CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,719
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 4, 2024 18:02:02 GMT
The Reform Candidate apparently was previously convicted of kicking an elderly deaf dog so badly, that it died - he claimed he was protecting his family and own dog and that the other dog had bad recall - well, being deaf, it would have. He was fined £2,000, banned from keeping an animal and sentenced to 200 hours community work. No Labour candidates ever shown bad character? He was convicted less than a year ago, he wouldn't have been allowed to stand for Labour. |
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Post by observer on Jul 4, 2024 18:03:59 GMT
No Labour candidates ever shown bad character? He was convicted less than a year ago, he wouldn't have been allowed to stand for Labour. Can you be sure? Visit the Labour25 site, now amended to Labour25+51 It's childish to try to blacken a party's name in this way |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,719
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 4, 2024 18:07:16 GMT
He was convicted less than a year ago, he wouldn't have been allowed to stand for Labour. Can you be sure? Visit the Labour25 site, now amended to Labour25+51 It's childish to try to blacken a party's name in this way I wasn't blackening his party's name, I was expressing surprise at his behaviour. I am equally surprised he was selected - did nobody local know about it? In what way is that childish? |
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Post by observer on Jul 4, 2024 18:09:08 GMT
Can you be sure? Visit the Labour25 site, now amended to Labour25+51 It's childish to try to blacken a party's name in this way I wasn't blackening his party's name, I was expressing surprise at his behaviour. I am equally surprised he was selected - did nobody local know about it? In what way is that childish? I'm referring to coming up with examples of bad character as a substitute for proper debate which is far more enlightening. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,719
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 4, 2024 18:12:28 GMT
I wasn't blackening his party's name, I was expressing surprise at his behaviour. I am equally surprised he was selected - did nobody local know about it? In what way is that childish? I'm referring to coming up with examples of bad character as a substitute for proper debate which is far more enlightening. A person's character should be part of debate. |
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Post by observer on Jul 4, 2024 18:13:37 GMT
I'm referring to coming up with examples of bad character as a substitute for proper debate which is far more enlightening. A person's character should be part of debate. Yes... but not as a replacement for debate on the political, economic and cultural issues |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,719
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 4, 2024 18:20:55 GMT
A person's character should be part of debate. Yes... but not as a replacement for debate on the political, economic and cultural issues I am reporting, not debating which is now pointless as the campaign is over. Anyway - I hope you enjoy election night. It is, in the end, the interest we all share. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 4, 2024 18:23:12 GMT
The Reform Candidate was, in August of last year, convicted of violently kicking an elderly deaf dog (that subsequently died) - he claimed he was protecting his family and own dog and that the other dog had bad recall - well, being deaf, it would have. He was fined £2,000, banned from keeping an animal and sentenced to 200 hours community work. Surely this should be on the amazing hilarity thread. |
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Post by observer on Jul 4, 2024 18:23:56 GMT
Yes... but not as a replacement for debate on the political, economic and cultural issues I am reporting, not debating which is now pointless as the campaign is over. Anyway - I hope you enjoy election night. It is, in the end, the interest we all share. Thanks, and I hope you enjoy yours too. But it is noticeable - not from you! - how much political debate has been replaced by 'gotcha' moments etc |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 7:00:39 GMT
121 vote majority for the Conservatives over Labour with 28.7 and 28.5% respectively, and with the Lib Dems on 22.2%. Calling this as the most likely Labour gain next time around.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 5, 2024 7:07:22 GMT
I wouldn't be counting on Labour gaining seats next time around (apart from the likes of Blackburn and Dewsbury)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 7:15:50 GMT
I wouldn't be counting on Labour gaining seats next time around (apart from the likes of Blackburn and Dewsbury) Labour gained South Dorset in 2001 which was under similar circumstances in 1997, although I don't rate Labour's chances of the next election echoing 2001. Housebuilding in this constituency will benefit Labour in the long term and I think will make a meaningful difference between now and the next election. But yes, there's a reason why I said 'most likely' rather than 'most certain' or similar!
And of course you're right that those seats are much better contenders, I hadn't considered that.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 5, 2024 17:12:56 GMT
121 vote majority for the Conservatives over Labour with 28.7 and 28.5% respectively, and with the Lib Dems on 22.2%. Calling this as the most likely Labour gain next time around. It is clear that Claire Wright made the wrong choice when it came to endorsements. Perhaps if she had made a 4th attempt herself she would have won here. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 17:44:03 GMT
121 vote majority for the Conservatives over Labour with 28.7 and 28.5% respectively, and with the Lib Dems on 22.2%. Calling this as the most likely Labour gain next time around. It is clear that Claire Wright made the wrong choice when it came to endorsements. Perhaps if she had made a 4th attempt herself she would have won here. Yes, I think a lot of people foresaw this happening from that endorsement. Had she endorsed Labour I think we'd have seen a rather different result (not because her endorsement matters that much alone, but because I think Labour could have more easily pitched themselves as the obvious tactical choice).
As for standing again, she lives in Ottery which is just into Honiton and Sidmouth. Not a huge issue for a party candidate but definitely a problem for a localist independent!
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216 
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Post by haroldthepolitician on Jul 8, 2024 17:27:58 GMT
I think this seat might be a hold for the tories - hard for either party to convince people to tactically vote given none actually have any tangible data to do so. Projections and what not just arent as powerful as previous election results - I imagine a good portion of claires vote might even go to the tories which we shouldn't discount but I imagine thats ofset by the depletion of the vote for national reasons. Kinda reckoning: Conservative - 36% Labour - 30% Liberal Democrat - 23% Reform 8% Green - 3% Not far off here - Underestimating Reform put the tories higher than they where but my prediction was pre farage if i recall so not too bad. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 8, 2024 21:06:58 GMT
I notice this was predicted as the Conservative seat with the lowest percentage majority to be held in the BBC Exit poll and they were correct in this prediction. Any suggestion as to why and would Simon Jupp have held this had he stood here?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2024 5:26:47 GMT
I notice this was predicted as the Conservative seat with the lowest percentage majority to be held in the BBC Exit poll and they were correct in this prediction. Any suggestion as to why and would Simon Jupp have held this had he stood here? The reason why is that the unique circumstances of this constituency meant that there was zero indication of which of Labour and the Lib Dems were in the best position to beat the Tories, leading to a heavily split opposition. I think that if the Tories win double the seats they did next time around, Labour could still gain this. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 9, 2024 5:33:30 GMT
Presumably it's still correct that Budleigh Salterton has had Conservative MPs since the 1830s even if Sidmouth has now broken with that tradition?
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jul 9, 2024 12:20:30 GMT
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,785
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Post by john07 on Jul 9, 2024 19:53:49 GMT
121 vote majority for the Conservatives over Labour with 28.7 and 28.5% respectively, and with the Lib Dems on 22.2%. Calling this as the most likely Labour gain next time around. I would agree with that. Labour seem to be on an upward trend in the south west. They are in poll position to gather tactical votes next time around even if the national trends are away from Labour. |
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