Uxbridge and South Ruislip

[stb12]

Uxbridge and South Ruislip

[cogload]

Eh? Interesting campaign tactic.

[timrollpickering]

So many on Twitter can't quite plaice what he's doing.

[jamesdoyle]

Well, cod moves in mysterious ways

[Pete Whitehead]

One of the best fish & chip shops I have known is (or was) in Ruislip Manor which is still in his seat on the final boundaries. Also the best kebab shop..

[Sg1]

Mar 27, 2024 15:39:06 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Well, cod moves in mysterious ways

Stop it, you're giving me a haddock

Will be an interesting seat to watch. There's two theories for the next general election. One is that many of the seats that swung heavily to Labour post-brexit will experience much smaller swings, as a lot of the potential new Labour voters already switched years ago over that issue. The other is that the swing will be much more uniform, and that the By-Election result is an aberration due to the local campaign, and that this seat, and other such seats will go Labour. Would be interested to see what camp people fall into on here.

[cogload]

Fishing for data I presume...

[Sg1]

I wonder who will be battered come election time

[greenhert]

The Conservatives continue to flounder in the polls and this seat will definitely be part of Labour's catch.

[stb12]

Like everywhere else for the Tories, the chips are down

[heslingtonian]

Mar 27, 2024 16:16:25 GMT Sg1 said:

Mar 27, 2024 15:39:06 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Well, cod moves in mysterious ways

Stop it, you're giving me a haddock

Will be an interesting seat to watch. There's two theories for the next general election. One is that many of the seats that swung heavily to Labour post-brexit will experience much smaller swings, as a lot of the potential new Labour voters already switched years ago over that issue. The other is that the swing will be much more uniform, and that the By-Election result is an aberration due to the local campaign, and that this seat, and other such seats will go Labour. Would be interested to see what camp people fall into on here.

I think this is generally a relatively low swing seat. I'd make Labour slight favourites as the Conservative position has worsened in the polls since the by-election and clearly ULEZ will be less of a factor but it will still probably be close. Also this isn't a great example for your theory as Uxbridge & South Ruislip was a Leave voting area and didn't swing that heavily to Labour post-Brexit largely for that reason. Seats like Altrincham & Sale West and Rushcliffe might be better examples in testing that theory. Perhaps a seat like Chipping Barnet in London although most of the London seats which still have Conservative MPs were quite strongly Leave voting and some others eg Wimbledon have the Lib Dems as the main opposition.

[Sg1]

Mar 27, 2024 19:15:19 GMT heslingtonian said:

Mar 27, 2024 16:16:25 GMT Sg1 said:

Stop it, you're giving me a haddock

Will be an interesting seat to watch. There's two theories for the next general election. One is that many of the seats that swung heavily to Labour post-brexit will experience much smaller swings, as a lot of the potential new Labour voters already switched years ago over that issue. The other is that the swing will be much more uniform, and that the By-Election result is an aberration due to the local campaign, and that this seat, and other such seats will go Labour. Would be interested to see what camp people fall into on here.

I think this is generally a relatively low swing seat. I'd make Labour slight favourites as the Conservative position has worsened in the polls since the by-election and clearly ULEZ will be less of a factor but it will still probably be close. Also this isn't a great example for your theory as Uxbridge & South Ruislip was a Leave voting area and didn't swing that heavily to Labour post-Brexit largely for that reason. Seats like Altrincham & Sale West and Rushcliffe might be better examples in testing that theory. Perhaps a seat like Chipping Barnet in London although most of the London seats which still have Conservative MPs were quite strongly Leave voting and some others eg Wimbledon have the Lib Dems as the main opposition.

Yes, fair comments. I think the remain vote was about 43 percent, I misremembered it being closer in this seat. Regarding rushcliffe, I recall the yougov MRP from February projecting that seat to be closer than you might expect, and I recall the local elections being surprisingly good for the Conservatives here recently, although that might be down to a strong local organisation.

[Sg1]

Mar 27, 2024 19:14:05 GMT stb12 said:

Like everywhere else for the Tories, the chips are down

I'm sure they'll be plenty of salt to go around after the results.

[batman]

Mar 27, 2024 19:15:19 GMT heslingtonian said:

Mar 27, 2024 16:16:25 GMT Sg1 said:

Stop it, you're giving me a haddock

Will be an interesting seat to watch. There's two theories for the next general election. One is that many of the seats that swung heavily to Labour post-brexit will experience much smaller swings, as a lot of the potential new Labour voters already switched years ago over that issue. The other is that the swing will be much more uniform, and that the By-Election result is an aberration due to the local campaign, and that this seat, and other such seats will go Labour. Would be interested to see what camp people fall into on here.

I think this is generally a relatively low swing seat. I'd make Labour slight favourites as the Conservative position has worsened in the polls since the by-election and clearly ULEZ will be less of a factor but it will still probably be close. Also this isn't a great example for your theory as Uxbridge & South Ruislip was a Leave voting area and didn't swing that heavily to Labour post-Brexit largely for that reason. Seats like Altrincham & Sale West and Rushcliffe might be better examples in testing that theory. Perhaps a seat like Chipping Barnet in London although most of the London seats which still have Conservative MPs were quite strongly Leave voting and some others eg Wimbledon have the Lib Dems as the main opposition.

I think that this is a good assessment. Not that you are the sole person who can claim that

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

	Con	Lab	Lib
1945	36.1%	50.1%	13.8%
1950	43.6%	46.7%	9.7%
1951	47.8%	48.3%	3.9%
1955	50.8%	49.2%
1959	46.6%	40.2%	13.2%
1964	43.8%	40.2%	16.0%
1966	43.5%	43.8%	12.7%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP
1970	49.7%	40.4%	9.9%
1974	42.4%	36.3%	21.1%
1974	44.4%	38.8%	16.6%
1979	52.9%	34.0%	11.9%	1.2%
1983	53.6%	20.0%	26.3%
1987	56.1%	21.4%	21.7%
1992	55.9%	27.4%	15.0%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP/ BXP	Grn	NF/BNP
1997	43.3%	41.6%	12.4%	2.0%
2001	45.6%	39.5%	12.4%	1.2%	0.4%	0.4%
2005	46.1%	29.7%	17.6%	1.5%	2.0%	2.7%
2010	50.1%	23.3%	18.4%	2.7%	1.1%	3.0%
2015	51.3%	25.9%	4.7%	13.8%	3.2%
2017	51.6%	39.1%	4.1%	3.3%	2.0%
2019	52.6%	37.0%	6.6%	0.7%	2.6%

[heslingtonian]

The Hillingdon East by-election on 2 May didn't bode especially well for Labour's chances of finally winning here. Conservative hold.

[Merseymike]

May 10, 2024 18:43:41 GMT heslingtonian said:

The Hillingdon East by-election on 2 May didn't bode especially well for Labour's chances of finally winning here. Conservative hold.

Thing is, it's a Conservative ward. And even perhaps Labour can win, it's going to very close. Uxbridge couldn't win in 1997 or 2001.

[Pete Whitehead]

May 10, 2024 18:49:52 GMT Merseymike said:

May 10, 2024 18:43:41 GMT heslingtonian said:

The Hillingdon East by-election on 2 May didn't bode especially well for Labour's chances of finally winning here. Conservative hold.

Thing is, it's a Conservative ward. And even perhaps Labour can win, it's going to very close. Uxbridge couldn't win in 1997 or 2001.

That's a bit of a circular argument. The fact it is a Conservative ward now is the point - it isn't one of their traditional strongholds within the seat - far from it. This ward would clearly have voted Labour in 1997 and 2001.
That said I think one can read too much into local election results, whether that be in Harpenden & Berkhamsted or here. If the polls are anything like replicated at the general election, Labour should finally break their long losing streak here.

[Merseymike]

May 10, 2024 18:55:05 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

May 10, 2024 18:49:52 GMT Merseymike said:

Thing is, it's a Conservative ward. And even perhaps Labour can win, it's going to very close. Uxbridge couldn't win in 1997 or 2001.

That's a bit of a circular argument. The fact it is a Conservative ward now is the point - it isn't one of their traditional strongholds within the seat - far from it. This ward would clearly have voted Labour in 1997 and 2001.
That said I think one can read too much into local election results, whether that be in Harpenden & Berkhamsted or here. If the polls are anything like replicated at the general election, Labour should finally break their long losing streak here.

It's a good point - the 1998 ward just about won, all the rest are Conservatives. Though the votes are still Conservative.

[borisminor]

May 10, 2024 18:55:05 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

May 10, 2024 18:49:52 GMT Merseymike said:

Thing is, it's a Conservative ward. And even perhaps Labour can win, it's going to very close. Uxbridge couldn't win in 1997 or 2001.

That's a bit of a circular argument. The fact it is a Conservative ward now is the point - it isn't one of their traditional strongholds within the seat - far from it. This ward would clearly have voted Labour in 1997 and 2001.
That said I think one can read too much into local election results, whether that be in Harpenden & Berkhamsted or here. If the polls are anything like replicated at the general election, Labour should finally break their long losing streak here.

How far historically have London mayoral elections reflected the London result at the general election following. Was proportional swing within London reflected in 2000 vs 2001, 2004 vs 2005, and 2008 vs 2010? If it is then it is easy to imagine this and other seats in outer London which would have gone Labour on a uniform swing staying Conservative.