Exmouth and Exeter East

[stb12]

Exmouth and Exeter East

[greenhert]

Pay no attention to the notional results for this seat, especially since Claire Wright is not standing again.

Instead, we should predict which party the progressive vote will coalesce around, since we can at least say that this seat is less safely Conservative than the former East Devon.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Labour are clearly the strongest non-Conservative party in the three Exeter wards. The Lib Dems did best in the East Devon portions last year, but there were few wards where the LDs, Labour and the Greens faced off and none where full slates opposed each other. Where there were multiple non-Tory options there was clearly a lot of split voting.

My impression is that the LDs are perhaps slightly better organised here than other parties, but a) that's not saying much; b) they need to try and keep Richard Foord in parliament and if they're targeting anywhere else in Devon, this won't be top of their list; and c) Exeter CLP is safe and well-organised enough to devote a fair amount of support and it's a lot easier for their activists to get here than to Moor View.

[andrewp]

Mar 19, 2024 12:15:31 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Labour are clearly the strongest non-Conservative party in the three Exeter wards. The Lib Dems did best in the East Devon portions last year, but there were few wards where the LDs, Labour and the Greens faced off and none where full slates opposed each other. Where there were multiple non-Tory options there was clearly a lot of split voting.

My impression is that the LDs are perhaps slightly better organised here than other parties, but a) that's not saying much; b) they need to try and keep Richard Foord in parliament and if they're targeting anywhere else in Devon, this won't be top of their list; and c) Exeter CLP is safe and well-organised enough to devote a fair amount of support and it's a lot easier for their activists to get here than to Moor View.

It is going to be an interesting one. I was in Exmouth at the weekend and said to my wife that Exmouth is changing- it’s getting visibly younger and more commuterish to Exeter. Exmouth is ripe for Labour to start doing better if they work it, but as you say the LDs are quite well organised in Exmouth. If I were Exeter Labour I would be working Exmouth as much as Exeter at the moment. 

The LDs will be focussed on Richard Foord in Honiton, I wonder if it ever crossed his mind to stand here as on paper this is more promising for the LD’s
This could be quite close to a 3 way split if the Conservatives have their potential real disaster

[nyx]

Mar 19, 2024 12:39:14 GMT andrewp said:

I wonder if it ever crossed his mind to stand here as on paper this is more promising for the LD’s

Highly doubt it as this seat doesn't have any territory in common with Tiverton and Honiton and is nowhere near where Foord lives.

[YL]

I would expect Labour to be the main "progressive" challenger by default in most constituencies except for those which have a clear Lib Dem history or see a strong campaign from the Lib Dems or Greens. This constituency has an idiosyncratic recent history, and is mostly in a district with some very odd local election results over the years, but I doubt the Lib Dems will try very hard here when it is next to what is arguably their hardest de facto defence. So I tend to think that Labour are the most likely to emerge as challenging the Tories here.

The other question is how safe it actually is for the Tories. Their notional share last time was under 50%, which would normally suggest "not very", but given the nature of the challenge in 2019 I'm not sure much can be read into that.