Bath

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Jun 25, 2024 8:41:11 GMT @weld said:

This won't be the safest LD seat in the country due to tactical unwind. The safest will be Orkney & Shetland or maybe Kingston & Surbiton or Richmond Park.

Some MRPs rather implausibly show Orkney and Shetland being lost to the SNP. That feels like a result of those models breaking down for very unusual seats (they make predictions based on a model of what similar people in similar places are doing, but that breaks down for places that aren't that similar to that many places).

Twickenham may not be the safest this time, although I'm not sure either Kingston or Richmond are that much less vulnerable to tactical unwind. Labour had a couple of councillors elected in Kingston in 2014, and Richmond lost its last couple at the same time as Twickenham (2002). There are pockets of Labour strength (or at least viability) in all three, plus a fair smattering of champagne socialists and Greens.

[right]

Can anyone tell me what this Independent leaflet actually says?

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20152/

This Independent one at least speaks in sentences, although it's so dull:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20155/

Same candidate, but seems aimed at Tories:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20156/

A locally focused Reform leaflet, big on the Low Traffic Neighbourhoods:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20158/

Lib Dems:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20160/
electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20159/

Labour:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20161/

[r34t]

The Indie group on BaNES has 6 members & 3 of them are GE candidates. 2 standing against each other.

[froome]

Jul 2, 2024 21:59:30 GMT right said:

Can anyone tell me what this Independent leaflet actually says?

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20152/

This Independent one at least speaks in sentences, although it's so dull:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20155/

Same candidate, but seems aimed at Tories:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20156/

A locally focused Reform leaflet, big on the Low Traffic Neighbourhoods:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20158/

Lib Dems:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20160/
electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20159/

Labour:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20161/

The first leaflet is truly bizarre. I have no idea who this person is or what they are campaigning on, but I have received it and wondered why on earth have they bothered.

Of the second Independent, his second leaflet on your list is primarily aimed at the Lib Dems rather than the Conservatives, but I agree that his leaflets have been dull and have said very little. I know him a bit but have no idea why he has put himself forward as a candidate, apart from him having a firm belief that party politics is essentially a bad thing.

The Reform candidate is focusing on Low Traffic Neighbourhoods and should, I hope, lose her deposit here. She's annoyed a lot of people by driving round with her loudhailer.

[froome]

Jul 2, 2024 22:14:45 GMT r34t said:

The Indie group on BaNES has 6 members & 3 of them are GE candidates. 2 standing against each other.

I assume from this that either ANON or Bill Blockhead is one of the Indie councillors. Would be fascinated to know who.

[r34t]

Jul 3, 2024 4:19:06 GMT froome said:

Jul 2, 2024 22:14:45 GMT r34t said:

The Indie group on BaNES has 6 members & 3 of them are GE candidates. 2 standing against each other.

I assume from this that either ANON or Bill Blockhead is one of the Indie councillors. Would be fascinated to know who.

Sorry, me not being clear, 2 GE candidates in NES

[right]

Jul 3, 2024 4:10:34 GMT froome said:

Jul 2, 2024 21:59:30 GMT right said:

Can anyone tell me what this Independent leaflet actually says?

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20152/

This Independent one at least speaks in sentences, although it's so dull:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20155/

Same candidate, but seems aimed at Tories:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20156/

A locally focused Reform leaflet, big on the Low Traffic Neighbourhoods:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20158/

Lib Dems:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20160/
electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20159/

Labour:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20161/

The first leaflet is truly bizarre. I have no idea who this person is or what they are campaigning on, but I have received it and wondered why on earth have they bothered.

Of the second Independent, his second leaflet on your list is primarily aimed at the Lib Dems rather than the Conservatives, but I agree that his leaflets have been dull and have said very little. I know him a bit but have no idea why he has put himself forward as a candidate, apart from him having a firm belief that party politics is essentially a bad thing.

The Reform candidate is focusing on Low Traffic Neighbourhoods and should, I hope, lose her deposit here. She's annoyed a lot of people by driving round with her loudhailer.

It gets better

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20234/

[Merseymike]

Jul 3, 2024 7:02:28 GMT right said:

The first leaflet is truly bizarre. I have no idea who this person is or what they are campaigning on, but I have received it and wondered why on earth have they bothered.

It gets better

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20234/

It looks like contemporary art - it's clever, probably about that?

[Rutlander]

Jul 3, 2024 7:02:28 GMT right said:

Jul 3, 2024 4:10:34 GMT froome said:

The first leaflet is truly bizarre. I have no idea who this person is or what they are campaigning on, but I have received it and wondered why on earth have they bothered.

Of the second Independent, his second leaflet on your list is primarily aimed at the Lib Dems rather than the Conservatives, but I agree that his leaflets have been dull and have said very little. I know him a bit but have no idea why he has put himself forward as a candidate, apart from him having a firm belief that party politics is essentially a bad thing.

The Reform candidate is focusing on Low Traffic Neighbourhoods and should, I hope, lose her deposit here. She's annoyed a lot of people by driving round with her loudhailer.

It gets better

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20234/

What the ...? Where's the imprint?

[right]

Jul 3, 2024 7:39:39 GMT Rutlander said:

Jul 3, 2024 7:02:28 GMT right said:

It gets better

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/20234/

What the ...? Where's the imprint?

It might not be an election leaflet, but a it's the same style and name I've assumed it is

[froome]

Jul 3, 2024 7:58:37 GMT right said:

Jul 3, 2024 7:39:39 GMT Rutlander said:

What the ...? Where's the imprint?

It might not be an election leaflet, but a it's the same style and name I've assumed it is

It is definitely an election leaflet. It has Vote ANON written on it.

It isn''t one I have received though. Perhaps I will have that to look forward to today.

[Crimson King]

The inside cover of the King Crimson album ‘Starless and Bible Black’ has the words ‘this night wounds time’ visible on an otherwise obliterated page of text which I believe is an homage, or indeed extract, from some sort of experimental novel written by obliterating the majority of the text from another book (I could probably find which one if I could be bithered to try) The leaflet put me in the mind of that

[finsobruce]

Jul 3, 2024 9:18:48 GMT Crimson King said:

The inside cover of the King Crimson album ‘Starless and Bible Black’ has the words ‘this night wounds time’ visible on an otherwise obliterated page of text which I believe is an homage, or indeed extract, from some sort of experimental novel written by obliterating the majority of the text from another book (I could probably find which one if I could be bithered to try) The leaflet put me in the mind of that

Here you go...

www.timstinchcombe.co.uk/index.php?pge=this

[Crimson King]

Jul 3, 2024 9:27:27 GMT finsobruce said:

Jul 3, 2024 9:18:48 GMT Crimson King said:

The inside cover of the King Crimson album ‘Starless and Bible Black’ has the words ‘this night wounds time’ visible on an otherwise obliterated page of text which I believe is an homage, or indeed extract, from some sort of experimental novel written by obliterating the majority of the text from another book (I could probably find which one if I could be bithered to try) The leaflet put me in the mind of that

Here you go...

www.timstinchcombe.co.uk/index.php?pge=this

Tusen takk

[finsobruce]

Jul 3, 2024 9:28:31 GMT Crimson King said:

Jul 3, 2024 9:27:27 GMT finsobruce said:

Here you go...

www.timstinchcombe.co.uk/index.php?pge=this

Tusen takk

That's easy for you to say!

[mrsir]

Slight decrease in the Lib Dem share of the vote and majority here.

It is odd to think this had a Conservative MP as recently as 2017, any future threat of Lib Dem domination here will come from the left.

[East Anglian Lefty]

First time Labour have been second here since 1970 (though with a share of the vote that is lower than we got at any election between 1935 and 1979.)

[froome]

Jul 19, 2024 9:34:39 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

First time Labour have been second here since 1970 (though with a share of the vote that is lower than we got at any election between 1935 and 1979.)

Labour put a huge effort in here, so they will be disappointed with the drop in vote, though they achieved what they set out to - to get second place. But that is mostly due to the collapse in the Conservative vote.

Greens got their highest ever vote in Bath, just beating what we got in 2015, which is particularly pleasing when we didn't stand last time round.

On mrsir's point, the constituency was only briefly Conservative after the collapse in the Lib Dem vote following the coalition. The gathered themselves together and quickly reclaimed the seat. But your more general point is largely correct, that the main challenge to the Lib Dems may come from the left in the short-term at least. But there will always be a sizeable Conservative vote here, due to the large number of very wealthy residents, and who are not attracted by a Reform type of alternative.

Some people on the forum talked up this as possibly being the largest Lib Dem vote in the country. In the end, it was only their 15th largest of the seats they won in the south-west region, so it is certainly not invincible.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Jul 19, 2024 10:01:32 GMT froome said:

Jul 19, 2024 9:34:39 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

First time Labour have been second here since 1970 (though with a share of the vote that is lower than we got at any election between 1935 and 1979.)

Labour put a huge effort in here, so they will be disappointed with the drop in vote, though they achieved what they set out to - to get second place. But that is mostly due to the collapse in the Conservative vote.

Greens got their highest ever vote in Bath, just beating what we got in 2015, which is particularly pleasing when we didn't stand last time round.

On mrsir's point, the constituency was only briefly Conservative after the collapse in the Lib Dem vote following the coalition. The gathered themselves together and quickly reclaimed the seat. But your more general point is largely correct, that the main challenge to the Lib Dems may come from the left in the short-term at least. But there will always be a sizeable Conservative vote here, due to the large number of very wealthy residents, and who are not attracted by a Reform type of alternative.

Some people on the forum talked up this as possibly being the largest Lib Dem vote in the country. In the end, it was only their 15th largest of the seats they won in the south-west region, so it is certainly not invincible.

What drop in vote? The Labour share went up to 18.0%, as opposed to 12.5% on the notional results (and it was also up in real terms, from 7120 to 8665.) It's still a distant second and no grounds for rejoicing on its own, but they didn't fall back.

[batman]

And I am surprised to learn that Labour put in "a huge effort" in Bath. It wasn't a designated target seat, and nobody (probably not even graham!) seriously thought a Labour gain possible. Are you quite sure about that?