|
|
Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 12:42:17 GMT
Likewise. All through my decades long interest in psephology, I'd always regarded IoW as a monolithically safe Con seat - despite signs of a LD /Green breakthrough every now and then. The fact that we're openly talking about Labour winning (the now) 2 seats here is hard to get your head around. For prediction purposes, I've been hedging my bets and predicting 1 Con / 1 Lab. I still think I'm going to end up going for 2 Con holds |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 19, 2024 13:10:51 GMT
Likewise. All through my decades long interest in psephology, I'd always regarded IoW as a monolithically safe Con seat - despite signs of a LD /Green breakthrough every now and then. The fact that we're openly talking about Labour winning (the now) 2 seats here is hard to get your head around. For prediction purposes, I've been hedging my bets and predicting 1 Con / 1 Lab. You seem unconvinced that now is the hour for World Famous Vix Lowthion! |
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Jun 19, 2024 13:14:18 GMT
Vix lowthion - Pax Vobiscum!
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 19, 2024 13:17:55 GMT
Vix lowthion - Pax Vobiscum! That sounds like a Victorian medical advert. |
|
johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,542
Member is Online
|
Post by johnloony on Jun 19, 2024 13:37:05 GMT
Likewise. All through my decades long interest in psephology, I'd always regarded IoW as a monolithically safe Con seat - despite signs of a LD /Green breakthrough every now and then. The fact that we're openly talking about Labour winning (the now) 2 seats here is hard to get your head around. For prediction purposes, I've been hedging my bets and predicting 1 Con / 1 Lab. My formative period (1983) was one of the brief moments when it was a Con / Lib marginal, so that’s how I think of it - even though, as you say, it’s usually safe Conservative. I did often think that its marginal status meant that if it were ever split into two constituencies, IoW would naturally have one Conservative and one Lib Dem constituency ( based on the assumption that it would be unlikely to be so evenly split that both bits would be marginal for the same party). Now weave the unlikely prospect that both halves might be equally marginal, but both Con/ Lab instead of Con/LD. |
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 19, 2024 14:03:42 GMT
Likewise. All through my decades long interest in psephology, I'd always regarded IoW as a monolithically safe Con seat - despite signs of a LD /Green breakthrough every now and then. The fact that we're openly talking about Labour winning (the now) 2 seats here is hard to get your head around. For prediction purposes, I've been hedging my bets and predicting 1 Con / 1 Lab. How many decades? The IoW was held by the Liberals from 1974 to 1987 and again by the LDs between 1997 and 2001 (they lost it in 2001 when the local party ignored Chris Rennard's advice on how to run their campaign). |
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Jun 19, 2024 14:55:45 GMT
Likewise. All through my decades long interest in psephology, I'd always regarded IoW as a monolithically safe Con seat - despite signs of a LD /Green breakthrough every now and then. The fact that we're openly talking about Labour winning (the now) 2 seats here is hard to get your head around. For prediction purposes, I've been hedging my bets and predicting 1 Con / 1 Lab. How many decades? The IoW was held by the Liberals from 1974 to 1987 and again by the LDs between 1997 and 2001 (they lost it in 2001 when the local party ignored Chris Rennard's advice on how to run their campaign). Fair point. Since about 83 really. I forgot about 1987. Since then it was Tory every year except for 1997 (when there was no such thing as a safe Tory seat) and sort of emphasises my overarching point about IoW going red  |
|
|
|
Post by IceAgeComing on Jun 19, 2024 15:10:41 GMT
One thing about the Island is that a big part of the reason why its so elderly is because all of the young people are almost pushed onto the mainland - employment prospects on the Island aren't great for young professionals and the tourism sector is not what it once was; house prices are high, you effectively need a car to get around because the bus service is not great and the ferry companies are not popular because of prices. Bob Seely made a fair few promises on these things in his 2017 and 2019 campaigns and he's delivered on very few of them so I might see why people are considering other parties - if you've got kids/grandkids that can't live locally because of the above issues and the guy that promised to fix them hasn't you might go somewhere else.
It still feels odd to me that we're considering either of the seats marginal but there we are. It is worth noting that Labour have increased their vote share in the last three elections (including 2019 - admittedly the Lib Dems stood down but their endorsed Lowthion) and you are seeing them pick up in seaside towns so I don't think its impossible. I think it requires a semi-meltdown and a bit of tactical voting - and with Lowthion standing in East its clear that they'll prioritise it so Labour might struggle more here on that basis (and they appear to be prioritising West in any case).
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 19, 2024 16:53:10 GMT
The big problem for the IoW is that nobody is going to pony up for a tunnel under the Solent.
|
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,034
|
Post by nyx on Jun 20, 2024 0:14:45 GMT
The big problem for the IoW is that nobody is going to pony up for a tunnel under the Solent. Oh it would be very easy to pay for one- it's a short distance. The problem is a large contingent of residents opposing the idea. |
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
|
Post by cogload on Jun 20, 2024 5:09:51 GMT
One thing about the Island is that a big part of the reason why its so elderly is because all of the young people are almost pushed onto the mainland - employment prospects on the Island aren't great for young professionals and the tourism sector is not what it once was; house prices are high, you effectively need a car to get around because the bus service is not great and the ferry companies are not popular because of prices. Bob Seely made a fair few promises on these things in his 2017 and 2019 campaigns and he's delivered on very few of them so I might see why people are considering other parties - if you've got kids/grandkids that can't live locally because of the above issues and the guy that promised to fix them hasn't you might go somewhere else. The bus service is pretty decent across the island actually. The railway keeps breaking down but that's another issue. |
|
|
|
Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 20, 2024 5:20:03 GMT
The big problem for the IoW is that nobody is going to pony up for a tunnel under the Solent. Oh it would be very easy to pay for one- it's a short distance. The problem is a large contingent of residents opposing the idea. Why is that? Just the usual..? |
|
|
|
Post by IceAgeComing on Jun 20, 2024 8:05:56 GMT
One thing about the Island is that a big part of the reason why its so elderly is because all of the young people are almost pushed onto the mainland - employment prospects on the Island aren't great for young professionals and the tourism sector is not what it once was; house prices are high, you effectively need a car to get around because the bus service is not great and the ferry companies are not popular because of prices. Bob Seely made a fair few promises on these things in his 2017 and 2019 campaigns and he's delivered on very few of them so I might see why people are considering other parties - if you've got kids/grandkids that can't live locally because of the above issues and the guy that promised to fix them hasn't you might go somewhere else. The bus service is pretty decent across the island actually. The railway keeps breaking down but that's another issue. Perhaps I'm biased because of where my relatives there live but I wouldn't say so - at least it's gotten worse over the years. Admittedly they are in one of the smaller villages; might be different for the majority that are in the bigger towns on the Island. |
|
Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605 
|
Post by Ports on Jun 20, 2024 8:21:58 GMT
Admittedly they are in one of the smaller villages; might be different for the majority that are in the bigger towns on the Island. Yes having visited several times as a non-driver I always got the impression that if you were going from town to town it was pretty great, but for many of the villages, especially in the south and west, and to a lesser extent within towns, you had a lot less choice - they were more the 'shopper' type routes. |
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619
|
Post by ricmk on Jun 20, 2024 11:09:13 GMT
Apparently, this seat has just run a Primary process, run by the IOW East Primary Campaign.
And the winner? Drum roll.......
...oh who am I kidding? Of course you knew it would be VIX LOWTHION!
I think that Lab/LD steered well clear of this, so maybe a foregone result. But I have heard a couple of anecdotes that the Lab candidate is particularly weak here. Maybe the folks at Brading church hustings were onto something.
|
|
torten
Forum Regular
Posts: 13
|
Post by torten on Jun 20, 2024 11:48:35 GMT
The big problem for the IoW is that nobody is going to pony up for a tunnel under the Solent. Oh it would be very easy to pay for one- it's a short distance. The problem is a large contingent of residents opposing the idea. And the lobbying of the ferry companies whom would lose a license to print money. |
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,034
|
Post by nyx on Jun 20, 2024 13:05:51 GMT
Oh it would be very easy to pay for one- it's a short distance. The problem is a large contingent of residents opposing the idea. Why is that? Just the usual..? Culture of the Isle of Wight is that of a quite out of the way insular place. Very laid back. Most people don't leave the island much– there's a worry that a bridge/tunnel would both bring more traffic and also lose something special about the island if it's just as easy to access as anywhere in Hampshire. |
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,769
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 20, 2024 13:14:22 GMT
Apparently, this seat has just run a Primary process, run by the IOW East Primary Campaign. And the winner? Drum roll....... ...oh who am I kidding? Of course you knew it would be VIX LOWTHION! I think that Lab/LD steered well clear of this, so maybe a foregone result. But I have heard a couple of anecdotes that the Lab candidate is particularly weak here. Maybe the folks at Brading church hustings were onto something. Hold on, they ran a primary *after* the election has started? |
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,034
|
Post by nyx on Jun 20, 2024 13:18:09 GMT
Apparently, this seat has just run a Primary process, run by the IOW East Primary Campaign. And the winner? Drum roll....... ...oh who am I kidding? Of course you knew it would be VIX LOWTHION! I think that Lab/LD steered well clear of this, so maybe a foregone result. But I have heard a couple of anecdotes that the Lab candidate is particularly weak here. Maybe the folks at Brading church hustings were onto something. I do remember thinking a year or two ago "Labour and Green should decide to take one seat each now the Island's split, but they'd never stop being at each other's throats long enough to do so". But looking at all of the factors– Labour's candidate being okay but better suited for a different seat than this one, Labour twinning Wight East with Southampton Itchen encouraging local Labour members to campaign in the latter (in practice of course they'll just campaign in West rather than go to the mainland), and Vix Lowthion being much bigger profile than Cameron Palin... I'm increasingly convinced the local Greens and Labour have finally reached an understanding to stop attacking each other and now that the Isle of Wight is both winnable and divided, not ruin each other's chances at a seat. Possible that the Lib Dems are in on it too, I had been wondering why the LD candidate pulled out of the East Wight Primary a few months ago as there didn't seem much reason to, but this might explain it. If the opposition is united, Tories should be going down in both seats. I'm convinced, gonna call it, Isle of Wight West LABOUR GAIN and Isle of Wight East GREEN GAIN. stb12 could we get a poll here? Con, Lab, Green, Reform would be the four parties with a chance |
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,769
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 20, 2024 13:39:25 GMT
Why is that? Just the usual..? Culture of the Isle of Wight is that of a quite out of the way insular place. Very laid back. Most people don't leave the island much– there's a worry that a bridge/tunnel would both bring more traffic and also lose something special about the island if it's just as easy to access as anywhere in Hampshire. Did that happen with the Skye fixed link? |
|
