Eastleigh

[stb12]

Eastleigh

[Ports]

www.eastleigh.gov.uk/media/14503/statement-of-persons-nominated-and-notice-of-poll.pdf

Con: Sam Johnson
LD: Liz Jarvis
Lab: Daniel Shearer
Reform: Claire Fawcett
Green: Ben Parry
No Description: Russ Kitching

[cogload]

Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat.

[andrewp]

Jun 22, 2024 19:18:24 GMT cogload said:

Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat.

Lab target 327. Notional Con 52 LD 34 Lab 12

[batman]

I do not beLIEVE it.

[Khunanup]

Jun 22, 2024 19:18:24 GMT cogload said:

Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat.

LOL

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 22, 2024 19:18:24 GMT cogload said:

Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat.

Why is it that the Lib Dems struggle to replicate their council form at the constituency level?

[gwynthegriff]

Jun 22, 2024 20:30:49 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jun 22, 2024 19:18:24 GMT cogload said:

Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat.

Why is it that the Lib Dems struggle to replicate their council form at the constituency level?

Differential turnout and the "choosing a government/PM" tone of national coverage.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 22, 2024 20:34:28 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Jun 22, 2024 20:30:49 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Why is it that the Lib Dems struggle to replicate their council form at the constituency level?

Differential turnout and the "choosing a government/PM" tone of national coverage.

In this case, certainly. But the Lib Dems are and have been dominant for years at a local level. The Tories are moribund. But at Parliamentary level, they've not laid a glove on them for years.

[steve]

Jun 22, 2024 19:18:24 GMT cogload said:

Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat.

Anyone believing that can get odds of 10/1 on a Labour win.

[steve]

Jun 22, 2024 19:18:24 GMT cogload said:

Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat.

Anyone believing that can get odds of 10/1 on a Labour win.

[Khunanup]

Jun 22, 2024 20:38:09 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jun 22, 2024 20:34:28 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Differential turnout and the "choosing a government/PM" tone of national coverage.

In this case, certainly. But the Lib Dems are and have been dominant for years at a local level. The Tories are moribund. But at Parliamentary level, they've not laid a glove on them for years.

I think Ben Walker's assertion is verging on the delusional in this case, but it's one of those places where local voting intention has been pretty divorced from national voting intention on a large scale (to a degree only seen otherwise in places like Watford, soon to likely been joined by Gloucester, and historically Liverpool), particularly towards national Conservative voting intention. Mostly down to demographics.

For the new seat there's pluses and minuses for the Lib Dems, minuses only for this incarnation of the Conservatives and (more minor) pluses for Labour. The shedding of the southern wards does take away some of the most hard core of the Conservative GE vote (albeit much that is susceptible to Reform) but also loses Hamble and middle class Hedge End which would go more towards the Lib Dems rather than this Sunakian Tories. the loss of those southern desert areas for Labour is positive, but there's little good replacing it (though the remainder of the existing seat is a bigger proportion of the new seat, which includes their stronger areas of Eastleigh town itself and Bishopstoke). The bit replacing the south is incredibly solid for the Lib Dems nationally and locally Valley Park from Test Valley which is itself effectively an extension of Chandlers Ford, which along with Hiltingbury is coming into the seat from Winchester. This is the area that ultimately lost the Lib Dems Winchester in 2019, but ironically is probably going to be some of the strongest areas for the Lib Dems in this new seat because the demographic is exactly that which is turning away from the Conservatives, but is not Reform, and Labour are beyond the pale (especially as they now have been voting exclusively for Lib Dems to represent them locally for a few years now).

If this seat was Eastleigh town and Bishopstoke only (or even with Hedge End/West End to make up the numbers) Labour might have a chance, but the periphery included in the seat is toxic for them, even now.

[No Offence Alan]

Jun 22, 2024 22:17:05 GMT Khunanup said:

Jun 22, 2024 20:38:09 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

In this case, certainly. But the Lib Dems are and have been dominant for years at a local level. The Tories are moribund. But at Parliamentary level, they've not laid a glove on them for years.

I think Ben Walker's assertion is verging on the delusional in this case, but it's one of those places where local voting intention has been pretty divorced from national voting intention on a large scale (to a degree only seen otherwise in places like Watford, soon to likely been joined by Gloucester, and historically Liverpool), particularly towards national Conservative voting intention. Mostly down to demographics.

For the new seat there's pluses and minuses for the Lib Dems, minuses only for this incarnation of the Conservatives and (more minor) pluses for Labour. The shedding of the southern wards does take away some of the most hard core of the Conservative GE vote (albeit much that is susceptible to Reform) but also loses Hamble and middle class Hedge End which would go more towards the Lib Dems rather than this Sunakian Tories. the loss of those southern desert areas for Labour is positive, but there's little good replacing it (though the remainder of the existing seat is a bigger proportion of the new seat, which includes their stronger areas of Eastleigh town itself and Bishopstoke). The bit replacing the south is incredibly solid for the Lib Dems nationally and locally Valley Park from Test Valley which is itself effectively an extension of Chandlers Ford, which along with Hiltingbury is coming into the seat from Winchester. This is the area that ultimately lost the Lib Dems Winchester in 2019, but ironically is probably going to be some of the strongest areas for the Lib Dems in this new seat because the demographic is exactly that which is turning away from the Conservatives, but is not Reform, and Labour are beyond the pale (especially as they now have been voting exclusively for Lib Dems to represent them locally for a few years now).

If this seat was Eastleigh town and Bishopstoke only (or even with Hedge End/West End to make up the numbers) Labour might have a chance, but the periphery included in the seat is toxic for them, even now.

Those of us of a certain age will recall that at the 1994 by-election Labour claimed they would win by 6,000.

[manchesterman]

Jun 22, 2024 19:23:24 GMT andrewp said:

Jun 22, 2024 19:18:24 GMT cogload said:

Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat.

Lab target 327. Notional Con 52 LD 34 Lab 12

Is it possible he simply mis-spoke and meant to say Lib Dem? 

I have this down as a near certain LD gain.

[Deleted]

Labour underperform here and I'm not sure the current Lib Dem party are a good fit for the area nationally - it's not as well-healed as Winchester or Romsey. This year, Eastleigh should really be a three-way marginal, but I won't be. There's a fascinating counterfactual here IMO if Labour won the seat in the 1994 by-election.

[steve]

Jun 22, 2024 22:17:05 GMT Khunanup said:

Jun 22, 2024 20:38:09 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

In this case, certainly. But the Lib Dems are and have been dominant for years at a local level. The Tories are moribund. But at Parliamentary level, they've not laid a glove on them for years.

I think Ben Walker's assertion is verging on the delusional in this case, but it's one of those places where local voting intention has been pretty divorced from national voting intention on a large scale (to a degree only seen otherwise in places like Watford, soon to likely been joined by Gloucester, and historically Liverpool), particularly towards national Conservative voting intention. Mostly down to demographics.

For the new seat there's pluses and minuses for the Lib Dems, minuses only for this incarnation of the Conservatives and (more minor) pluses for Labour. The shedding of the southern wards does take away some of the most hard core of the Conservative GE vote (albeit much that is susceptible to Reform) but also loses Hamble and middle class Hedge End which would go more towards the Lib Dems rather than this Sunakian Tories. the loss of those southern desert areas for Labour is positive, but there's little good replacing it (though the remainder of the existing seat is a bigger proportion of the new seat, which includes their stronger areas of Eastleigh town itself and Bishopstoke). The bit replacing the south is incredibly solid for the Lib Dems nationally and locally Valley Park from Test Valley which is itself effectively an extension of Chandlers Ford, which along with Hiltingbury is coming into the seat from Winchester. This is the area that ultimately lost the Lib Dems Winchester in 2019, but ironically is probably going to be some of the strongest areas for the Lib Dems in this new seat because the demographic is exactly that which is turning away from the Conservatives, but is not Reform, and Labour are beyond the pale (especially as they now have been voting exclusively for Lib Dems to represent them locally for a few years now).

If this seat was Eastleigh town and Bishopstoke only (or even with Hedge End/West End to make up the numbers) Labour might have a chance, but the periphery included in the seat is toxic for them, even now.

Am I right in thinking Sunakian Tories was the engineer in Star Trek: Voyager?

[cogload]

To give Ben Walker his due, he was only repeating what local Labour activists were telling him.

I haven't seen any sign of either Starmer or Rayner here - but that maybe because I have missed them.

Anyway I did spot 2 LD stakeboards on Southampton Road - first time I have seen them up there in a few years...

[graham]

It was a Labour target and highly marginal seat in both 1964 and 1966 - and indeed 1955!

[Deleted]

Jun 23, 2024 9:45:28 GMT graham said:

It was a Labour target and highly marginal seat in both 1964 and 1966 - and indeed 1955!

A clutch of seats that eluded Labour in the 60s where they were nowhere again, like Bath, Hereford and Yeovil. I think Taunton too.

[finsobruce]

Jun 23, 2024 9:46:25 GMT @weld said:

Jun 23, 2024 9:45:28 GMT graham said:

It was a Labour target and highly marginal seat in both 1964 and 1966 - and indeed 1955!

A clutch of seats that eluded Labour in the 60s where they were nowhere again, like Bath, Hereford and Yeovil. I think Taunton too.

And Devizes wasn't that far off either.

About 3,000 votes off in Taunton which the party had won in 1945 and come pretty close to winning in the 1956 by election.