stb12
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Post by stb12 on Aug 9, 2024 10:54:14 GMT
You could consider the Scottish seats surprise holds if purely considering the previous majorities, but the SNP dynamic added in means that they weren’t really surprising and most Scottish polls roughly predicted it
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 9, 2024 11:05:10 GMT
It was decisive maybe, but the swing to Labour in Bromley & Biggin Hill was a very large one, much larger than it was here. What was more decisive in B&BH was the boundary change; Labour would have won Bromley & Chislehurst on its former boundaries. However, it's doubtful that Labour would have won Beckenham on its 2010-24 boundaries. Bromley is a very possible Conservative loss to NOC in 2026 given the demographic changes. It’s trending away from them and Refotk will likely do the Tories damage there. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 9, 2024 11:12:19 GMT
I suppose you could also count Harrow East as although it is now about the safest Conservative seat in the country numerically, most other seats that were Conservative majorities of 8-10k over Labour were lost. I'd argue the Aldridge Brownhills equivalents of this election were seats like Sutton Coldfield, Bromley, Romford, Harwich and Central Devon- seats that Labour could have won but ultimately recorded a slightly lower than average swing and didn't quite get over the line. you're not correct about Bromley. On its new boundaries, Labour needed a swing of close to 15% to taking Bromley & Biggin Hill. We achieved one of 14.4% to come close, a long way above the national average. In Central Devon, the swing was even higher at 15%, so Labour's failure to win is hardly a shock. OK, defer to your superior knowledge here. I think both seats were broadly trailed as Labour gains in the MRP polls which is probably colouring my perspective. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 9, 2024 11:13:02 GMT
It was decisive maybe, but the swing to Labour in Bromley & Biggin Hill was a very large one, much larger than it was here. What was more decisive in B&BH was the boundary change; Labour would have won Bromley & Chislehurst on its former boundaries. However, it's doubtful that Labour would have won Beckenham on its 2010-24 boundaries. Bromley is a very possible Conservative loss to NOC in 2026 given the demographic changes. It’s trending away from them and Refotk will likely do the Tories damage there. Highly unlikely with the Conservatives in Opposition at a national level in my view. |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 9, 2024 11:17:03 GMT
Bromley is a very possible Conservative loss to NOC in 2026 given the demographic changes. It’s trending away from them and Refotk will likely do the Tories damage there. Highly unlikely with the Conservatives in Opposition at a national level in my view. Much of it is good territory for the Lib Dems. |
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Post by stodge on Aug 9, 2024 11:54:56 GMT
Bromley is a very possible Conservative loss to NOC in 2026 given the demographic changes. It’s trending away from them and Refotk will likely do the Tories damage there. Highly unlikely with the Conservatives in Opposition at a national level in my view. In 1994, the Liberal Democrats broke through on Bromley Council gaining 15 seats, 11 from the Conservatives and 4 from Labour. After that election, the Conservatives retained control with 32 seats, the Liberal Democrats had 21 and Labour 7. In 1998, so in the first year of the Blair Government, the Liberal Democrats gained four further seats from the Conservatives (I was at the Plaistow & Sundridge Count on the Friday morning) meaning the Conservatives lost control with 28 seats, the Liberal Democrats had 25 and formed a short-lived administration with the 7 Labour Councillors. As for actual votes cast, the Conservatives improved from 41% to 47% while the Liberal Democrats went from 37% to 42% and Labour fell from 20% to 12%. What happened was the LDs ruthlessly targetted three or four marginal Conservative Wards (including Plaistow & Sundridge) and managed to make gains. As to what will happen in 2026, I can't hazard a guess but to assume Labour being in power means an automatic swingback for the Conservatives might not be correct. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 9, 2024 11:58:25 GMT
It's not impossible but would require very, very strong Labour performances in Bromley Common, Hayes & Coney Hall and Shortlands. Hayes is a particularly difficult gain for Labour. The capacity of the Lib Dems to make further gains appears to be very limited.
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 9, 2024 12:01:50 GMT
Highly unlikely with the Conservatives in Opposition at a national level in my view. In 1994, the Liberal Democrats broke through on Bromley Council gaining 15 seats, 11 from the Conservatives and 4 from Labour. After that election, the Conservatives retained control with 32 seats, the Liberal Democrats had 21 and Labour 7. In 1998, so in the first year of the Blair Government, the Liberal Democrats gained four further seats from the Conservatives (I was at the Plaistow & Sundridge Count on the Friday morning) meaning the Conservatives lost control with 28 seats, the Liberal Democrats had 25 and formed a short-lived administration with the 7 Labour Councillors. As for actual votes cast, the Conservatives improved from 41% to 47% while the Liberal Democrats went from 37% to 42% and Labour fell from 20% to 12%. What happened was the LDs ruthlessly targetted three or four marginal Conservative Wards (including Plaistow & Sundridge) and managed to make gains. As to what will happen in 2026, I can't hazard a guess but to assume Labour being in power means an automatic swingback for the Conservatives might not be correct. Exactly. This was an excellent post. |
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Post by londonseal80 on Aug 9, 2024 12:17:37 GMT
Highly unlikely with the Conservatives in Opposition at a national level in my view. In 1994, the Liberal Democrats broke through on Bromley Council gaining 15 seats, 11 from the Conservatives and 4 from Labour. After that election, the Conservatives retained control with 32 seats, the Liberal Democrats had 21 and Labour 7. In 1998, so in the first year of the Blair Government, the Liberal Democrats gained four further seats from the Conservatives (I was at the Plaistow & Sundridge Count on the Friday morning) meaning the Conservatives lost control with 28 seats, the Liberal Democrats had 25 and formed a short-lived administration with the 7 Labour Councillors. As for actual votes cast, the Conservatives improved from 41% to 47% while the Liberal Democrats went from 37% to 42% and Labour fell from 20% to 12%. What happened was the LDs ruthlessly targetted three or four marginal Conservative Wards (including Plaistow & Sundridge) and managed to make gains. As to what will happen in 2026, I can't hazard a guess but to assume Labour being in power means an automatic swingback for the Conservatives might not be correct. I don’t think there will necessarily be an overall swing towards the Conservatives in London, just because they are in opposition and are in fact they could be in danger of being completely wiped out in a couple of boroughs like Merton and Greenwich. Reform are going to be a factor in Hillingdon, Bexley and Bromley - the latter two I expect them to get a few councillors. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 9, 2024 13:00:12 GMT
Not much evidence of Reform putting much emphasis on winning local council seats. Assuming they do and are still a significant factor by May 2026, I think Havering and Sutton may be more likely to elect Reform councillors than places like Hillingdon and Bromley.
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Post by londonseal80 on Aug 9, 2024 13:14:22 GMT
I don’t think they will win seats in Hillingdon but could split votes in marginal wards, same with Sutton and that will help the Lib Dem’s hold the marginal wards there and or even gain wards like St Helier West.
I expect Reform to make gains in wards around Cray Valley, Welling, Harold Hill, South Hornchurch and Hainault.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Aug 10, 2024 18:00:44 GMT
It is clear that even a year after the by-election, the ULEZ issue was still somewhat salient. Not only was the Labour gain here narrow at just 587 votes, but in many outer London seats the Conservative vote share decrease was lower than average, even accounting for the Brexit backlash swings that happened in 2019, and the issue was decisive in the Conservatives holding Bromley & Biggin Hill which I predicted would be a Labour gain. Khan has the right idea. Especially as EV's are heavier tarmac killing machines and road pricing should be tailored to demand. I just had to pay £710 to tax my perfectly sensible petrol car for the next 12 months. EVs should be at least double that to compensate for the far greater damage they do to both the road surface and the environment. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 11, 2024 0:06:20 GMT
Khan has the right idea. Especially as EV's are heavier tarmac killing machines and road pricing should be tailored to demand. I just had to pay £710 to tax my perfectly sensible petrol car for the next 12 months. You taxed your car? When I had a car the government taxed it. Have you branched out into tax farming? If you're taxing your car, surely you can set yourself an advantageous rate. |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 4:21:24 GMT
I just had to pay £710 to tax my perfectly sensible petrol car for the next 12 months. You taxed your car? When I had a car the government taxed it. Have you branched out into tax farming? If you're taxing your car, surely you can set yourself an advantageous rate. Top banter. This was excellent craic. |
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