the LDs had an impact, so all her independent vote went to them? |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 14, 2024 16:20:32 GMT
It is pretty clear this is going to be a gain sooner or later, if only continued housebuilding is likely to cause the constituency to drop more rural (and Conservative areas) in future reviews. It was a brand new seat at this election. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. As the the new build continues, it will be more and more Exmouth and Exeter and less rural areas. I can't see a seat that's a part of an university town and another town being Conservative (see South Cambs, Oxford W and Abington, Lancaster and Wyre...) |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jul 14, 2024 18:16:36 GMT
I notice this was predicted as the Conservative seat with the lowest percentage majority to be held in the BBC Exit poll and they were correct in this prediction. Any suggestion as to why and would Simon Jupp have held this had he stood here? The reason why is that the unique circumstances of this constituency meant that there was zero indication of which of Labour and the Lib Dems were in the best position to beat the Tories, leading to a heavily split opposition. I think that if the Tories win double the seats they did next time around, Labour could still gain this. I'm actually surprised Labour surpassed the Lib Dems- with Claire Wright endorsing the Lib Dem and it not being a declared Labour target seat, I was expecting a comfortable Lib Dem win. Local Labour Party must have ran a strong campaign. Needless to say had Wright stood again she'd have easily won. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 15, 2024 17:43:49 GMT
The reason why is that the unique circumstances of this constituency meant that there was zero indication of which of Labour and the Lib Dems were in the best position to beat the Tories, leading to a heavily split opposition. I think that if the Tories win double the seats they did next time around, Labour could still gain this. I'm actually surprised Labour surpassed the Lib Dems- with Claire Wright endorsing the Lib Dem and it not being a declared Labour target seat, I was expecting a comfortable Lib Dem win. Local Labour Party must have ran a strong campaign. Needless to say had Wright stood again she'd have easily won. Any idea of why Wright didn't stand this time round? |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 15, 2024 19:29:08 GMT
The reason why is that the unique circumstances of this constituency meant that there was zero indication of which of Labour and the Lib Dems were in the best position to beat the Tories, leading to a heavily split opposition. I think that if the Tories win double the seats they did next time around, Labour could still gain this. I'm actually surprised Labour surpassed the Lib Dems- with Claire Wright endorsing the Lib Dem and it not being a declared Labour target seat, I was expecting a comfortable Lib Dem win. Local Labour Party must have ran a strong campaign. Needless to say had Wright stood again she'd have easily won. Surely most of the Labour votes would have come from the Exeter East part and that the LDs couldn’t persuade them that they are the challenger for the new constituency. Whereas in South Cambridgeshire, the LDs must have knocked on every door of the newly added normally Labour ward of Cherry Hinton to tell them to switch their vote this time otherwise there wouldn’t be a 10,000 majority across the constituency. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2024 19:32:00 GMT
I think the Tories are heading for the Exet(er) here.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jul 15, 2024 22:07:52 GMT
Surely most of the Labour votes would have come from the Exeter East part and that the LDs couldn’t persuade them that they are the challenger for the new constituency. Only about 7000 new voters entered the constituency from Exeter- East Devon had already contained a smaller chunk of Exeter. Think the reason for the result was probably Exeter Labour activists prioritizing it regardless of national party lack of focus. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 20, 2024 10:33:28 GMT
It is pretty clear this is going to be a gain sooner or later, if only continued housebuilding is likely to cause the constituency to drop more rural (and Conservative areas) in future reviews. This seems to be a Westcountry equivalent to say South Cambridgeshire, as the name suggests here, taking in parts of a university city with suburbs/rural hinterland, just with Labour as the beneficiary rather than the Lib Dems. Does anyone know why the LD vote increased so much (according to the +/- share changes on the Wikipedia article for this) here, when in none of the three former constituencies the LDs were in contention? I assume Claire Wright's endorsement of the LDs had an impact, so all her independent vote went to them? I don't know the answer to your question but the Lib Dem vote increased by 14 pts in the East Devon DC elections last year while both Con and Lab support fell. The Lib Dems had been running the council in coalition with Independents prior to that and continue to do so. The relationship was clearly a good one and three of the independent cllrs joined the Lib Dems prior to the LE and were successfully re-elected. That includes the council leader Paul Arnott who was the candidate here. Given the close relationship between the Lib Dems and Indies it's perhaps not surprising Claire Wright endorsed and campaigned for the Lib Dem candidates both here and in Honiton & Sidmouth. |
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Post by michaelarden on Jul 21, 2024 0:02:52 GMT
I don't know the answer to your question but the Lib Dem vote increased by 14 pts in the East Devon DC elections last year while both Con and Lab support fell. The Lib Dems had been running the council in coalition with Independents prior to that and continue to do so. The relationship was clearly a good one and three of the independent cllrs joined the Lib Dems prior to the LE and were successfully re-elected. That includes the council leader Paul Arnott who was the candidate here. Given the close relationship between the Lib Dems and Indies it's perhaps not surprising Claire Wright endorsed and campaigned for the Lib Dem candidates both here and in Honiton & Sidmouth. Claire Wright doesn't sound very independent to me. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 21, 2024 9:32:35 GMT
I don't know the answer to your question but the Lib Dem vote increased by 14 pts in the East Devon DC elections last year while both Con and Lab support fell. The Lib Dems had been running the council in coalition with Independents prior to that and continue to do so. The relationship was clearly a good one and three of the independent cllrs joined the Lib Dems prior to the LE and were successfully re-elected. That includes the council leader Paul Arnott who was the candidate here. Given the close relationship between the Lib Dems and Indies it's perhaps not surprising Claire Wright endorsed and campaigned for the Lib Dem candidates both here and in Honiton & Sidmouth. Claire Wright doesn't sound very independent to me. And how many Independents have you met who don't hold political views that align them with one political party or another? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2024 14:55:36 GMT
Indeed, and she very clearly focused herself as an anti-Tory candidate in 2017 and 2019 (I'm not sure about 2015), and not just a generic local independent for local people. She also hasn't been an elected official at any level for a few years now, so she doesn't need to declare if she is really an independent or actually a Lib Dem or something else entirely.
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