Bath

[stb12]

Bath

[markgoodair]

Reform have selected Teresa Hall as their PPC.

[r34t]

Apr 15, 2024 8:28:36 GMT markgoodair said:

Reform have selected Teresa Hall as their PPC.

Do we have a list of the 'most unlikely RefUK seats' 

[batman]

my constituency would very likely be on such a list too. Bristol Central probably even worse still

[bsjmcr]

Apr 15, 2024 8:37:18 GMT r34t said:

Apr 15, 2024 8:28:36 GMT markgoodair said:

Reform have selected Teresa Hall as their PPC.

Do we have a list of the 'most unlikely RefUK seats' 

Any of the minority of seats where UKIP lost their deposit in 2015 (in England) would be a particularly thankless task! Manchester Withington comes to mind. 

On the other hand I assume the Lib Dems will still lose a swathe of deposits in leave-leaning Lab/Con marginals if they stand in every seat - without (anti)Brexit on the table, any leftwards anti-Labour swing (e.g. on Gaza) is more likely to go to the Greens I’d say. 

[WestCountryRadical]

SOPN

A.N.ON (no description)
Matthew Alford (Workers)
Dan Bewley (Lab)
Colin Blackburn (Ind)
Bill Blockhead (Ind)
Teresa Hall (Ref)
Wera Hobhouse (LD)
Dom Tristram (Grn)
James Wright (Con)

[finsobruce]

Jun 7, 2024 16:12:47 GMT WestCountryRadical said:

SOPN

A.N.ON (no description)
Matthew Alford (Workers)
Dan Bewley (Lab)
Colin Blackburn (Ind)
Bill Blockhead (Ind)
Teresa Hall (Ref)
Wera Hobhouse (LD)
Dom Tristram (Grn)
James Wright (Con)

Will Bill Blockhead have any reasons to be cheefull at the declaration? (Not his real name,obvs).

www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/local-news/meet-bill-blockhead-who-running-3570041

[willpower3]

Jun 7, 2024 16:12:47 GMT WestCountryRadical said:

SOPN

A.N.ON (no description)
Matthew Alford (Workers)
Dan Bewley (Lab)
Colin Blackburn (Ind)
Bill Blockhead (Ind)
Teresa Hall (Ref)
Wera Hobhouse (LD)
Dom Tristram (Grn)
James Wright (Con)

Presumably this is the same Matthew Alford.

researchportal.bath.ac.uk/en/persons/matthew-alford

[froome]

Colin Blackburn is one of the 2 Independent councillors for Westmoreland ward in Bath. I know him quite well, but am surprised he has decided to enter this fray.

[markgoodair]

I was in Harrogate yesterday and one of our activists was convinced that Bath would be won by the Greens? Does anyone have any idea if she is even vaguely right?

[Deleted]

Jun 24, 2024 8:32:11 GMT markgoodair said:

I was in Harrogate yesterday and one of our activists was convinced that Bath would be won by the Greens? Does anyone have any idea if she is even vaguely right?

She surely means Bristol (Central). Social media isn't everything obviously, but any Green with a shot of winning will have a serious level of engagement on their social media posts and that clearly isn't there for Bath.

[batman]

Absolutely not a Green gain. Routine LD hold. Yes there probably is some Green potential but they would have to work this seat really hard for a fair while to start achieving any of it

[r34t]

Jun 24, 2024 8:32:11 GMT markgoodair said:

I was in Harrogate yesterday and one of our activists was convinced that Bath would be won by the Greens? Does anyone have any idea if she is even vaguely right?

She isn't. Not even vaguely.

[froome]

Jun 24, 2024 8:32:11 GMT markgoodair said:

I was in Harrogate yesterday and one of our activists was convinced that Bath would be won by the Greens? Does anyone have any idea if she is even vaguely right?

Well, as a Green living in Bath, I can assure her it isn't on the cards. We do have some local strength here, but it isn't going to happen in this election. The Lib Dems will win very easily, despite their posted election communication to me quoting Wera Hobhouse as saying that "whatever happens across the country, the result here will be close between me and the Conservative candidate"! Utter bollocks, the Conservatives won't be remotely close, and the Lib Dems obviously know this, but it is the only way they know how to campaign here.

Labour have been very good at getting visibility, with a lot of posters up and quite a bit of doorknocking by the sound of it. They are desperate to get into second place here (as of course we would like to as well, but sadly not this time). The Lib Dems do seem to have been quite lethargic (but they know they will win, so perhaps not surprising).

[cogload]

Hobhouse has been spending an awful lot of time campaigning in the villages.

[steve]

Jun 24, 2024 9:30:51 GMT cogload said:

Hobhouse has been spending an awful lot of time campaigning in the villages.

And in other Somerset constituencies, it would appear.

[Strontium Dog]

Jun 24, 2024 9:17:49 GMT froome said:

The Lib Dems will win very easily, despite their posted election communication to me quoting Wera Hobhouse as saying that "whatever happens across the country, the result here will be close between me and the Conservative candidate"! Utter bollocks, the Conservatives won't be remotely close, and the Lib Dems obviously know this, but it is the only way they know how to campaign here.

I don't think you're making enough allowance here for the natural Lib Dem tendency to pessimism.

[Ron Swanson]

She'll win by 20000. An absolute cake walk.

[greenhert]

This constituency's result could easily set the record for highest ever Liberal Democrat vote share in any constituency at a general election-at least 65%.

[r34t]

Jun 24, 2024 9:30:51 GMT cogload said:

Hobhouse has been spending an awful lot of time campaigning in the villages.

All the Bath LibDems are spending time in Frome & East Somerset.