Exmouth and Exeter East

[stb12]

Exmouth and Exeter East

[greenhert]

Pay no attention to the notional results for this seat, especially since Claire Wright is not standing again.

Instead, we should predict which party the progressive vote will coalesce around, since we can at least say that this seat is less safely Conservative than the former East Devon.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Labour are clearly the strongest non-Conservative party in the three Exeter wards. The Lib Dems did best in the East Devon portions last year, but there were few wards where the LDs, Labour and the Greens faced off and none where full slates opposed each other. Where there were multiple non-Tory options there was clearly a lot of split voting.

My impression is that the LDs are perhaps slightly better organised here than other parties, but a) that's not saying much; b) they need to try and keep Richard Foord in parliament and if they're targeting anywhere else in Devon, this won't be top of their list; and c) Exeter CLP is safe and well-organised enough to devote a fair amount of support and it's a lot easier for their activists to get here than to Moor View.

[andrewp]

Mar 19, 2024 12:15:31 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Labour are clearly the strongest non-Conservative party in the three Exeter wards. The Lib Dems did best in the East Devon portions last year, but there were few wards where the LDs, Labour and the Greens faced off and none where full slates opposed each other. Where there were multiple non-Tory options there was clearly a lot of split voting.

My impression is that the LDs are perhaps slightly better organised here than other parties, but a) that's not saying much; b) they need to try and keep Richard Foord in parliament and if they're targeting anywhere else in Devon, this won't be top of their list; and c) Exeter CLP is safe and well-organised enough to devote a fair amount of support and it's a lot easier for their activists to get here than to Moor View.

It is going to be an interesting one. I was in Exmouth at the weekend and said to my wife that Exmouth is changing- it’s getting visibly younger and more commuterish to Exeter. Exmouth is ripe for Labour to start doing better if they work it, but as you say the LDs are quite well organised in Exmouth. If I were Exeter Labour I would be working Exmouth as much as Exeter at the moment. 

The LDs will be focussed on Richard Foord in Honiton, I wonder if it ever crossed his mind to stand here as on paper this is more promising for the LD’s
This could be quite close to a 3 way split if the Conservatives have their potential real disaster

[nyx]

Mar 19, 2024 12:39:14 GMT andrewp said:

I wonder if it ever crossed his mind to stand here as on paper this is more promising for the LD’s

Highly doubt it as this seat doesn't have any territory in common with Tiverton and Honiton and is nowhere near where Foord lives.

[YL]

I would expect Labour to be the main "progressive" challenger by default in most constituencies except for those which have a clear Lib Dem history or see a strong campaign from the Lib Dems or Greens. This constituency has an idiosyncratic recent history, and is mostly in a district with some very odd local election results over the years, but I doubt the Lib Dems will try very hard here when it is next to what is arguably their hardest de facto defence. So I tend to think that Labour are the most likely to emerge as challenging the Tories here.

The other question is how safe it actually is for the Tories. Their notional share last time was under 50%, which would normally suggest "not very", but given the nature of the challenge in 2019 I'm not sure much can be read into that.

[haroldthepolitician]

I think this seat might be a hold for the tories - hard for either party to convince people to tactically vote given none actually have any tangible data to do so. Projections and what not just arent as powerful as previous election results - I imagine a good portion of claires vote might even go to the tories which we shouldn't discount but I imagine thats ofset by the depletion of the vote for national reasons.

Kinda reckoning:

Conservative - 36%
Labour - 30%
Liberal Democrat - 23%
Reform 8%
Green - 3%

[Deleted]

Claire Wright has endorsed the Lib Dems here. This will help them to be seen as the tactical choice but naturally it seems Labour would be the best option.

I think Labour will do very well in the Exeter wards, Cranbrook and the large new West Clyst development. Exmouth is a lot harder to predict. In Broadclyst and Exe Valley the Lib Dems are strong locally, the Claire Wright effect will probably have the most sway on voters in West Hill, whilst I imagine in Budleigh the Tories will stay ahead with Labour unlikely to have too much success.

[WestCountryRadical]

SOPN

Paul Arnott (LD)
Mark Baldwin (Climate Party)
Helen Dallimore (Lab)
Olly Davey (Grn)
Peter Faithfull (Ind)
David Reed (Con)
Garry Sutherland (Ref)
Daniel Wilson (Ind)

[peterl]

Reform candidate in the news for the wrong reasons.

[john07]

Jun 10, 2024 3:07:21 GMT peterl said:

Reform candidate in the news for the wrong reasons.

At least he only kicked the dog and didn’t have it shot.

[kevinf]

Jun 10, 2024 11:53:30 GMT john07 said:

Jun 10, 2024 3:07:21 GMT peterl said:

Reform candidate in the news for the wrong reasons.

At least he only kicked the dog and didn’t have it shot.

Like a good historical reference…

[binky]

Can someone explain why the Survation MRP has Reform winning this? I am truly bewildered.

[YL]

Jun 15, 2024 19:00:10 GMT binky said:

Can someone explain why the Survation MRP has Reform winning this? I am truly bewildered.

Probably because it's not handling the large Independent vote from last time very well.

[steve]

Jun 15, 2024 19:00:10 GMT binky said:

Can someone explain why the Survation MRP has Reform winning this? I am truly bewildered.

Survation has lots of weird results, e.g. the Lib Dems gaining N Dorset rather than the much more winnable Mid Dorset & Poole N snd there are lots of other examples. Pinch of salt time I think.

[nyx]

Jun 15, 2024 22:25:56 GMT steve said:

Jun 15, 2024 19:00:10 GMT binky said:

Can someone explain why the Survation MRP has Reform winning this? I am truly bewildered.

Survation has lots of weird results, e.g. the Lib Dems gaining N Dorset rather than the much more winnable Mid Dorset & Poole N snd there are lots of other examples. Pinch of salt time I think.

MRPs are never good at predicting every individual seat, only at predicting the overall seat total.

[carolus]

Jun 15, 2024 23:06:59 GMT nyx said:

Jun 15, 2024 22:25:56 GMT steve said:

Survation has lots of weird results, e.g. the Lib Dems gaining N Dorset rather than the much more winnable Mid Dorset & Poole N snd there are lots of other examples. Pinch of salt time I think.

MRPs are never good at predicting every individual seat, only at predicting the overall seat total.

In which case they shouldn't claim to! If they give you individual seat predictions, it's fair game to judge them on it.

[heslingtonian]

Jun 15, 2024 22:25:56 GMT steve said:

Jun 15, 2024 19:00:10 GMT binky said:

Can someone explain why the Survation MRP has Reform winning this? I am truly bewildered.

Survation has lots of weird results, e.g. the Lib Dems gaining N Dorset rather than the much more winnable Mid Dorset & Poole N snd there are lots of other examples. Pinch of salt time I think.

It's also weird that the Conservatives would be losing Louth and Minehead but holding Banbury and Tunbridge Wells in my view.

[Ports]

As I said elsewhere I wonder if the lack of a Leave/Remain binary which helped assign switching voters easily and provided an extra data point for every seat makes them much more unwieldy. That isn't to do with the issue in this particular seat's projection though.

[batman]

Anybody wanting to forecast individual seats should read the profiles lovingly written by members of this forum, and have at least a bit of a look at its electoral history (though without being overly influenced by longer-ago elections). This goes for pollsters as well as the rest of us.