stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:01:14 GMT
Isle of Wight East
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Apr 13, 2024 22:17:13 GMT
Emily Brothers has been selected for Labour for this new seat
She's up against Joe Robertson (Con), Vix Lowthion (Green), Michael Lilley (Lib Dem), and Sarah Morris (Reform).
Brothers was the Labour candidate for Sutton and Cheam in London in 2015, unsuccessfully sought the Labour nomination for the City of Chester by-election in 2021, and currently serves on Sandown town council on the Isle of Wight. She's also transgender and blind.
My instinct is that if the polls narrow between now and the election, this seat is most likely going to be a Conservative hold, but it has potential to flip in the event of a landslide election at least on the scale of 1997.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 8, 2024 9:59:10 GMT
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 15, 2024 23:10:55 GMT
East Wight Primary's online vote is happening over the next few days www.eastwightprimary.org/Not sure how much attention voters will pay towards it, though. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
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Post by peterl on Jun 16, 2024 3:02:48 GMT
East Wight Primary's online vote is happening over the next few days www.eastwightprimary.org/Not sure how much attention voters will pay towards it, though. A bit late I would say. If this so called "people's champion" will not be known until the 19th, that provides just two weeks to campaign for them. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 16, 2024 7:06:54 GMT
I read the Labour candidate's name as Everley Brothers at first.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jun 16, 2024 7:39:19 GMT
I read the Labour candidate's name as Everley Brothers at first. you must have been dreaming and feeling a little woozy - sorry Susie |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Jun 16, 2024 10:16:50 GMT
East Wight Primary's online vote is happening over the next few days www.eastwightprimary.org/Not sure how much attention voters will pay towards it, though. A bit late I would say. If this so called "people's champion" will not be known until the 19th, that provides just two weeks to campaign for them. Think they were caught out by the unexpected election announcement and had expected to have more time. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jun 16, 2024 12:25:42 GMT
Why are people so keen to import Americanisms into UK politics?
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 16, 2024 12:31:46 GMT
Why are people so keen to import Americanisms into UK politics? Gee, I don't know but I'll take it to the next convention and ask the pledged delegates.  |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 16, 2024 15:54:12 GMT
Why are people so keen to import Americanisms into UK politics? Because they are insane |
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 16, 2024 16:57:37 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jun 16, 2024 20:42:02 GMT
Isle of Wight used to be marginal between Conservative and Lib Dem.
David Icke was accused of joining the Green Party because he wanted to be an MP.
Now both IoW seats are considered to be potential targets for Labour.
Maybe it will be a four-way marginal.
Or six-way if you include Reform and Vectis
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 16, 2024 20:43:58 GMT
Isle of Wight used to be marg8nal between Conservative and Lib Dem. David Icke was accused of joining the Green Party because he wanted to be an MP. Now both IoW seats are considered to be potential targets for Labour. Maybe it will be a four-way marginal. That's what they want you to think. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jun 18, 2024 22:39:44 GMT
I regret to inform you there has been a crime committed of the bar chart variety.
And even worse - the prime suspect is the World Famous Vix Lowthian. A sad day for us all.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 19, 2024 0:02:33 GMT
"Churches Together hustings in Brading"
Well then. I'd expect the Labour vote to be focused in Ryde and the Sandown Bay area, not surprised it's weak in Brading. However, this does feel like a sign that Labour will struggle to squeeze the Green/Lib Dem vote (as is inevitable on the Isle of Wight).
The Lib Dem candidate Cllr Michael Lilley was first elected as a Green in 2017 and as an independent in 2021.
I don't even know what to predict here. It'll be a mess, but demographics probably help the Tories. Lib Dems have had quite a bit of success recently in local elections but not sure how it'll translate at Westminster. I'll go for
Robertson (Con) 30%
Brothers (Lab) 26%
Morris (Reform) 18%
Lowthion (Green) 15%
Lilley (Lib Dem) 8%
Groocock (Ind) 3%
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Post by noorderling on Jun 19, 2024 5:41:46 GMT
I regret to inform you there has been a crime committed of the bar chart variety. And even worse - the prime suspect is the World Famous Vix Lowthian. A sad day for us all. You are going to be extremely embarrassed when Vix storms it in two weeks. Perhaps time for a poll in this thread?😄 |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 19, 2024 11:56:42 GMT
"Churches Together hustings in Brading" Well then. I'd expect the Labour vote to be focused in Ryde and the Sandown Bay area, not surprised it's weak in Brading. However, this does feel like a sign that Labour will struggle to squeeze the Green/Lib Dem vote (as is inevitable on the Isle of Wight). The Lib Dem candidate Cllr Michael Lilley was first elected as a Green in 2017 and as an independent in 2021. I don't even know what to predict here. It'll be a mess, but demographics probably help the Tories. Lib Dems have had quite a bit of success recently in local elections but not sure how it'll translate at Westminster. I'll go for Robertson (Con) 30% Brothers (Lab) 26% Morris (Reform) 18% Lowthion (Green) 15% Lilley (Lib Dem) 8% Groocock (Ind) 3% I wouldn't read anything into this vox pop (I really don't want to dignify it with the words poll or survey), it tells us nothing at all. I find the idea of a Labour victory in either IoW seat really difficult to credit, whatever happens. We shall see |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 19, 2024 12:07:55 GMT
Likewise. All through my decades long interest in psephology, I'd always regarded IoW as a monolithically safe Con seat - despite signs of a LD /Green breakthrough every now and then. The fact that we're openly talking about Labour winning (the now) 2 seats here is hard to get your head around. For prediction purposes, I've been hedging my bets and predicting 1 Con / 1 Lab.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Jun 19, 2024 12:24:12 GMT
The interesting thing is that the Isle of Wight definitely isn't overwhelmingly right wing. Tories rarely get much more than 50% across the island. But the island being disproportionately elderly doesn't help, and neither does the heavily-divided non-Tory vote. That's why I could imagine it staying Tory even if safer seats elsewhere are falling.
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