stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 23:34:42 GMT
Bicester and Woodstock
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 17, 2024 10:20:55 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Apr 7, 2024 14:53:25 GMT
This is one of a significant number of seats that the Conservatives could hold on <40% of the vote due to a heavily split opposition-and not just according to constituency polls either (all 5 of which predicted the winner polling <40%), the poor reliability of constituency polls notwithstanding.
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Post by sonofkrautrock on May 3, 2024 21:07:25 GMT
Tories lost every council seat they were defending here, one to the Greens, the rest to the Lib Dems.
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Post by mrsir on May 22, 2024 17:25:39 GMT
The Conservative candidate has just tweeted this is a 3 way marginal.
Clearly not confident of the Conservatives retaining power!
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Post by sonofkrautrock on May 22, 2024 20:50:21 GMT
His best hope in this seat is that people are gullible enough to waste their votes on the very poor Labour candidate
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on May 22, 2024 20:53:46 GMT
His best hope in this seat is that people are gullible enough to waste their votes on the very poor Labour candidate Any relation to Isobel Oakeshott? |
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Post by Merseymike on May 22, 2024 20:54:06 GMT
His best hope in this seat is that people are gullible enough to waste their votes on the very poor Labour candidate Veronica Oakeshott? Hardly. It's not likely that Labour could win but why is she a bad candidate? |
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Post by Merseymike on May 22, 2024 20:54:54 GMT
His best hope in this seat is that people are gullible enough to waste their votes on the very poor Labour candidate Any relation to Isobel Oakeshott? Her sister.... |
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Post by sonofkrautrock on May 22, 2024 20:55:22 GMT
Sister.
Labour don’t have a single councillor in the constituency and Oakeshott’s entire campaign seems to comprise ramping Electoral Calculus.
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Post by Merseymike on May 22, 2024 21:00:08 GMT
Sister. Labour don’t have a single councillor in the constituency and Oakeshott’s entire campaign seems to comprise ramping Electoral Calculus. Eh? www.veronicaoakeshott.com/Pretty good, I'd say. |
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Post by sonofkrautrock on May 22, 2024 21:02:34 GMT
A virtual campaign, in mor3 ways than one. Labour will do better in Witney, and could win Banbury if they got their act together, but there’s no sign of that.
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Post by batman on May 22, 2024 21:17:42 GMT
A virtual campaign, in mor3 ways than one. Labour will do better in Witney, and could win Banbury if they got their act together, but there’s no sign of that. other than that Labour carried Banbury on its new boundaries in the local elections |
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Post by sonofkrautrock on May 22, 2024 21:30:37 GMT
A virtual campaign, in mor3 ways than one. Labour will do better in Witney, and could win Banbury if they got their act together, but there’s no sign of that. other than that Labour carried Banbury on its new boundaries in the local elections I don’t think that’s right. Even excluding the one ward not up in 2024, I’m pretty sure the Tories were ahead. Labour couldn’t even win Easington which they won last year. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on May 22, 2024 22:06:18 GMT
other than that Labour carried Banbury on its new boundaries in the local elections I don’t think that’s right. Even excluding the one ward not up in 2024, I’m pretty sure the Tories were ahead. Labour couldn’t even win Easington which they won last year. The posts by No Offence Alan in the Cherwell and West Oxfordshire threads have Labour ahead in the parts of both councils in that constituency (and the Lib Dems likewise in the parts in this one). |
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Post by sonofkrautrock on May 22, 2024 22:14:25 GMT
I don’t think that’s right. Even excluding the one ward not up in 2024, I’m pretty sure the Tories were ahead. Labour couldn’t even win Easington which they won last year. The posts by No Offence Alan in the Cherwell and West Oxfordshire threads have Labour ahead in the parts of both councils in that constituency (and the Lib Dems likewise in the parts in this one). Ah, yes, you’re right. I make it, aggregated and including The Bartons which wasn’t up this time: Lab 7924 con 7565 LD 5296 G 2156 ind 784. The point stands about Labour having some squeezing to do in Banbury. |
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Post by islington on May 31, 2024 20:29:16 GMT
There's an interesting discussion on PB about this seat, that highlights the issues that we discussed recently in relation to the adjoining - and not dissimilar - seat of Didcot.
For Bicester, there is a huge divergence in the projection of Britain Elects compared with Electoral Calculus. BE has it as a Lib Dem win with 35.1%, with the Tories on 32.6 and Labour trailing on 18.8. But EC calls it for Labour with 31.3 ahead of the Tories on 27.9 and LDs on 24.3.
The consensus on PB seems to be that BE is much likelier to be correct, largely because the LDs are dominant at local authority level, and Nick Palmer (the former MP) has been scoffed at for saying that Labour are putting in a lot of effort because they think they have a good chance of winning.
But I'm with Mr Palmer on this one. Assuming that the Lib Dems' national polling stays at 9 or 10% - and it shows no sign of shifting so far, although of course there's a long way to go -, I don't think they can possibly pack such a meagre vote so efficiently that they will poll 35% in seats like this. (In fact even 24% sounds rather high, although not totally implausible.)
So I'd suggest that the likeliest result is either a Lab win or a narrow Tory hold. Unless the Lib Dems markedly improve their national polling, I am deeply sceptical of their prospects in seats like this, and it is largely why I'm predicting only 17 seats for them when others suggest twice or thrice as many.
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Post by carolus on May 31, 2024 21:38:13 GMT
But I'm with Mr Palmer on this one. Assuming that the Lib Dems' national polling stays at 9 or 10% - and it shows no sign of shifting so far, although of course there's a long way to go -, I don't think they can possibly pack such a meagre vote so efficiently that they will poll 35% in seats like this. (In fact even 24% sounds rather high, although not totally implausible.) I'm surprised you think that it would be impossible. R&T have the notional 2019 result as 54-27-17, Con-LD-Lab, so if you think the winning line is 35% then it requires LD to put on an additional 8% in this constituency. Even with (for the sake of argument) a falling national vote share, that just isn't that much in an area that is strong locally, and wasn't targetted in 2019.
I don't think we'll win some incredible number of seats, I'd be extremely happy if we got past the SNP. We may well not win this seat (I don't even know if we're trying!) but the idea that winning seats like this is somehow impossible is just not sensible.
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Post by rogerg on May 31, 2024 22:22:40 GMT
There's an interesting discussion on PB about this seat, that highlights the issues that we discussed recently in relation to the adjoining - and not dissimilar - seat of Didcot. For Bicester, there is a huge divergence in the projection of Britain Elects compared with Electoral Calculus. BE has it as a Lib Dem win with 35.1%, with the Tories on 32.6 and Labour trailing on 18.8. But EC calls it for Labour with 31.3 ahead of the Tories on 27.9 and LDs on 24.3. The consensus on PB seems to be that BE is much likelier to be correct, largely because the LDs are dominant at local authority level, and Nick Palmer (the former MP) has been scoffed at for saying that Labour are putting in a lot of effort because they think they have a good chance of winning. But I'm with Mr Palmer on this one. Assuming that the Lib Dems' national polling stays at 9 or 10% - and it shows no sign of shifting so far, although of course there's a long way to go -, I don't think they can possibly pack such a meagre vote so efficiently that they will poll 35% in seats like this. (In fact even 24% sounds rather high, although not totally implausible.) So I'd suggest that the likeliest result is either a Lab win or a narrow Tory hold. Unless the Lib Dems markedly improve their national polling, I am deeply sceptical of their prospects in seats like this, and it is largely why I'm predicting only 17 seats for them when others suggest twice or thrice as many. I think you might be underestimating the hundreds and hundreds of seats where the Lib Dems are going to poll 2,3 or 4%. If memory serves correctly, in the by-elections in the last Parliament with just 2 exceptions (Chester and Mid Beds) the Lib Dems either won (and generally won comfortably) or lost their deposit (sometimes with an embarrassingly tiny vote). Mid Beds was of course the only real three-way by-election fight. Chester remains inexplicable. Lib Dem high command is totally disinterested in share of the national vote which is seen as a pointless goal that does not actually win seats. Hence running a "safety first" national campaign with very mild policy proposals and nothing particularly distinctive just cheery feel-good stunts. It's something of a reaction against the memories of 2010 and 2019 when frothy national polling led to fanciful aspirations of hundreds of seats. I think this seat is right at the edge of what Lib Dems might win but the the hard facts are that for Labour to win here they have to be getting as big a swing (if not more) than nationally despite not targeting it AND not having won a single council seat during the whole parliament whereas the Lib Dems have won almost everywhere in the constituency for two years running AND a modest but non-negligible chunk of the seat is in a currently Lib Dem held seat. Doesn't seem likely to me at all that Labour will leap over the Lib Dems here. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 31, 2024 22:30:14 GMT
There's an interesting discussion on PB about this seat, that highlights the issues that we discussed recently in relation to the adjoining - and not dissimilar - seat of Didcot. For Bicester, there is a huge divergence in the projection of Britain Elects compared with Electoral Calculus. BE has it as a Lib Dem win with 35.1%, with the Tories on 32.6 and Labour trailing on 18.8. But EC calls it for Labour with 31.3 ahead of the Tories on 27.9 and LDs on 24.3. The consensus on PB seems to be that BE is much likelier to be correct, largely because the LDs are dominant at local authority level, and Nick Palmer (the former MP) has been scoffed at for saying that Labour are putting in a lot of effort because they think they have a good chance of winning. But I'm with Mr Palmer on this one. Assuming that the Lib Dems' national polling stays at 9 or 10% - and it shows no sign of shifting so far, although of course there's a long way to go -, I don't think they can possibly pack such a meagre vote so efficiently that they will poll 35% in seats like this. (In fact even 24% sounds rather high, although not totally implausible.) So I'd suggest that the likeliest result is either a Lab win or a narrow Tory hold. Unless the Lib Dems markedly improve their national polling, I am deeply sceptical of their prospects in seats like this, and it is largely why I'm predicting only 17 seats for them when others suggest twice or thrice as many. I think you might be underestimating the hundreds and hundreds of seats where the Lib Dems are going to poll 2,3 or 4%. If memory serves correctly, in the by-elections in the last Parliament with just 2 exceptions (Chester and Mid Beds) the Lib Dems either won (and generally won comfortably) or lost their deposit (sometimes with an embarrassingly tiny vote). Mid Beds was of course the only real three-way by-election fight. Chester remains inexplicable. Lib Dem high command is totally disinterested in share of the national vote which is seen as a pointless goal that does not actually win seats. Hence running a "safety first" national campaign with very mild policy proposals and nothing particularly distinctive just cheery feel-good stunts. It's something of a reaction against the memories of 2010 and 2019 when frothy national polling led to fanciful aspirations of hundreds of seats. I think this seat is right at the edge of what Lib Dems might win but the the hard facts are that for Labour to win here they have to be getting as big a swing (if not more) than nationally despite not targeting it AND not having won a single council seat during the whole parliament whereas the Lib Dems have won almost everywhere in the constituency for two years running AND a modest but non-negligible chunk of the seat is in a currently Lib Dem held seat. Doesn't seem likely to me at all that Labour will leap over the Lib Dems here. That isn't necessarily in the Lib Dem's favour though. If anything it means the notional result flatters their underlying vote share here as they are already maxed out in that area and would also have won lots of tactical Labour voters who might no longer feel the need to vote tactically. Kidlington was always pretty good ground for Labour before it was moved into OxWab |
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