Bicester and Woodstock

[batman]

Jun 16, 2024 6:34:02 GMT @weld said:

Jun 16, 2024 6:31:37 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

I had wondered where you’d had your sparkling wit and ability for incisive independent thought schooled into you.

One has achieved things despite (patchy) state education rather than because of it. And it's changed your day, comprehensive are good now. 

Let's get back to Bicester, as John Major almost certainly didn't say.

It seems the more the forum learn about the Tory, the more chance they think he has of bagging this. The poll narrows by the day. 

I just think that the anti-Tory vote will be sufficiently split for the Tories to survive. Other seats are more tempting targets for the LDs and Labour. I've voted for Con hold in the poll

[Deleted]

Jun 16, 2024 9:15:18 GMT batman said:

Jun 16, 2024 6:34:02 GMT @weld said:

One has achieved things despite (patchy) state education rather than because of it. And it's changed your day, comprehensive are good now. 

Let's get back to Bicester, as John Major almost certainly didn't say.

It seems the more the forum learn about the Tory, the more chance they think he has of bagging this. The poll narrows by the day. 

I just think that the anti-Tory vote will be sufficiently split for the Tories to survive. Other seats are more tempting targets for the LDs and Labour. I've voted for Con hold in the poll

I agree. I think it's a bit like Icarus for the Lib Dems. You can try to make Oxfordshire a Tory wipeout, but you may narrowly miss out in Witney and here. I think Wantage and Henley are the kind of elitist London-facing (in the latter's case) seats where Ed Davey's Lib Dems will do well. B&W is more ordinary as I understand it.

[batman]

Bicester is yes. Woodstock is quite upmarket and its surrounds if anything more so

[bjornhattan]

Jun 16, 2024 9:45:57 GMT batman said:

Bicester is yes. Woodstock is quite upmarket and its surrounds if anything more so

There are also some very pleasant villages around the Bicester area - Islip as I recall is particularly nice. Having walked through much of this constituency, I'd say most of the scenery is pleasant if unremarkable.

With Bicester Village and Blenheim Palace I imagine this might be one of the constituency which sees the greatest number of international tourists - though I doubt this piece of trivia will affect the politics of the area much!

[Tony Otim]

Jun 16, 2024 1:45:43 GMT batman said:

Not many well-known pols have been to my school but a major exception to that is Gideon Osborne. I have no loyalty to it though not for that reason

The most famous former pupil of my old school is perhaps now one Keir Starmer... before my time though.

Although Norman Cook (Fatboy Slim) and David Walliams perhaps push him close. The latter would have overlapped with me probably (about 4 years above) but I have no memory of him there.

[Chris from Brum]

For me, Old Millfieldians are too many to mention, mostly sportspersons, but political OMs include David Heath and Ian Liddell-Grainger.

Old Jacksonians (Laurence Jackson School, Guisborough) include Rod Liddle (1 year above me) and Selina Scott.

Old Arcalians (High Arcal [Grammar] School, Sedgley) include Lorely Burt. If you thought she sounded a bit yam-yam, there's a reason for that.

[Deleted]

CON 36%
LD 33%
LAB 23%
OTH 8%

However, you could swap the Tory and Lib Dem shares around and it would still look plausible. I shall hoist by own petard if this affable fellow, Harrison loses. David Cameron has campaigned for Rupert Harrison here, and I think Cameron still has a bit of residual support in Oxfordshire despite calling the referendum. Harrison can win this seat in a nadir year, as he's moderate enough and can tie himself to the coalition's deficit reductions rather than Liz Truss's calamitous 2022 mini budget.

[YL]

Omnisis/WeThink constituency poll has

Lab 31
Lib Dem 31
Con 30
Reform 3
Green 1

LOL

[iang]

One of my daughters is voting here - as one of my other daughters has already voted in OXWAB, we will have definitely broken the General Election family duck, and may even get two winners

[cogload]

Jun 27, 2024 14:27:22 GMT YL said:

Omnisis/WeThink constituency poll has

Lab 31
Lib Dem 31
Con 30
Reform 3
Green 1

LOL

I love the smell of barcharts printed on leaflets...

[Deleted]

Jun 27, 2024 14:52:31 GMT cogload said:

Jun 27, 2024 14:27:22 GMT YL said:

Omnisis/WeThink constituency poll has

Lab 31
Lib Dem 31
Con 30
Reform 3
Green 1

LOL

I love the smell of barcharts printed on leaflets...

I mean, what useful message can any of these parties put out on a leaflet based on this poll? The Tories could try and target that small pool of Reform voters, but they seem pretty squeezed already and they'd have to have very good canvassing data for it to work.

[iain]

Fieldwork dates 6th-24th June - seems like a very long time?

[YL]

Health warning: there is some very heavy weighting in this poll.

[sonofkrautrock]

Any poll that thinks Reform are on 3% isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.

[graham]

Jun 27, 2024 15:16:53 GMT YL said:

Health warning: there is some very heavy weighting in this poll.

'And there is indeed very strong weighting, particularly on highest qualification. (Degree up, GCSE and A level down.) The Lib Dem vote is very heavily upweighted; the unweighted figures have Labour ahead with the Lib Dems in third. Of course there's no reason to think that the unweighted figures are better, but it does mean that the effective sample size is even smaller than the quoted 458.'

[Arthur Figgis]

I’ll be voting here. Will see on Monday how many leaflets have been delivered in nearly a month away. Not yet certain if/how I’ll vote.

[Strontium Dog]

Jun 27, 2024 17:44:01 GMT sonofkrautrock said:

Any poll that thinks Reform are on 3% isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.

"The Tories are haemorrhaging votes to Reform.... only the Lib Dems can beat Labour here!"

[Deleted]

While this will be one of Reform's weaker seats due to the proximity to Oxford and London commuter element, them losing their deposit is unlikely to say the least. I hope Rupert Harrison could squeeze them, but it's a trade off. As a One Nation Tory, he might limit the Lib Dem rise, but not the Reform uptick - one cannot be all things to all men. I still think Harrison is moderate enough to hold on here and that Lib Dems will win in Woodstock and Labour will carry Bicester, with Harrison coming second in both towns and winning due to split opposition. Anyway, posters here know my view of Rupert H's electability, so I won't repeat them ad nauseam.

[graham]

Jun 27, 2024 21:42:23 GMT @weld said:

While this will be one of Reform's weaker seats due to the proximity to Oxford and London commuter element, them losing their deposit is unlikely to say the least. I hope Rupert Harrison could squeeze them, but it's a trade off. As a One Nation Tory, he might limit the Lib Dem rise, but not the Reform uptick - one cannot be all things to all men. I still think Harrison is moderate enough to hold on here and that Lib Dems will win in Woodstock and Labour will carry Bicester, with Harrison coming second in both towns and winning due to split opposition. Anyway, posters here know my view of Rupert H's electability, so I won't repeat them ad nauseam.

I do wonder whether a poll in Didcot & Wantage would suggest a similar picture.

[IceAgeComing]

Jun 27, 2024 15:13:18 GMT @nw12398 said:

Jun 27, 2024 14:52:31 GMT cogload said:

I love the smell of barcharts printed on leaflets...

I mean, what useful message can any of these parties put out on a leaflet based on this poll? The Tories could try and target that small pool of Reform voters, but they seem pretty squeezed already and they'd have to have very good canvassing data for it to work.

Very quick and dirty but you could do this...