Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 10:03:35 GMT
A clutch of seats that eluded Labour in the 60s where they were nowhere again, like Bath, Hereford and Yeovil. I think Taunton too. And Devizes wasn't that far off either.
About 3,000 votes off in Taunton which the party had won in 1945 and come pretty close to winning in the 1956 by election.
And, of course, considering the political outlook of the area now, Holland with Boston! |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 23, 2024 10:12:19 GMT
It was a Labour target and highly marginal seat in both 1964 and 1966 - and indeed 1955! A clutch of seats that eluded Labour in the 60s where they were nowhere again, like Bath, Hereford and Yeovil. I think Taunton too. Those were the days when Lab and Cons were still carving up 90%+ of the vote between them, and there were few other options. Apart from what seems to have been a brief Brexit related aberration in the 2010s that hasn't been the case since 1974. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 23, 2024 10:14:21 GMT
A clutch of seats that eluded Labour in the 60s where they were nowhere again, like Bath, Hereford and Yeovil. I think Taunton too. Those were the days when Lab and Cons were still carving up 90%+ of the vote between them, and there were few other options. Apart from what seems to have been a brief Brexit related aberration in the 2010s that hasn't been the case since 1974. It was, but it is only one factor, and the diminution of the two major parties vote brings opportunities for as well as restrictions on, electoral success.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 10:14:30 GMT
A clutch of seats that eluded Labour in the 60s where they were nowhere again, like Bath, Hereford and Yeovil. I think Taunton too. Those were the days when Lab and Cons were still carving up 90%+ of the vote between them, and there were few other options. Apart from what seems to have been a brief Brexit related aberration in the 2010s that hasn't been the case since 1974. It's a shame. I wish we had primaries so Lib Dem wannabes could just choose between Labour and the Tories and have done with it. And the Greens would be in Labour. I have a friend who was high up in the university Labour club who hates the Lib Dems existing, but doesn't realise primaries are probably the best solution. I don't like a two party system as currently constituted but the US system could be good in weeding out third parties and no hopers. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 23, 2024 10:19:04 GMT
It was a Labour target and highly marginal seat in both 1964 and 1966 - and indeed 1955! A clutch of seats that eluded Labour in the 60s where they were nowhere again, like Bath, Hereford and Yeovil. I think Taunton too. Taunton fell to Labour in 1945 and was only narrowly lost in 1950. The party was also competitive in Bath at both 1974 elections - and managed second place at Eastleigh at the 1994 by election. This highlights the point that Labour has much more potential in such seats than the recent headline figures would suggest if taken at face value. The Labour vote has been suppressed by tactical voting - which is particularly difficult to reverse once the LDs manage to oust the Tories. A more recent example is Carshalton & Wallngton which had been a Tory/Labour marginal at both 1974 elections with the Alliance not gaining second place until 1983. Somehow they managed to hang on to that and went on to win the seat in 1997 - thereafter being able to crowd Labour out as the perceived anti- Tory alternative. I do wonder whether the LDs loss of the seat in 2019 - and the fact that Tom Brake is not standing again - creates an opportunity for Labour revival there similar to what occurred n Portsmouth South in 2015/2017. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 23, 2024 10:23:40 GMT
A clutch of seats that eluded Labour in the 60s where they were nowhere again, like Bath, Hereford and Yeovil. I think Taunton too. And Devizes wasn't that far off either.
About 3,000 votes off in Taunton which the party had won in 1945 and come pretty close to winning in the 1956 by election.
Labour was favoured to win the May 1964 Devizes by election but failed to do so. Massive demographic change plus boundary changes now mean the seat is well out of reach. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 10:27:09 GMT
A clutch of seats that eluded Labour in the 60s where they were nowhere again, like Bath, Hereford and Yeovil. I think Taunton too. Taunton fell to Labour in 1945 and was only narrowly lost in 1950. The party was also competitive in Bath at both 1974 elections - and managed second place at Eastleigh at the 1994 by election. This highlights the point that Labour has much more potential in such seats that the recent headline figures would suggest if taken at face value. The Labour vote has been suppressed by tactical voting - which is particularly difficult to reverse once the LDs manage to oust the Tories. A more recent example is Carshalton & Wallngton which had been a Tory/Labour marginal at both 1974 elections with the Alliance not gaining second place until 1983. Somehow they managed to hang on to that and went on to win the seat in 1997 - thereafter being able to crowd Labour out as the perceived anti- Tory alternative. I do wonder whether the LDs loss of the seat in 2019 - and the fact that Tom Brake is not standing again - creates an opportunity for Labour revival there similar to what occurred n Portsmouth South in 2015/2017. Yes. They won it in the 1973 GLC election but came nowhere since. The other thing about Sutton is that while Labour's policy on private schools and VAT may harm the party in some more middle class areas, Sutton has grammar schools and Labour wouldn't and couldn't get rid of them (I don't think?) so there's less worry about that hampering Labour in Carshalton & Wallington. The only barrier, in addition to he (somewhat anaemic now) Lib Dems is long ULEZ. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 23, 2024 10:29:38 GMT
And Devizes wasn't that far off either.
About 3,000 votes off in Taunton which the party had won in 1945 and come pretty close to winning in the 1956 by election.
Labour was favoured to win the May 1964 Devizes by election but failed to do so. Massive demographic change plus boundary changes now mean the seat is well out of reach. Labour's performance in parliamentary by elections between 1959 and 1964 was underwhelming to say the least. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 23, 2024 10:29:47 GMT
Taunton fell to Labour in 1945 and was only narrowly lost in 1950. The party was also competitive in Bath at both 1974 elections - and managed second place at Eastleigh at the 1994 by election. This highlights the point that Labour has much more potential in such seats that the recent headline figures would suggest if taken at face value. The Labour vote has been suppressed by tactical voting - which is particularly difficult to reverse once the LDs manage to oust the Tories. A more recent example is Carshalton & Wallngton which had been a Tory/Labour marginal at both 1974 elections with the Alliance not gaining second place until 1983. Somehow they managed to hang on to that and went on to win the seat in 1997 - thereafter being able to crowd Labour out as the perceived anti- Tory alternative. I do wonder whether the LDs loss of the seat in 2019 - and the fact that Tom Brake is not standing again - creates an opportunity for Labour revival there similar to what occurred n Portsmouth South in 2015/2017. Yes. They won it in the 1973 GLC election but came nowhere since. The other thing about Sutton is that while Labour's policy on private schools and VAT may harm the party in some more middle class areas, Sutton has grammar schools and Labour wouldn't and couldn't get rid of them (I don't think?) so there's less worry about that hampering Labour in Carshalton & Wallington. The only barrier, in addition to he (somewhat anaemic now) Lib Dems is long ULEZ. Labour was only 3,500 off winning there in Oct 1974. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 10:31:04 GMT
Labour was favoured to win the May 1964 Devizes by election but failed to do so. Massive demographic change plus boundary changes now mean the seat is well out of reach. Labour's performance in parliamentary by elections between 1959 and 1964 was underwhelming to say the least. Yes, although considering they lost Brighouse & Spenbrough, everything else was a bonus. Luton was a good sign of what was to come in '64. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 23, 2024 10:33:29 GMT
Labour was favoured to win the May 1964 Devizes by election but failed to do so. Massive demographic change plus boundary changes now mean the seat is well out of reach. Labour's performance in parliamentary by elections between 1959 and 1964 was underwhelming to say the least. The first year or so was poor for Labour, but the party did win seats when Macmillan's government hit choppy waters from early 1962 - Middlesborough West - Dorset South - Luton -Rutherglen. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 23, 2024 10:37:12 GMT
Labour was favoured to win the May 1964 Devizes by election but failed to do so. Massive demographic change plus boundary changes now mean the seat is well out of reach. Labour's performance in parliamentary by elections between 1959 and 1964 was underwhelming to say the least. The swings between Conservative and Labour in by-elections were remarkably 'normal' in that period (and througout the 50s) - you didn't get these huge by-election swings that we have become accustomed to (different for the Liberals of course, in Torrington, Orpington etc). Actually Labour have never been that great at by-elections historically. They picked up precious little in the 1970-74 parliament and didn't really make any spectacular gains during the Thatcher years. Their only really succesful periods for by-elections were the 1992-97 Parliament and the most recent one. The Conservatives have generally had a better time of it with great results in the late 60s and late 70s (but then nothing under Blair and just one or two under Gordon Brown) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 10:40:26 GMT
Labour's performance in parliamentary by elections between 1959 and 1964 was underwhelming to say the least. The swings between Conservative and Labour in by-elections were remarkably 'normal' in that period (and througout the 50s) - you didn't get these huge by-election swings that we have become accustomed to (different for the Liberals of course, in Torrington, Orpington etc). Actually Labour have never been that great at by-elections historically. They picked up precious little in the 1970-74 parliament and didn't really make any spectacular gains during the Thatcher years. Their only really succesful periods for by-elections were the 1992-97 Parliament and the most recent one. The Conservatives have generally had a better time of it with great results in the late 60s and late 70s (but then nothing under Blair and just one or two under Gordon Brown) Politics was just more stable in those days. The Lib Dems weren't that great at by-elections in the 2017 - 2017 Parliament and it portended their lacklustre result in 2019. They won Brecon & Radnor off a known bad apple by less than 2,000 votes, and they could have done better in Lewisham East IMO. That Parliament was just weird - Peterborough, the swing to the Tories in Newport West. It was a strange set of results all around. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 23, 2024 10:40:56 GMT
Those were the days when Lab and Cons were still carving up 90%+ of the vote between them, and there were few other options. Apart from what seems to have been a brief Brexit related aberration in the 2010s that hasn't been the case since 1974. It's a shame. I wish we had primaries so Lib Dem wannabes could just choose between Labour and the Tories and have done with it. And the Greens would be in Labour. I have a friend who was high up in the university Labour club who hates the Lib Dems existing, but doesn't realise primaries are probably the best solution. I don't like a two party system as currently constituted but the US system could be good in weeding out third parties and no hopers. So you want the worst Democracy money can buy? If we went to primaries and a 2 party locked in system, I'd probably emigrate, as both parties would end up bought and no different to each other, as is currently the case in the USA. The culture war going on over there is just window dressing to cover over the fact the Democrats and the Republicans represent the same interests and policies. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 10:43:49 GMT
It's a shame. I wish we had primaries so Lib Dem wannabes could just choose between Labour and the Tories and have done with it. And the Greens would be in Labour. I have a friend who was high up in the university Labour club who hates the Lib Dems existing, but doesn't realise primaries are probably the best solution. I don't like a two party system as currently constituted but the US system could be good in weeding out third parties and no hopers. So you want the worst Democracy money can buy? If we went to primaries and a 2 party locked in system, I'd probably emigrate, as both parties would end up bought and no different to each other, as is currently the case in the USA. The culture war going on over there is just window dressing to cover over the fact the Democrats and the Republicans represent the same interests and policies. No it wouldn't automatically go that way because we wouldn't have bullshit campaign finance legislation or Citizens United type bollocks here (hopefully). |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jun 23, 2024 10:52:31 GMT
Those were the days when Lab and Cons were still carving up 90%+ of the vote between them, and there were few other options. Apart from what seems to have been a brief Brexit related aberration in the 2010s that hasn't been the case since 1974. It's a shame. I wish we had primaries so Lib Dem wannabes could just choose between Labour and the Tories and have done with it. And the Greens would be in Labour. I have a friend who was high up in the university Labour club who hates the Lib Dems existing, but doesn't realise primaries are probably the best solution. I don't like a two party system as currently constituted but the US system could be good in weeding out third parties and no hopers. 🙄 |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jun 23, 2024 14:04:43 GMT
I think Ben Walker's assertion is verging on the delusional in this case, but it's one of those places where local voting intention has been pretty divorced from national voting intention on a large scale (to a degree only seen otherwise in places like Watford, soon to likely been joined by Gloucester, and historically Liverpool), particularly towards national Conservative voting intention. Mostly down to demographics. For the new seat there's pluses and minuses for the Lib Dems, minuses only for this incarnation of the Conservatives and (more minor) pluses for Labour. The shedding of the southern wards does take away some of the most hard core of the Conservative GE vote (albeit much that is susceptible to Reform) but also loses Hamble and middle class Hedge End which would go more towards the Lib Dems rather than this Sunakian Tories. the loss of those southern desert areas for Labour is positive, but there's little good replacing it (though the remainder of the existing seat is a bigger proportion of the new seat, which includes their stronger areas of Eastleigh town itself and Bishopstoke). The bit replacing the south is incredibly solid for the Lib Dems nationally and locally Valley Park from Test Valley which is itself effectively an extension of Chandlers Ford, which along with Hiltingbury is coming into the seat from Winchester. This is the area that ultimately lost the Lib Dems Winchester in 2019, but ironically is probably going to be some of the strongest areas for the Lib Dems in this new seat because the demographic is exactly that which is turning away from the Conservatives, but is not Reform, and Labour are beyond the pale (especially as they now have been voting exclusively for Lib Dems to represent them locally for a few years now). If this seat was Eastleigh town and Bishopstoke only (or even with Hedge End/West End to make up the numbers) Labour might have a chance, but the periphery included in the seat is toxic for them, even now. Am I right in thinking Sunakian Tories was the engineer in Star Trek: Voyager? QTWTAIN (B’Elanna Torres) |
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 23, 2024 16:40:27 GMT
I think Ben Walker's assertion is verging on the delusional in this case, but it's one of those places where local voting intention has been pretty divorced from national voting intention on a large scale (to a degree only seen otherwise in places like Watford, soon to likely been joined by Gloucester, and historically Liverpool), particularly towards national Conservative voting intention. Mostly down to demographics. For the new seat there's pluses and minuses for the Lib Dems, minuses only for this incarnation of the Conservatives and (more minor) pluses for Labour. The shedding of the southern wards does take away some of the most hard core of the Conservative GE vote (albeit much that is susceptible to Reform) but also loses Hamble and middle class Hedge End which would go more towards the Lib Dems rather than this Sunakian Tories. the loss of those southern desert areas for Labour is positive, but there's little good replacing it (though the remainder of the existing seat is a bigger proportion of the new seat, which includes their stronger areas of Eastleigh town itself and Bishopstoke). The bit replacing the south is incredibly solid for the Lib Dems nationally and locally Valley Park from Test Valley which is itself effectively an extension of Chandlers Ford, which along with Hiltingbury is coming into the seat from Winchester. This is the area that ultimately lost the Lib Dems Winchester in 2019, but ironically is probably going to be some of the strongest areas for the Lib Dems in this new seat because the demographic is exactly that which is turning away from the Conservatives, but is not Reform, and Labour are beyond the pale (especially as they now have been voting exclusively for Lib Dems to represent them locally for a few years now). If this seat was Eastleigh town and Bishopstoke only (or even with Hedge End/West End to make up the numbers) Labour might have a chance, but the periphery included in the seat is toxic for them, even now. Am I right in thinking Sunakian Tories was the engineer in Star Trek: Voyager? No. He's her Vulcan half brother. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jun 23, 2024 19:41:33 GMT
Labour's performance in parliamentary by elections between 1959 and 1964 was underwhelming to say the least. The first year or so was poor for Labour, but the party did win seats when Macmillan's government hit choppy waters from early 1962 - Middlesborough West - Dorset South - Luton -Rutherglen. Where?!?  |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jun 26, 2024 8:46:43 GMT
Stakeboard watch (Eastleigh South/Leigh Road)
LD 8 Stakeboards/:1 Window Poster
Lab 4 stakeboards
Reform 1 Window poster
The Lab constituency office was closed when I walked past it.
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