Bath

[graham]

Back in the 60s and 70s Labour was pretty competitive here. It very nearly won the seat in 1966 with a respectable performance at both 1974 elections.

[froome]

Jun 24, 2024 16:30:50 GMT r34t said:

Jun 24, 2024 9:30:51 GMT cogload said:

Hobhouse has been spending an awful lot of time campaigning in the villages.

All the Bath LibDems are spending time in Frome & East Somerset.

They obviously love you.

[Ron Swanson]

I wonder what the highest vote tally ever recorded by a Lib Dem candidate actually is…

As mentioned up thread, the % could be exceeded in this seat, and as it is typically a seat that turns out… the number of votes too.

[LDCaerdydd]

Munira Wilson, Twickinham in 2019 got 36,166 votes which is the highest I can find.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 24, 2024 17:31:51 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Munira Wilson, Twickinham in 2019 got 36,166 votes which is the highest I can find.

Are we counting by-elections? Because Mark Oaten got 37,006 in Winchester in 1997. But the tally you mention must be the highest in a general.

Edit: or could it be the 1993 Newbury by-election?

[froome]

Jun 24, 2024 16:21:46 GMT greenhert said:

This constituency's result could easily set the record for highest ever Liberal Democrat vote share in any constituency at a general election-at least 65%.

It won't.

The Lib Dems will certainly win easily, but I would be surprised if they even get much over 50%. There are 8 other candidates, and 4 or even 5 could save their deposits*.

*Labour, Conservatives and Greens should get over 5%. Even though we didn't stand in 2019 I would expect us to poll reasonably well this time round, while for one of their 'non-target' seats, Labour are throwing their resources into this seat. Today I saw a Labour bill board advertising their candidate as the next MP for Bath, which will have cost them a fair bit, and they are doorknocking a fair bit of the constituency. They appear to be far more active here than the Lib Dems have been.

I would imagine Reform will probably scrape 5% here, and there is also an Independent candidate, Colin Blackburn, who will poll well in the south-west of the city. He is a councillor in this area, and he and the other Independent councillor in that ward have been doorknocking every house around here, and have a lot of posters up now. So he may make 5% as well.

[hullenedge]

Jun 24, 2024 17:22:12 GMT Ron Swanson said:

I wonder what the highest vote tally ever recorded by a Lib Dem candidate actually is…

As mentioned up thread, the % could be exceeded in this seat, and as it is typically a seat that turns out… the number of votes too.

Dingle Foot's 52,048 in Dundee, 1931? Double-seater so may not count.

Stephen Ross' 38,407 in IOW, 1983.

[k9]

Jun 24, 2024 17:37:03 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jun 24, 2024 17:31:51 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Munira Wilson, Twickinham in 2019 got 36,166 votes which is the highest I can find.

Are we counting by-elections? Because Mark Oaten got 37,006 in Winchester in 1997. But the tally you mention must be the highest in a general.

Edit: or could it be the 1993 Newbury by-election?

37,590 in Newbury.

[r34t]

Jun 24, 2024 16:56:41 GMT froome said:

Jun 24, 2024 16:30:50 GMT r34t said:

All the Bath LibDems are spending time in Frome & East Somerset.

They obviously love you.

They could send a postcard if they are that keen ...

[graham]

The FocalData MRP survey has the LDs on 46% here with Labour on 22% and the Tories 18%.

[r34t]

Jun 24, 2024 19:00:37 GMT graham said:

The FocalData MRP survey has the LDs on 46% here with Labour on 22% and the Tories 18%.

I think it's a bit closer, but the order look right atm

[Foggy]

A spokesperson for Labour at a university hustings in 2019 said that the party's aim was to finish second to the LDs here. Unrealistic at that election, but not an unreasonable medium-term goal.

[steve]

Jun 24, 2024 23:19:50 GMT Foggy said:

A spokesperson for Labour at a university hustings in 2019 said that the party's aim was to finish second to the LDs here. Unrealistic at that election, but not an unreasonable medium-term goal.

[steve]

Jun 25, 2024 4:24:31 GMT steve said:

Jun 24, 2024 23:19:50 GMT Foggy said:

A spokesperson for Labour at a university hustings in 2019 said that the party's aim was to finish second to the LDs here. Unrealistic at that election, but not an unreasonable medium-term goal.

If they don't do it this time it will be tough once they're in government.

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Jun 24, 2024 17:31:51 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Munira Wilson, Twickinham in 2019 got 36,166 votes which is the highest I can find.

Peter Brand got 200 votes more than that for the Lib Dems on the Isle of Wight in 1992... and he lost!

It was a very high population seat, of course, as there is a longstanding rule that they don't have a combined mainland/island seat - and this election it goes from one huge seat to two tiny ones.

As others have mentioned, there are a few larger votes anyway - albeit 36k is impressive.

[cathyc]

Jun 25, 2024 8:00:13 GMT sirnorfolkpassmore said:

Jun 24, 2024 17:31:51 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Munira Wilson, Twickinham in 2019 got 36,166 votes which is the highest I can find.

Peter Brand got 200 votes more than that for the Lib Dems on the Isle of Wight in 1992... and he lost!

It was a very high population seat, of course, as there is a longstanding rule that they don't have a combined mainland/island seat - and this election it goes from one huge seat to two tiny ones.

As others have mentioned, there are a few larger votes anyway - albeit 36k is impressive.

If I remember the stat correctly, Virginia Bottomley once got the third highest vote for any candidate in the UK.  And lost.

[Deleted]

This won't be the safest LD seat in the country due to tactical unwind. The safest will be Orkney & Shetland or maybe Kingston & Surbiton or Richmond Park.

[steve]

The largest vote in a single member constituency that I'm aware of is the 59,589 votes that Jim Molyneux (UUP) pulled in at South Antrim in 1970.

[where2travel]

Jun 25, 2024 8:39:08 GMT cathyc said:

Jun 25, 2024 8:00:13 GMT sirnorfolkpassmore said:

Peter Brand got 200 votes more than that for the Lib Dems on the Isle of Wight in 1992... and he lost!

It was a very high population seat, of course, as there is a longstanding rule that they don't have a combined mainland/island seat - and this election it goes from one huge seat to two tiny ones.

As others have mentioned, there are a few larger votes anyway - albeit 36k is impressive.

If I remember the stat correctly, Virginia Bottomley once got the third highest vote for any candidate in the UK.  And lost.

34,904 in the Isle of Wight in 1983? That's now only the third highest in that constituency, beaten in numbers by the losing Tory in 1979 and the losing Lib Dem in 1992.

[steve]

Jun 25, 2024 10:00:06 GMT where2travel said:

Jun 25, 2024 8:39:08 GMT cathyc said:

If I remember the stat correctly, Virginia Bottomley once got the third highest vote for any candidate in the UK.  And lost.

34,904 in the Isle of Wight in 1983? That's now only the third highest in that constituency, beaten in numbers by the losing Tory in 1979 and the losing Lib Dem in 1992.

In 1979, Robert Kilroy-Silk defeated his Conservative opponent by 37,222 votes to 36,634 at Ormskirk.