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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 22:00:57 GMT
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on Mar 27, 2024 15:27:18 GMT
Eh? Interesting campaign tactic.
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 27, 2024 15:31:47 GMT
So many on Twitter can't quite plaice what he's doing.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 27, 2024 15:39:06 GMT
Well, cod moves in mysterious ways
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 27, 2024 15:40:17 GMT
One of the best fish & chip shops I have known is (or was) in Ruislip Manor which is still in his seat on the final boundaries. Also the best kebab shop..
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Sg1 on Mar 27, 2024 16:16:25 GMT
Well, cod moves in mysterious ways Stop it, you're giving me a haddock Will be an interesting seat to watch. There's two theories for the next general election. One is that many of the seats that swung heavily to Labour post-brexit will experience much smaller swings, as a lot of the potential new Labour voters already switched years ago over that issue. The other is that the swing will be much more uniform, and that the By-Election result is an aberration due to the local campaign, and that this seat, and other such seats will go Labour. Would be interested to see what camp people fall into on here.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on Mar 27, 2024 16:24:52 GMT
Fishing for data I presume...
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Sg1 on Mar 27, 2024 16:44:32 GMT
I wonder who will be battered come election time
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Post by greenhert on Mar 27, 2024 19:13:44 GMT
The Conservatives continue to flounder in the polls and this seat will definitely be part of Labour's catch.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 27, 2024 19:14:05 GMT
Like everywhere else for the Tories, the chips are down
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Post by heslingtonian on Mar 27, 2024 19:15:19 GMT
Well, cod moves in mysterious ways Stop it, you're giving me a haddock Will be an interesting seat to watch. There's two theories for the next general election. One is that many of the seats that swung heavily to Labour post-brexit will experience much smaller swings, as a lot of the potential new Labour voters already switched years ago over that issue. The other is that the swing will be much more uniform, and that the By-Election result is an aberration due to the local campaign, and that this seat, and other such seats will go Labour. Would be interested to see what camp people fall into on here. I think this is generally a relatively low swing seat. I'd make Labour slight favourites as the Conservative position has worsened in the polls since the by-election and clearly ULEZ will be less of a factor but it will still probably be close. Also this isn't a great example for your theory as Uxbridge & South Ruislip was a Leave voting area and didn't swing that heavily to Labour post-Brexit largely for that reason. Seats like Altrincham & Sale West and Rushcliffe might be better examples in testing that theory. Perhaps a seat like Chipping Barnet in London although most of the London seats which still have Conservative MPs were quite strongly Leave voting and some others eg Wimbledon have the Lib Dems as the main opposition.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Sg1 on Mar 27, 2024 19:27:25 GMT
Stop it, you're giving me a haddock Will be an interesting seat to watch. There's two theories for the next general election. One is that many of the seats that swung heavily to Labour post-brexit will experience much smaller swings, as a lot of the potential new Labour voters already switched years ago over that issue. The other is that the swing will be much more uniform, and that the By-Election result is an aberration due to the local campaign, and that this seat, and other such seats will go Labour. Would be interested to see what camp people fall into on here. I think this is generally a relatively low swing seat. I'd make Labour slight favourites as the Conservative position has worsened in the polls since the by-election and clearly ULEZ will be less of a factor but it will still probably be close. Also this isn't a great example for your theory as Uxbridge & South Ruislip was a Leave voting area and didn't swing that heavily to Labour post-Brexit largely for that reason. Seats like Altrincham & Sale West and Rushcliffe might be better examples in testing that theory. Perhaps a seat like Chipping Barnet in London although most of the London seats which still have Conservative MPs were quite strongly Leave voting and some others eg Wimbledon have the Lib Dems as the main opposition. Yes, fair comments. I think the remain vote was about 43 percent, I misremembered it being closer in this seat. Regarding rushcliffe, I recall the yougov MRP from February projecting that seat to be closer than you might expect, and I recall the local elections being surprisingly good for the Conservatives here recently, although that might be down to a strong local organisation.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Sg1 on Mar 27, 2024 19:28:04 GMT
Like everywhere else for the Tories, the chips are down I'm sure they'll be plenty of salt to go around after the results.
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Post by batman on Mar 27, 2024 19:56:03 GMT
Stop it, you're giving me a haddock Will be an interesting seat to watch. There's two theories for the next general election. One is that many of the seats that swung heavily to Labour post-brexit will experience much smaller swings, as a lot of the potential new Labour voters already switched years ago over that issue. The other is that the swing will be much more uniform, and that the By-Election result is an aberration due to the local campaign, and that this seat, and other such seats will go Labour. Would be interested to see what camp people fall into on here. I think this is generally a relatively low swing seat. I'd make Labour slight favourites as the Conservative position has worsened in the polls since the by-election and clearly ULEZ will be less of a factor but it will still probably be close. Also this isn't a great example for your theory as Uxbridge & South Ruislip was a Leave voting area and didn't swing that heavily to Labour post-Brexit largely for that reason. Seats like Altrincham & Sale West and Rushcliffe might be better examples in testing that theory. Perhaps a seat like Chipping Barnet in London although most of the London seats which still have Conservative MPs were quite strongly Leave voting and some others eg Wimbledon have the Lib Dems as the main opposition. I think that this is a good assessment. Not that you are the sole person who can claim that
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 10, 2024 17:39:12 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | Con | Lab | Lib | | | | | | | 1945 | 36.1% | 50.1% | 13.8% | | 1950 | 43.6% | 46.7% | 9.7% | | 1951 | 47.8% | 48.3% | 3.9% | | 1955 | 50.8% | 49.2% | | | 1959 | 46.6% | 40.2% | 13.2% | | 1964 | 43.8% | 40.2% | 16.0% | | 1966 | 43.5% | 43.8% | 12.7% | |
| Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | 1970 | 49.7% | 40.4% | 9.9% | | 1974 | 42.4% | 36.3% | 21.1% | | 1974 | 44.4% | 38.8% | 16.6% | | 1979 | 52.9% | 34.0% | 11.9% | 1.2% | 1983 | 53.6% | 20.0% | 26.3% | | 1987 | 56.1% | 21.4% | 21.7% | | 1992 | 55.9% | 27.4% | 15.0% | |
| Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/ BXP | Grn | NF/BNP | | | | | | | | 1997 | 43.3% | 41.6% | 12.4% | 2.0% | | | 2001 | 45.6% | 39.5% | 12.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2005 | 46.1% | 29.7% | 17.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2010 | 50.1% | 23.3% | 18.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 2015 | 51.3% | 25.9% | 4.7% | 13.8% | 3.2% | | 2017 | 51.6% | 39.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | | 2019 | 52.6% | 37.0% | 6.6% | 0.7% | 2.6% | |
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Post by heslingtonian on May 10, 2024 18:43:41 GMT
The Hillingdon East by-election on 2 May didn't bode especially well for Labour's chances of finally winning here. Conservative hold.
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Post by Merseymike on May 10, 2024 18:49:52 GMT
The Hillingdon East by-election on 2 May didn't bode especially well for Labour's chances of finally winning here. Conservative hold. Thing is, it's a Conservative ward. And even perhaps Labour can win, it's going to very close. Uxbridge couldn't win in 1997 or 2001.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 10, 2024 18:55:05 GMT
The Hillingdon East by-election on 2 May didn't bode especially well for Labour's chances of finally winning here. Conservative hold. Thing is, it's a Conservative ward. And even perhaps Labour can win, it's going to very close. Uxbridge couldn't win in 1997 or 2001. That's a bit of a circular argument. The fact it is a Conservative ward now is the point - it isn't one of their traditional strongholds within the seat - far from it. This ward would clearly have voted Labour in 1997 and 2001. That said I think one can read too much into local election results, whether that be in Harpenden & Berkhamsted or here. If the polls are anything like replicated at the general election, Labour should finally break their long losing streak here.
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Post by Merseymike on May 10, 2024 19:06:19 GMT
Thing is, it's a Conservative ward. And even perhaps Labour can win, it's going to very close. Uxbridge couldn't win in 1997 or 2001. That's a bit of a circular argument. The fact it is a Conservative ward now is the point - it isn't one of their traditional strongholds within the seat - far from it. This ward would clearly have voted Labour in 1997 and 2001. That said I think one can read too much into local election results, whether that be in Harpenden & Berkhamsted or here. If the polls are anything like replicated at the general election, Labour should finally break their long losing streak here. It's a good point - the 1998 ward just about won, all the rest are Conservatives. Though the votes are still Conservative.
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Post by borisminor on May 10, 2024 19:12:14 GMT
Thing is, it's a Conservative ward. And even perhaps Labour can win, it's going to very close. Uxbridge couldn't win in 1997 or 2001. That's a bit of a circular argument. The fact it is a Conservative ward now is the point - it isn't one of their traditional strongholds within the seat - far from it. This ward would clearly have voted Labour in 1997 and 2001. That said I think one can read too much into local election results, whether that be in Harpenden & Berkhamsted or here. If the polls are anything like replicated at the general election, Labour should finally break their long losing streak here. How far historically have London mayoral elections reflected the London result at the general election following. Was proportional swing within London reflected in 2000 vs 2001, 2004 vs 2005, and 2008 vs 2010? If it is then it is easy to imagine this and other seats in outer London which would have gone Labour on a uniform swing staying Conservative.
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