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Post by John Chanin on Jun 20, 2024 13:46:05 GMT
Why is that? Just the usual..? Culture of the Isle of Wight is that of a quite out of the way insular place. Very laid back. Most people don't leave the island much– there's a worry that a bridge/tunnel would both bring more traffic and also lose something special about the island if it's just as easy to access as anywhere in Hampshire. Why not tell them it's an obvious place to put all failed asylum seekers, and much cheaper than Rwanda, because of its isolation. I'm sure the inhabitants would rapidly decide a tunnel or bridge would be a great idea. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 20, 2024 16:13:46 GMT
Culture of the Isle of Wight is that of a quite out of the way insular place. Very laid back. Most people don't leave the island much– there's a worry that a bridge/tunnel would both bring more traffic and also lose something special about the island if it's just as easy to access as anywhere in Hampshire. Why not tell them it's an obvious place to put all failed asylum seekers, and much cheaper than Rwanda, because of its isolation. I'm sure the inhabitants would rapidly decide a tunnel or bridge would be a great idea. The famous Vix Lowthian would no doubt support that in line with Green party policy |
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Post by batman on Jun 20, 2024 20:34:24 GMT
Vexatious Vix
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 20, 2024 20:58:08 GMT
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 20, 2024 22:20:39 GMT
Hadn't you heard, it's been renamed Vixtis? Do keep up |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Jun 21, 2024 12:18:51 GMT
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Post by luckyllama on Jun 22, 2024 7:21:45 GMT
Neither Labour nor LibDem candidates are coming across particularly well at the hustings, which also explains the outcome of the primary process. For Labour there’s the additional factor that their candidate was imposed on the seat by Starmer, disregarding several experienced locals who were expecting to stand. This hasn’t gone down well in Labour ranks and I understand there have been a few resignations and some reluctance to campaign for her in the seat. So she’s not picking up the tribal support from the more active political folk who turn up to hustings and the like. The question is whether this feeds through to the wider electorate, and whether the primary campaign can make a real impact in the short period that remains. The Reform candidate appears more personable and capable than many that party has dug up and that, coupled with the polls and the demography of the seat, suggests that they might perform more strongly than some of the early polls suggest, hampered of course by their not having any sort of decent ground campaign. It’s also possible that the Tory candidate, who I confidently predict will make it to Parliament if not now then later, could come through, with the potential challenges from Labour, the Greens and Reform all falling short. |
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Post by froome on Jul 5, 2024 13:48:09 GMT
This was being reported as being a Labour gain last night, but in fact it was a fairly simple Conservative hold.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,011
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 5, 2024 19:49:15 GMT
This was being reported as being a Labour gain last night, but in fact it was a fairly simple Conservative hold. Only those who know nothing about the Island (which let's be honest is most people) would entertain that this seat could ever be a Labour gain. West has something that East doesn't, a vaguely ordinary non-coastal medium sized town. And multiple areas of proper ingrained poverty. |
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Jul 6, 2024 3:16:05 GMT
This was being reported as being a Labour gain last night, but in fact it was a fairly simple Conservative hold. I was surprised by the big differences between the two IoW seats. I had always assumed that if IoW was split into two constituencies, they would be approximately similar. But they have big differences in the 2nd to 4th places, not just the winners. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jul 6, 2024 8:17:29 GMT
This was being reported as being a Labour gain last night, but in fact it was a fairly simple Conservative hold. I was surprised by the big differences between the two IoW seats. I had always assumed that if IoW was split into two constituencies, they would be approximately similar. But they have big differences in the 2nd to 4th places, not just the winners. It is interesting that most of the modelling also didn't see much difference between the two, although as Khunanup points out there are actually quite clear differences in the types of areas in them. Maybe those didn't show up in the variables the MRPs were using. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 6, 2024 10:48:27 GMT
This was being reported as being a Labour gain last night, but in fact it was a fairly simple Conservative hold. I was surprised by the big differences between the two IoW seats. I had always assumed that if IoW was split into two constituencies, they would be approximately similar. But they have big differences in the 2nd to 4th places, not just the winners. What an enormous surprise to us all that NEITHER of them returned the promised Green with a huge majority. Were they ramping again? |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 6, 2024 14:50:13 GMT
I was surprised by the big differences between the two IoW seats. I had always assumed that if IoW was split into two constituencies, they would be approximately similar. But they have big differences in the 2nd to 4th places, not just the winners. What an enormous surprise to us all that NEITHER of them returned the promised Green with a huge majority. Were they ramping again? I don't recall anybody saying that either of these seats would return a Green this time around. Though this seat is, on paper, our number 2 target for 2029 (needing only a 6.04% swing). |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 6, 2024 15:43:32 GMT
What an enormous surprise to us all that NEITHER of them returned the promised Green with a huge majority. Were they ramping again? I don't recall anybody saying that either of these seats would return a Green this time around. Though this seat is, on paper, our number 2 target for 2029 (needing only a 6.04% swing).
The hustings convention things that were organised came out Green I think, I think Carlton may be referring to the PR from those.
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 6, 2024 16:08:01 GMT
What an enormous surprise to us all that NEITHER of them returned the promised Green with a huge majority. Were they ramping again? I don't recall anybody saying that either of these seats would return a Green this time around. Though this seat is, on paper, our number 2 target for 2029 (needing only a 6.04% swing). I was really teasing based upon past experience with Wight and Bury St Edmunds, plus the famous Vix. This time you have proved points and established a beachhead just like Reform. Well done. I did not expect that. |
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Post by batman on Jul 6, 2024 20:14:58 GMT
Vix Lowthion certainly ramped it. Even if others didn't
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 7, 2024 0:07:45 GMT
I was surprised by the big differences between the two IoW seats. I had always assumed that if IoW was split into two constituencies, they would be approximately similar. But they have big differences in the 2nd to 4th places, not just the winners. It is interesting that most of the modelling also didn't see much difference between the two, although as Khunanup points out there are actually quite clear differences in the types of areas in them. Maybe those didn't show up in the variables the MRPs were using. The notional results weren't very different between the two seats but West was clearly the less Conservative of the two seats. It does look like those may have understated the relative Labour strength of West, who must have got a heavy vote in Newport even in 2017 and 2019. but the results must reflect the strength of local campaigns, with Labour seriously targeting only West and apparently giving the Greens more or less a free run in East. Interestingly the aggregate vote for the Island doesn't show a huge change in either Labour or Green shares (and barely any in their combined share) with all the drop in Conservative share being taken up by Reform and the Lib Dems Con 20490 30.0% -26.2 Lab 19504 28.5% +4.2 Ref 12938 18.9% Grn 8623 12.6% -2.6 LD 6276 9.2% Oth 537 0.8% If you apply a reverse swing, it implies that Labour would have been on about 34% in West in 2019 and on 14% in East (the official notionals have them on around 24% in both). The truth is undoubtedly somewhere in between |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Jul 13, 2024 1:03:36 GMT
Only those who know nothing about the Island (which let's be honest is most people) would entertain that this seat could ever be a Labour gain. West has something that East doesn't, a vaguely ordinary non-coastal medium sized town. And multiple areas of proper ingrained poverty. Not really. Ryde may be coastal but doesn't feel significantly more conservative than Newport, and as for the ingrained poverty- ever been down Sandown high street? I'm not surprised by Reform getting a higher vote in East what with all the retirees in places like Wootton, Seaview, and Ventnor. But fundamentally there isn't a massive partisan difference between the two seats and the difference in results can probably be ascribed to local campaign strength. It is interesting that most of the modelling also didn't see much difference between the two, although as Khunanup points out there are actually quite clear differences in the types of areas in them. Maybe those didn't show up in the variables the MRPs were using. The notional results weren't very different between the two seats but West was clearly the less Conservative of the two seats. It does look like those may have understated the relative Labour strength of West, who must have got a heavy vote in Newport even in 2017 and 2019. but the results must reflect the strength of local campaigns, with Labour seriously targeting only West and apparently giving the Greens more or less a free run in East. Interestingly the aggregate vote for the Island doesn't show a huge change in either Labour or Green shares (and barely any in their combined share) with all the drop in Conservative share being taken up by Reform and the Lib Dems Con 20490 30.0% -26.2 Lab 19504 28.5% +4.2 Ref 12938 18.9% Grn 8623 12.6% -2.6 LD 6276 9.2% Oth 537 0.8% If you apply a reverse swing, it implies that Labour would have been on about 34% in West in 2019 and on 14% in East (the official notionals have them on around 24% in both). The truth is undoubtedly somewhere in between So the interesting thing is- look at the local election results, in the 2021 council election Labour got 2,430 votes in East and 2,330 in West. Greens got 3,379 votes in West and 1,162 in East! My estimate of the 2019 general election result would be along the lines of Con 54%, Lab 24%, Green 17% in West and Con 58%, Lab 24%, Green 13% in East. Originally Vix Lowthion was going to stand in West (where she lives) and Cameron Palin in East; they swapped the two over ostensibly because the boundaries changed from the initial proposals which had East Cowes in East (Palin is in East Cowes). But I suspect the actual reason they swapped is because Quigley was obviously going to be the Labour candidate in West and is probably their strongest figure on the island, so Lowthion went for the easier/less contested race. I think one reason Lowthion didn't succeed (and the same with people like Matthew Green in South Shropshire) is tactical voting websites pushing Labour, and if you're not especially politically engaged then you may just trust the recommendations of websites like that. But also, having to stand in East which is the weaker of the two seats in terms of natural Green support probably didn't help Lowthion either. In hindsight probably the only way the Greens could have actually managed an Isle of Wight MP from either seat is if Quigley had decided against standing and Labour found a good candidate for East and focused there, and if the Greens had run Claire Critchison (probably their one person stronger than Lowthion) in West. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 16, 2024 19:40:54 GMT
Isle of Wight ought to be a Minor County
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 16, 2024 19:42:39 GMT
Ironic that by giving the IoW protected status with two constituencies in the boundary review, the Tories just added another MP to Labour’s majority.
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