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Post by batman on Jul 23, 2024 9:40:21 GMT
It is possible that ULEZ helped depress the Labour majority in Hendon too, although I don't generally think that ULEZ has had quite the same salience in Barnet as it did in some other outer ring seats. It's interesting that the swing was much higher in Finchley & Golders Green which does not reach the outer edge of Greater London. However, of course there were special circumstances there. The swing in Chipping Barnet was not exactly awe-inspiring either.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 23, 2024 10:57:25 GMT
Chipping Barnet was one of those places where quite a lot of the swing had already happened, if you get my drift.
Villiers apparently fought a shameless NIMBYist campaign as well - I think that may well have been more of a factor than ULEZ, the salience of which has clearly declined since its peak a year ago and is only likely to do so further over time.
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Post by batman on Aug 8, 2024 19:54:52 GMT
I'm going to attempt to do a ward summary of this constituency, where unlike Chelsea & Fulham I did do plenty of work.
STRONG TO OVERWHELMING CONSERVATIVE
Ickenham & South Harefield
CLEARLY CONSERVATIVE
Ruislip Manor, Hillingdon East
NARROWLY CONSERVATIVE
South Ruislip
NARROWLY LABOUR
Hillingdon West
CLEARLY LABOUR
Uxbridge, Colham & Cowley
STRONG TO OVERWHELMING LABOUR
Yiewsley
Of course, in most wards this bears very little relation to local election results. Hillingdon West is mostly very upmarket but is much less Conservative than it looks these days (though this is a rather recent phenomenon). I tend to think Labour underperforms most noticeably in Hillingdon East, but overperforms most noticeably in Hillingdon West; visiting the wards you would never think that the former voted Conservative & the latter Labour.
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Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 21:02:38 GMT
2023 majority: Tories won by 495. 2024 majority: Labour won by 587.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 9, 2024 0:10:29 GMT
I'm going to attempt to do a ward summary of this constituency, where unlike Chelsea & Fulham I did do plenty of work. STRONG TO OVERWHELMING CONSERVATIVE Ickenham & South Harefield CLEARLY CONSERVATIVE Ruislip Manor, Hillingdon East NARROWLY CONSERVATIVE South Ruislip NARROWLY LABOUR Hillingdon West CLEARLY LABOUR Uxbridge, Colham & Cowley STRONG TO OVERWHELMING LABOUR Yiewsley Of course, in most wards this bears very little relation to local election results. Hillingdon West is mostly very upmarket but is much less Conservative than it looks these days (though this is a rather recent phenomenon). I tend to think Labour underperforms most noticeably in Hillingdon East, but overperforms most noticeably in Hillingdon West; visiting the wards you would never think that the former voted Conservative & the latter Labour. Is this based on info from the count or canvassing data? My figures mostly agree except for Hillingdon East so I'm interested to know if there is actual data to contradict them. Con lead on my figures Ickenham & South Harefield* +15% Ruislip Manor +5.5% Hillingdon East -3% South Ruislip +1% Hillingdon West -1% Uxbridge -8% Colham & Cowley -8% Yiewsley -18% *I forget sometimes that South Harefield has been added to this ward. It's not a large part of the electorate overall but not negligible either and changes the nature of the ward somewhat (though not as monolithically Conservative as it once was, Ickenham is still heavily middle class and owner occupied). I cam through South Harefield the other day as I was taking a detour to avoid some heavy traffic on the M25 and it is quite as dismal a place as I remember it. Harefield proper has some less than choice neighbourhoods but at least has the redeeming feature of a pleasant village centre. South Harefield is just a bunch of shitty council estates in the middle of nowhere. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 9, 2024 1:34:49 GMT
One has Labour narrowly ahead in Colham & Cowley and a ways ahead in Uxbridge, while a back of a fag packet calculation suggests Labour only *flipped* the latter ward in the 2023 by-election compared to the 2022 locals. I got the by-election result almost spot on, but I did not foresee Beales finally winning the seat in 2024, but it was an impressive result for him and that's for true.
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Post by batman on Aug 9, 2024 5:22:32 GMT
I'm going to attempt to do a ward summary of this constituency, where unlike Chelsea & Fulham I did do plenty of work. STRONG TO OVERWHELMING CONSERVATIVE Ickenham & South Harefield CLEARLY CONSERVATIVE Ruislip Manor, Hillingdon East NARROWLY CONSERVATIVE South Ruislip NARROWLY LABOUR Hillingdon West CLEARLY LABOUR Uxbridge, Colham & Cowley STRONG TO OVERWHELMING LABOUR Yiewsley Of course, in most wards this bears very little relation to local election results. Hillingdon West is mostly very upmarket but is much less Conservative than it looks these days (though this is a rather recent phenomenon). I tend to think Labour underperforms most noticeably in Hillingdon East, but overperforms most noticeably in Hillingdon West; visiting the wards you would never think that the former voted Conservative & the latter Labour. Is this based on info from the count or canvassing data? My figures mostly agree except for Hillingdon East so I'm interested to know if there is actual data to contradict them. Con lead on my figures Ickenham & South Harefield* +15% Ruislip Manor +5.5% Hillingdon East -3% South Ruislip +1% Hillingdon West -1% Uxbridge -8% Colham & Cowley -8% Yiewsley -18% *I forget sometimes that South Harefield has been added to this ward. It's not a large part of the electorate overall but not negligible either and changes the nature of the ward somewhat (though not as monolithically Conservative as it once was, Ickenham is still heavily middle class and owner occupied). I cam through South Harefield the other day as I was taking a detour to avoid some heavy traffic on the M25 and it is quite as dismal a place as I remember it. Harefield proper has some less than choice neighbourhoods but at least has the redeeming feature of a pleasant village centre. South Harefield is just a bunch of shitty council estates in the middle of nowhere. based mainly on canvassing returns |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 9, 2024 6:08:35 GMT
Based on my knowledge of this area I'd estimate the following leads:
Ickenham & South Harefield 12% Conservative lead
Ruislip Manor 8% Conservative lead
Hillingdon East 4% Conservative lead
South Ruislip 4% Conservative lead
Hillingdon West 4% Labour lead
Uxbridge 8% Labour lead
Colham & Cowley 6% Labour lead
Yiewsley 20% Labour lead
Worth remembering a significant part of Hillingdon West is new build (St Andrews Park) and the voting profile there and in Uxbridge ward will be relatively young which is what will have swung these wards to Labour in contrast to wards like Hillingdon East and South Ruislip which have older voter demographics.
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 9, 2024 6:11:04 GMT
Not sure how many Brunel students will have voted here given the election was outside term time. If the next General Election is inside term time that will definitely help Labour here.
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 9, 2024 6:18:25 GMT
The by-election result was the straw I was clutching before the GE; that there would be some surprise holds/gains in areas where local issues and candidates would keep the number of our losses in check. But aside from Chingford and Leicester East it wasn’t to be. I hope the previous MP will be back fairly soon.
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 9, 2024 7:56:50 GMT
The by-election result was the straw I was clutching before the GE; that there would be some surprise holds/gains in areas where local issues and candidates would keep the number of our losses in check. But aside from Chingford and Leicester East it wasn’t to be. I hope the previous MP will be back fairly soon. I'd very much also put Keighley & Ilkley in that bracket but those are probably the only three. Three more than 1997 when there were zero Conservative gains and no really surprising holds like Chingford and Keighley. |
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Post by stb12 on Aug 9, 2024 8:05:38 GMT
The by-election result was the straw I was clutching before the GE; that there would be some surprise holds/gains in areas where local issues and candidates would keep the number of our losses in check. But aside from Chingford and Leicester East it wasn’t to be. I hope the previous MP will be back fairly soon. I'd very much also put Keighley & Ilkley in that bracket but those are probably the only three. Three more than 1997 when there were zero Conservative gains and no really surprising holds like Chingford and Keighley. Also a positive difference from 1997 is holding five Scottish seats and avoiding the image of an England only party |
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 9, 2024 8:20:30 GMT
The by-election result was the straw I was clutching before the GE; that there would be some surprise holds/gains in areas where local issues and candidates would keep the number of our losses in check. But aside from Chingford and Leicester East it wasn’t to be. I hope the previous MP will be back fairly soon. I'd very much also put Keighley & Ilkley in that bracket but those are probably the only three. Three more than 1997 when there were zero Conservative gains and no really surprising holds like Chingford and Keighley. Of course. I’m in Shipley so ought to have mentioned Keighley! |
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 9, 2024 9:56:00 GMT
The by-election result was the straw I was clutching before the GE; that there would be some surprise holds/gains in areas where local issues and candidates would keep the number of our losses in check. But aside from Chingford and Leicester East it wasn’t to be. I hope the previous MP will be back fairly soon. I'd very much also put Keighley & Ilkley in that bracket but those are probably the only three. Three more than 1997 when there were zero Conservative gains and no really surprising holds like Chingford and Keighley. Aldridge Brownhills was probably the most surprising Tory hold in 1997 - most seats with a similar profile were gained by Labour at that election fairly easily. |
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Post by batman on Aug 9, 2024 9:57:54 GMT
I'd say this seat was, or rather its predecessor Uxbridge.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 9, 2024 9:59:43 GMT
I'd say this seat was, or rather its predecessor Uxbridge. And indeed Labour targeted the by-election held just a couple of months later? |
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 9, 2024 10:00:37 GMT
Part of a trio of byelection losses here in my lifetime!
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 9, 2024 10:36:35 GMT
The by-election result was the straw I was clutching before the GE; that there would be some surprise holds/gains in areas where local issues and candidates would keep the number of our losses in check. But aside from Chingford and Leicester East it wasn’t to be. I hope the previous MP will be back fairly soon. I'd very much also put Keighley & Ilkley in that bracket but those are probably the only three. Three more than 1997 when there were zero Conservative gains and no really surprising holds like Chingford and Keighley. I suppose you could also count Harrow East as although it is now about the safest Conservative seat in the country numerically, most other seats that were Conservative majorities of 8-10k over Labour were lost. I'd argue the Aldridge Brownhills equivalents of this election were seats like Sutton Coldfield, Bromley, Romford, Harwich and Central Devon- seats that Labour could have won but ultimately recorded a slightly lower than average swing and didn't quite get over the line. |
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 9, 2024 10:41:54 GMT
The Wrekin surely qualifies as the latter - I know boundary changes helped the Tories a bit but it was one of the relatively few seats I genuinely expected Labour to win but they didn't (good candidate too) You could maybe add Staffordshire Moorlands as well (especially since Labour had excellent local election results there recently)
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Post by batman on Aug 9, 2024 10:51:00 GMT
I'd very much also put Keighley & Ilkley in that bracket but those are probably the only three. Three more than 1997 when there were zero Conservative gains and no really surprising holds like Chingford and Keighley. I suppose you could also count Harrow East as although it is now about the safest Conservative seat in the country numerically, most other seats that were Conservative majorities of 8-10k over Labour were lost. I'd argue the Aldridge Brownhills equivalents of this election were seats like Sutton Coldfield, Bromley, Romford, Harwich and Central Devon- seats that Labour could have won but ultimately recorded a slightly lower than average swing and didn't quite get over the line. you're not correct about Bromley. On its new boundaries, Labour needed a swing of close to 15% to taking Bromley & Biggin Hill. We achieved one of 14.4% to come close, a long way above the national average. In Central Devon, the swing was even higher at 15%, so Labour's failure to win is hardly a shock. |
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