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Post by froome on Jun 28, 2024 10:52:46 GMT
I mean, what useful message can any of these parties put out on a leaflet based on this poll? The Tories could try and target that small pool of Reform voters, but they seem pretty squeezed already and they'd have to have very good canvassing data for it to work. Very quick and dirty but you could do this...  LOL. It might even be better if the party doing that had their vote as 31.01% and an arrow pointing at the 0.01% on the chart saying 'Your vote'. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Jul 5, 2024 1:55:56 GMT
Lib Dems claiming victory here.
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Jul 5, 2024 12:09:49 GMT
The result for the main parties turned out remarkably similar to the locals.
Labour desperately ramped up their chances.
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Post by batman on Jul 5, 2024 15:34:58 GMT
Well if a bona fide poll suggested that Labour was tied for first place it seems a bit OTT to call it desperate ramping. What would you have done? Put out a leaflet on behalf of Labour saying "The poll is rubbish, only the Lib Dems can beat the Tories here" ?
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Jul 5, 2024 18:43:45 GMT
Well if a bona fide poll suggested that Labour was tied for first place it seems a bit OTT to call it desperate ramping. What would you have done? Put out a leaflet on behalf of Labour saying "The poll is rubbish, only the Lib Dems can beat the Tories here" ? They had a leaflet claiming Electoral Calculus had them ahead, long after EC put the Lib Dems ahead. It didn’t go down well. (An occupational hazard when you use one poll as the basis for a campaign, when your delivery network is so thin that you’re still shoving the thing through letterboxes, weeks later.) |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jul 7, 2024 6:26:40 GMT
www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001090In the end Calum Miller won relatively comfortably, despite the claims and counter claims on various leaflets and a somewhat erratic constituency poll. Sam Freedman in his profiling of this seat reckoned that both Miller and Harrison would be names to watch in future, irrespective of the result. Perhaps this could be a rerun on North West Durham in 1992 and that the top 3 may end in Parliament one day?
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Jul 7, 2024 7:42:56 GMT
Harrison is someone we’re likely to see again, unless the Tories lurch even further to the right.
The Labour candidate, hubris and all, I’m not so sure.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 7:45:37 GMT
Whether Rupert Harrison stands again depends on who the Tory leader is. If Tugendhat becomes Tory leader, then Harrison runs in 2029. If it's Suella, not so much.,.
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steve
Non-Aligned
Posts: 547
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Post by steve on Jul 7, 2024 7:59:14 GMT
On a different note apparently this is the first time since 1777 that Oxfordshire has no Tory MPs.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 14:09:18 GMT
On a different note apparently this is the first time since 1777 that Oxfordshire has no Tory MPs. Good. They deserved to get their clock cleaned here. Their arses were handed to them on a plate and Stockton-on-Tees has more Tory MPs than Oxfordshire LOL. |
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