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Eastleigh
Mar 13, 2024 23:44:40 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 23:44:40 GMT
Eastleigh
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 598
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Eastleigh
Jun 7, 2024 17:19:56 GMT
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Post by Ports on Jun 7, 2024 17:19:56 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Eastleigh
Jun 22, 2024 19:18:24 GMT
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Post by cogload on Jun 22, 2024 19:18:24 GMT
Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 22, 2024 19:23:24 GMT
Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat. Lab target 327. Notional Con 52 LD 34 Lab 12
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Post by batman on Jun 22, 2024 19:39:22 GMT
I do not beLIEVE it.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,842
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 22, 2024 20:26:57 GMT
Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat. LOL
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Eastleigh
Jun 22, 2024 20:30:49 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 22, 2024 20:30:49 GMT
Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat. Why is it that the Lib Dems struggle to replicate their council form at the constituency level?
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 22, 2024 20:34:28 GMT
Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat. Why is it that the Lib Dems struggle to replicate their council form at the constituency level? Differential turnout and the "choosing a government/PM" tone of national coverage.
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Eastleigh
Jun 22, 2024 20:38:09 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 22, 2024 20:38:09 GMT
Why is it that the Lib Dems struggle to replicate their council form at the constituency level? Differential turnout and the "choosing a government/PM" tone of national coverage. In this case, certainly. But the Lib Dems are and have been dominant for years at a local level. The Tories are moribund. But at Parliamentary level, they've not laid a glove on them for years.
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steve
Non-Aligned
Posts: 547
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Eastleigh
Jun 22, 2024 22:05:45 GMT
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Post by steve on Jun 22, 2024 22:05:45 GMT
Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat. Anyone believing that can get odds of 10/1 on a Labour win.
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steve
Non-Aligned
Posts: 547
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Eastleigh
Jun 22, 2024 22:06:23 GMT
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Post by steve on Jun 22, 2024 22:06:23 GMT
Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat. Anyone believing that can get odds of 10/1 on a Labour win.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,842
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 22, 2024 22:17:05 GMT
Differential turnout and the "choosing a government/PM" tone of national coverage. In this case, certainly. But the Lib Dems are and have been dominant for years at a local level. The Tories are moribund. But at Parliamentary level, they've not laid a glove on them for years. I think Ben Walker's assertion is verging on the delusional in this case, but it's one of those places where local voting intention has been pretty divorced from national voting intention on a large scale (to a degree only seen otherwise in places like Watford, soon to likely been joined by Gloucester, and historically Liverpool), particularly towards national Conservative voting intention. Mostly down to demographics. For the new seat there's pluses and minuses for the Lib Dems, minuses only for this incarnation of the Conservatives and (more minor) pluses for Labour. The shedding of the southern wards does take away some of the most hard core of the Conservative GE vote (albeit much that is susceptible to Reform) but also loses Hamble and middle class Hedge End which would go more towards the Lib Dems rather than this Sunakian Tories. the loss of those southern desert areas for Labour is positive, but there's little good replacing it (though the remainder of the existing seat is a bigger proportion of the new seat, which includes their stronger areas of Eastleigh town itself and Bishopstoke). The bit replacing the south is incredibly solid for the Lib Dems nationally and locally Valley Park from Test Valley which is itself effectively an extension of Chandlers Ford, which along with Hiltingbury is coming into the seat from Winchester. This is the area that ultimately lost the Lib Dems Winchester in 2019, but ironically is probably going to be some of the strongest areas for the Lib Dems in this new seat because the demographic is exactly that which is turning away from the Conservatives, but is not Reform, and Labour are beyond the pale (especially as they now have been voting exclusively for Lib Dems to represent them locally for a few years now). If this seat was Eastleigh town and Bishopstoke only (or even with Hedge End/West End to make up the numbers) Labour might have a chance, but the periphery included in the seat is toxic for them, even now.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 22, 2024 22:58:08 GMT
In this case, certainly. But the Lib Dems are and have been dominant for years at a local level. The Tories are moribund. But at Parliamentary level, they've not laid a glove on them for years. I think Ben Walker's assertion is verging on the delusional in this case, but it's one of those places where local voting intention has been pretty divorced from national voting intention on a large scale (to a degree only seen otherwise in places like Watford, soon to likely been joined by Gloucester, and historically Liverpool), particularly towards national Conservative voting intention. Mostly down to demographics. For the new seat there's pluses and minuses for the Lib Dems, minuses only for this incarnation of the Conservatives and (more minor) pluses for Labour. The shedding of the southern wards does take away some of the most hard core of the Conservative GE vote (albeit much that is susceptible to Reform) but also loses Hamble and middle class Hedge End which would go more towards the Lib Dems rather than this Sunakian Tories. the loss of those southern desert areas for Labour is positive, but there's little good replacing it (though the remainder of the existing seat is a bigger proportion of the new seat, which includes their stronger areas of Eastleigh town itself and Bishopstoke). The bit replacing the south is incredibly solid for the Lib Dems nationally and locally Valley Park from Test Valley which is itself effectively an extension of Chandlers Ford, which along with Hiltingbury is coming into the seat from Winchester. This is the area that ultimately lost the Lib Dems Winchester in 2019, but ironically is probably going to be some of the strongest areas for the Lib Dems in this new seat because the demographic is exactly that which is turning away from the Conservatives, but is not Reform, and Labour are beyond the pale (especially as they now have been voting exclusively for Lib Dems to represent them locally for a few years now). If this seat was Eastleigh town and Bishopstoke only (or even with Hedge End/West End to make up the numbers) Labour might have a chance, but the periphery included in the seat is toxic for them, even now. Those of us of a certain age will recall that at the 1994 by-election Labour claimed they would win by 6,000.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 22, 2024 23:04:35 GMT
Ben Walker on the Britain Elects podcast made a comment that the Labour Party are quietly confident about winning this seat. Lab target 327. Notional Con 52 LD 34 Lab 12 Is it possible he simply mis-spoke and meant to say Lib Dem?
I have this down as a near certain LD gain.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 5:13:31 GMT
Labour underperform here and I'm not sure the current Lib Dem party are a good fit for the area nationally - it's not as well-healed as Winchester or Romsey. This year, Eastleigh should really be a three-way marginal, but I won't be. There's a fascinating counterfactual here IMO if Labour won the seat in the 1994 by-election.
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steve
Non-Aligned
Posts: 547
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Eastleigh
Jun 23, 2024 5:21:15 GMT
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Post by steve on Jun 23, 2024 5:21:15 GMT
In this case, certainly. But the Lib Dems are and have been dominant for years at a local level. The Tories are moribund. But at Parliamentary level, they've not laid a glove on them for years. I think Ben Walker's assertion is verging on the delusional in this case, but it's one of those places where local voting intention has been pretty divorced from national voting intention on a large scale (to a degree only seen otherwise in places like Watford, soon to likely been joined by Gloucester, and historically Liverpool), particularly towards national Conservative voting intention. Mostly down to demographics. For the new seat there's pluses and minuses for the Lib Dems, minuses only for this incarnation of the Conservatives and (more minor) pluses for Labour. The shedding of the southern wards does take away some of the most hard core of the Conservative GE vote (albeit much that is susceptible to Reform) but also loses Hamble and middle class Hedge End which would go more towards the Lib Dems rather than this Sunakian Tories. the loss of those southern desert areas for Labour is positive, but there's little good replacing it (though the remainder of the existing seat is a bigger proportion of the new seat, which includes their stronger areas of Eastleigh town itself and Bishopstoke). The bit replacing the south is incredibly solid for the Lib Dems nationally and locally Valley Park from Test Valley which is itself effectively an extension of Chandlers Ford, which along with Hiltingbury is coming into the seat from Winchester. This is the area that ultimately lost the Lib Dems Winchester in 2019, but ironically is probably going to be some of the strongest areas for the Lib Dems in this new seat because the demographic is exactly that which is turning away from the Conservatives, but is not Reform, and Labour are beyond the pale (especially as they now have been voting exclusively for Lib Dems to represent them locally for a few years now). If this seat was Eastleigh town and Bishopstoke only (or even with Hedge End/West End to make up the numbers) Labour might have a chance, but the periphery included in the seat is toxic for them, even now. Am I right in thinking Sunakian Tories was the engineer in Star Trek: Voyager?
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Eastleigh
Jun 23, 2024 6:15:52 GMT
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Post by cogload on Jun 23, 2024 6:15:52 GMT
To give Ben Walker his due, he was only repeating what local Labour activists were telling him.
I haven't seen any sign of either Starmer or Rayner here - but that maybe because I have missed them.
Anyway I did spot 2 LD stakeboards on Southampton Road - first time I have seen them up there in a few years...
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,289
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Post by graham on Jun 23, 2024 9:45:28 GMT
It was a Labour target and highly marginal seat in both 1964 and 1966 - and indeed 1955!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 9:46:25 GMT
It was a Labour target and highly marginal seat in both 1964 and 1966 - and indeed 1955! A clutch of seats that eluded Labour in the 60s where they were nowhere again, like Bath, Hereford and Yeovil. I think Taunton too.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 23, 2024 9:54:42 GMT
It was a Labour target and highly marginal seat in both 1964 and 1966 - and indeed 1955! A clutch of seats that eluded Labour in the 60s where they were nowhere again, like Bath, Hereford and Yeovil. I think Taunton too. And Devizes wasn't that far off either.
About 3,000 votes off in Taunton which the party had won in 1945 and come pretty close to winning in the 1956 by election.
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